When is the Best Moment to Place Bets On F1 Grand Prix Weekend?

Sunday, March 11, 2012

What goes in your mind just before you place a bet?

“How much will I win?”

“How much will I lose?“

“Am I absolutely sure? Have I missed out on any tip?”

“Will the odds go higher or lower after I have placed the bet?”

“Should I place the bet now? Or should I wait for better odds?”

Do you ask yourself these questions before you place bets?

The truth is, there is never a so called “best moment” to place bets. It is always a compromise between the odds and the information you have.

The following is a summary of the advantages and disadvantages to placing bets at different times of a F1 Grand Prix weekend.

Before Friday Practice Sessions

Longer odds
More variable factors to the race result.

Variable factors:

Weather – change of track condition in qualifying and race.
Mechanical failures.
Crashes in practice sessions.
Better ideas on how the tyres perform on the track.
Odds are more accurate

Post Friday Practice Sessions

Variable factors:

Weather – change of track condition in qualifying and race.
Mechanical failures.
Crashes in practice sessions 3 (less likely than Friday)

Post Saturday Practice Session (Free Practice 3)

Best opportunity to place bets on qualifying results – most teams run qualifying simulation in this session, hence the true pace on qualifying is revealed.
Odds for qualifying results are usually short.

Variable factors:

Weather – change of track condition for qualifying and race.
Surprise early elimination in qualifying stage 1 or 2 due to faulty strategy.

Before the Race

Starting positions are determined.
Better ideas on each driver’s race strategy.
Better ideas on the weather.

Variable factors:

Weather – change of track condition for qualifying and race.
Mechanical failure during the race.
Lap 1, turn 1.
Crashes.
Mistakes on race strategy.
Tyre degradation.

Weather is always a variable factor to the race result. F1 has spent a significant amount of money on the weather radar system, but a lot of times mother natures still get the better of it.

Mechanical failure used to be more frequent in the races, but after the introduction of engine rev limit at 18,000 RPM for all F1 engines, mechanical failure during a GP weekend is less frequent these days.

The result of turn 1 in the first lap dictates the strategy for the remaining of the race. Mark Webber often qualified on front row in 2011, but consistent poor start which prompted him to lose track positions after turn 1 had limited his opportunities to challenge for the race wins.

Crashes during the race are inevitable. Anyone who loses a bet because of the crashes is just unlucky. It is part of motor sport and is out of anyone’s control.

Mistakes on race strategy happen from time to time. The most significant in the recent years of F1 is 2010 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. It cost Alonzo and Ferrari a driver’s title. However F1 teams rarely makes the same strategic mistake twice.

Finally tyre degradation. This has only become an issue since Pirelli became the F1 tyre supplier in 2011. They wanted to makes the race more exciting to watch, hence they designed the tyres that would not last forever. It created a lot of problems for the race engineers as the tyre performance would suddenly drop off. But as the season goes on, and the engineers gather more knowledge on the tyres, this becomes less of a problem.

Some people want longer odds for better reward in investment. Some people want better chances in winning bets, despite having limited reward in investment.

The later the bets are placed in a grand prix weekend, the higher the chance of winning the bet. However the odds are shorter.

Everyone has different mental threshold to risks in betting.

Nevertheless, many aspects of the race need to be considered before placing a bet. Quite often they are not easy decisions. If they were easy, then the odds would be short that it wouldn’t be worthwhile to place a bet on.

At the end of the day, it is up to each individual to determine when is the best moment to place the bets.

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