F1 Malaysian Grand Prix 2012 – Post Race Betting Analysis
Sunday, March 25, 2012
The 2012 Malaysian Grand Prix was an exciting one to watch – at least after the race restart.
The race was red flagged in the early stage due to the weather. Betting a wet weather affected F1 race is usually not a good idea. As we all saw on the podium presentation, no one would have expected a result like that.
Driving the struggling Ferrari, Alonzo won the race in the wet condition. His odds to win before the race start was $51.00!
Sergio Perez almost won the race, he once again showed how tyre friendly his Sauber is, even on a drying track. Furthermore, much credit had to be paid to Sauber for making the right strategy decisions.
Perez’s odds for podium finish before the race would have been beyond $100.00!
A drying track is usually a Jenson Button type of race. Half of his career F1 race victories came from races like this. Unfortunately it was not this time. A collision with Karthikeyan sent him to an extra pit stop. And he was not able to make the intermediate tyres work this time.
Vettel also was a victim to Karthikeyan on the latter stage of the race. He had a punctured left rear tyre after coming to contact with Karthikeyan’s front wing.
Hamilton once again qualified on pole position and finish third. However he did not look as disappointing as he did a week ago in Australia.
For more odds before the race, please go to F1 Malaysian GP 2012 – Post Qualifying Betting Guide.
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F1 Malaysian Grand Prix 2012 – Post Qualifying Betting Guide
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Lewis Hamilton once again will lead McLaren in the front row start for the second race this season. But it is going to be interesting to see how the race will pan out.
This race last year, Hamilton also qualified better than Button, but Button came out on top in the race.
Button finished second to Vettel, meanwhile Hamilton had problem with tyre wear and only managed to finish eighth after having one more pit stop than Button.
After last week’s Australian GP, this is certainly something serious for the punters to consider when placing the bet on the race winner.
The bookmakers currently still has Hamilton as the favourite at $2.10, and followed by Button’s $2.88.
Furthermore, due to the forecast of scattered thunderstorm, the situation is slightly tilted towards Button’s way.
Michael Schumacher qualified third, but the issues with tyre wear during the race in his Mercedes will put question marks on his chances in podium finish.
Webber and Vettel will start the race fourth and fifth respectively – after Raikkonen’s five place grid penalty for replacing the gearbox. Webber is well known for poor start. Vettel on the other hand will start the race in the Pirelli hard tyres.
In the recent two years it has been a common sense to the top ten qualifiers that starting on the harder compound of tyres in the race is not any quicker than the softs. However this year Pirelli has produced their tyres with closer performances. Therefore we will see how Vettel’s gamble will pan out.
In the previous two seasons, Pirelli and Bridgestone tyres have been proved that in the first stint of the race when the cars carry full fuel load, both compounds have the same degradation rate, but the softs has more grip.
In order for Vettel’s race strategy to work, he must make his first stint longer, but still as competitive as his rivals.
Sauber was one of the few teams to use two stops strategy last year. Their cars are well known for the kindness to the tyres. Perez who is starting from tenth is paying $2.00 for top ten finish. Kobayashi who is starting from 17th is paying $3.00 for top ten finish.
Latest Weather Forecast
Sunday – scattered thunderstorm, 24~34 degrees Celsius
Please check the latest blog update for more information.
Post Qualifying Betting Odds:
Race Winner
Hamilton: 2.10
Button: 2.88
Vettel: 7.50
Schumacher: 13.00
Webber: 15.00
Rosberg: 26.00
Alonzo: 51.00
Raikkonen: 51.00
Grojean: 67.00
Massa: 201.00
Podium
Hamilton: 1.36
Button: 1.36
Vettel: 1.83
Schumacher: 2.75
Webber: 2.88
Rosberg: 5.00
Alonzo: 7.50
Raikkonen: 7.50
Grojean: 10.00
Massa: 51.00
Points
Perez: 2.00
Maldonado: 2.10
Hulkenberg: 2.75
Di Resta: 2.75
Senna: 2.75
Kobayashi: 3.00
Ricciardo: 3.25
Vergne: 4.00
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F1 Malaysian Grand Prix 2012 – Post Friday Betting Guide
Saturday, March 24, 2012
The first two practice sessions in Malaysian Grand Prix were not affected by wet weather. Hence the true pace of the cars could be partially interpreted based on their runs and lap times on Friday.
Lewis Hamilton topped both sessions, which shows McLaren still stands on top. His odds to win the race have now dropped from $3.75 to $2.75. Button was the favourite before Friday, but now he is paying $3.00.
Mercedes once again was fast in practice. In FP1, Rosberg and Schumacher were third and fourth respectively. In FP2, Schumacher was second, and Rosberg fourth. They surely have the pace in qualifying, but we will see about their tyre degradation rate during the race.
Red Bull looked like they have some long distance race pace, but you need to qualify well in order to win a race in Formula One. And Red Bull has some work to do in that area.
Last season we frequently saw Vettel got away clean and held onto the race lead after the first turns. This season we will see how he copes with traffic into turn 1.
Hamilton, Button and Vettel are the only drivers whose race winning odds are in single digit at this stage.
Lotus Renault still looks faster than Ferrari. But Kimi Raikkonen is having a five place grid penalty on Sunday’s race as he had to change the gearbox.
Latest Weather Forecast
Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms, 24~32 degrees Celsius
Sunday – Scattered thunderstorms, 24~32 degrees Celsius
Post Friday Practice Sessions Betting Odds:
Race Winner
Hamilton: 2.75
Button: 3.00
Vettel: 4.50
Webber: 13.00
Rosberg: 15.00
Schumacher: 15.00
Raikkonen: 34.00
Alonzo: 34.00
Grojean: 67.00
Massa: 151.00
Podium
Hamilton: 1.45
Button: 1.45
Vettel: 1.62
Webber: 3.50
Rosberg: 3.75
Schumacher: 4.00
Raikkonen: 6.00
Alonzo: 6.00
Grojean: 10.00
Massa: 26.00
Points
Hulkenberg: 2.37
Di Resta: 2.37
Perez: 2.25
Kobayashi: 2.37
Maldonado: 2.75
Ricciardo: 2.75
Senna: 3.50
Vergne: 3.25
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F1 Malaysian Grand Prix 2012 – Pre Weekend Betting Guide
Thursday, March 22, 2012
The following are the variable factors to the race that a punter must consider before placing a bet.
Tyre Compounds: Medium/Hard
Weather Forecast
Friday – scattered thunderstorm, 23 ~32 degrees Celsius
Saturday – scattered thunderstorm, 24 ~32 degrees Celsius
Sunday – scattered thunderstorm, 24 ~31 degrees Celsius
The weather forecast already reveals its unpredictability this weekend.
After winning the Australian Grand Prix, Jenson Button is now the favourite to win Malaysian Grand Prix.
However even in the dry condition, the track characteristic and the tyre compound are different to that of Albert Park in Melbourne. The performances of each car would be different too.
It will be interesting to see if McLaren still has the pace this weekend, and if Button still has the edge over Hamilton, or if Hamilton can get one back at Button.
Mercedes looked very strong in the practice sessions in Australian Grand Prix, but tyre wear during the race is still the problem. This should be considered before placing a bet on Mercedes this weekend.
Please check the latest blog update for more information.
Pre Weekend Betting Odds:
Race Winner
Button: 3.25
Hamilton: 3.75
Vettel: 3.75
Webber: 10.00
Alonzo: 21.00
Rosberg: 21.00
Schumacher: 21.00
Raikkonen: 26.00
Grojean: 51.00
Massa: 101.00
Podium
Vettel: 1.53
Hamilton: 1.53
Button: 1.53
Webber: 2.75
Alonzo: 4.50
Rosberg: 5.50
Raikkonen: 5.50
Schumacher: 6.00
Grojean: 11.00
Massa: 21.00
Points
Hulkenberg: 2.20
Di Resta: 2.20
Perez: 2.25
Kobayashi: 2.50
Maldonado: 2.75
Ricciardo: 3.50
Senna: 3.50
Vergne: 4.00
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F1 Malaysian Grand Prix 2012
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
The circuit of Malaysian Grand Prix – Sepang is a completely different track to Albert Park in Melbourne, Australia.
Unlike Albert Park, Sepang is a proper racetrack. It features two main straights and high speed corners.
The two main straights allow more overtaking with the aid of DRS, and the high speed corners put tyres under higher stress.
This week Pirelli has brought the medium and hard tyre compound to the race.
Last year there was a mix of two three and four stops strategies within the top ten finishers. The winner Sebastian Vettel and the other two podium finishers – Button and Heidfeld all used three stops strategy. Meanwhile Webber, Alonzo and Hamilton stopped four times. Kobayashi only stopped twice.
Due to the characteristic of the first two corners – long right hand turn followed by a sharp left hand turn, this track had often given the driver starting from P2 an advantage in taking the race lead after the first two turns.
However hours before the race last year, pole position was shifted from the left hand side to the right hand side of the racetrack. We will see whether they remain it that way this year.
Weather is always a concern in Malaysian Grand Prix. It is the monsoon season, storms can come and go quicker than anyone can react.
The following are the features of Sepang Circuit:
First Race: 1999
Track Length: 5.54 km
Laps: 56
Corners: 15
Direction: Clockwise
Lap Record: 1:34:223 Juan Pablo Montoya, 2004.
Gear Changes per Lap: 53
Safety Car Probability: 20%
Winners From Pole Position: 7(out of 13 races)
Last Year Winner: Sebastian Vettel
Pit Lane
The aerodynamic set up to the cars is medium/high down force.
70% of the lap is spent on full throttle, and 15% of the lap is spent on braking.
153kg of fuel is required for the race distance. For each 10kg of fuel carried onboard the car, it slows the car by 0.34 sec/lap. The fuel consumption on this track is medium/high.
Pit stop takes 22.5 seconds.
Last year Pirelli had brought the soft and the hard compound to Malaysia. Before the race it was predicted to be a four stops race, but three stops turned out to be the standard strategy last year.
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F1 Championship Betting Odds Update – Post Australian Grand Prix 2012
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
The first race of the year – Australian Grand Prix have got under way. It is worth mentioning that statistically there is a high percentage of Australian Grand Prix winner who turn out to be the winner of the driver’s title in the same year.
In the last ten Australian Grand Prix, seven times the winners were crowned the world champions at the end of the season.
This means Jenson Button is sitting at a comfortable position now to win the driver’s title in 2012. He had a brilliant drive at the Australian GP, outperformed teammate Lewis Hamilton just about in every way apart from qualifying.
The following are the odds for the driver and constructor’s championship.
Driver’s Championship:
Button (25pts): 2.88
Vettel (18pts): 3.00
Hamilton (15pts): 3.75
Webber (12pts): 17.00
Alonzo (10pts): 17.00
Rosberg (0pts): 26.00
Raikkonen (6pts): 34.00
Schumacher (0pts): 34.00
Grojean (0pts): 101.00
Massa (0pts): 251.00
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2012 Australian Grand Prix – Post Race Betting Analysis
Monday, March 19, 2012
The first race of the season was finally on the way. The result was rather surprising.
Red Bull was thought to be the leading team on the grid, but it was not anymore after qualifying fifth and sixth. Although Vettel had a good race to finish in second place.
Vettel’s odds to finish on podium were $2.25.
McLaren on the other hand showed their early season dominance with a 1-2 start for the race with Hamilton on pole position. But it was Jenson Button who was the man to beat during the race.
Judging at Button’ pace in the race, even if Hamilton still kept the lead in turn 1, Button would have overtaken Hamilton in the pit stops or on the track.
Button’s odds to win the race prior to the race start were $3.25.
Ferrari had a disappointing qualifying session. Alonzo spun out in qualifying, therefore had to start the race from 12th. But he managed to finish the race 5th, which was a great effort. Massa was a full disappointment. Started the race 16th and finished with a retirement in the garage.
Mercedes looked very strong in the practice sessions. But their qualifying result was average and the race was not better. Schumacher’s 3rd position early in the race was under threat from Vettel and he retired with a gearbox problem soon after. Nico Rosberg qualified seventh, but only finished 12th.
Two stops strategy was the way to go for majority of the teams. Unlike last year, there were no three stoppers in top 10. Only Sergio Perez who used the same one stop strategy as last year, and it once again paid off.
Please go to F1 Australian Grand Prix 2012 – Post Friday Practice Sessions Betting Guide and Post Qualifying Betting Guide for odds before the race.
Many Australian Grand Prix winners have turned out to be the eventual World Champions for the season. This has turned out to be a great start for Jenson Button. Please go to News for the preseason world championship odds.
The next race is the following weekend in Malaysia. The racetrack is completely different to Albert Park in Melbourne, Australia. Hence the result will likely be different!
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2012 Australian Grand Prix – Post Qualifying Betting Guide
Saturday, March 17, 2012
As the first qualifying session was over, it was clear that Red Bull does not have the advantage they had last year.
McLaren locked the front row with Hamilton on pole position. And with Grojean starting from third for the race, it looks like McLaren has the race victory in the bag.
Last year the race strategy for the race winner was a two stops strategy. We will see what the McLarens do today!
Red Bull only managed to qualify fifth and sixth. Mercedes had looked very strong in the practice sessions, but Schumacher only managed to qualify fourth, and Rosberg seventh.
Schumacher has a good chance of a podium finish in the race today!
Ferrari had a disappointing qualifying. Alonzo spun out in qualifying sessions 2, but still managed to set a lap time and qualified in front of Massa, who is 16th.
Latest Weather Forecast
Sunday – partly cloudy, 12~23 degrees Celsius
Please check the latest blog update for more information.
Post Qualifying Betting Odds:
Race Winner
Hamilton: 2.00
Button: 3.25
Grojean: 17.00
Vettel: 10.00
Schumacher: 13.00
Webber: 17.00
Rosberg: 21.00
Alonzo: 67.00
Podium
Hamilton: 1.36
Button: 1.40
Vettel: 2.25
Schumacher: 2.63
Grojean: 3.75
Webber: 3.25
Rosberg: 4.00
Alonzo: 15.00
Massa: 34.00
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2012 Australian Grand Prix – Post Friday Practice Sessions Betting Guide
Friday, March 16, 2012
The F1 cars finally were rolled out onto the tarmac of Albert Park, unfortunately the weather did not help. Both practice sessions on Friday were affected by rain. However in Both sessions the track was dry towards the end.
Red Bulls looked fast in the corners. They were able to accelerate earlier than other cars in the corner exit. They also sounded much louder in the corners – as if they were still using the blown diffuser.
So it looks like Red Bull is still the team to beat, although their lap times in both Friday practice sessions don’t suggest so.
They should be able to top Free Practice sessions 3 as every team will surely be running qualifying simulation. And the true qualifying pace of most teams will be revealed. If Vettel tops FP3, then another pole position at Australian GP is surely there for him to lose.
Latest Weather Forecast
Saturday – mostly sunny, 13~21 degrees Celsius
Sunday – partly cloudy, 12~23 degrees Celsius
Please check the latest blog update for more information.
Post Friday Practice Betting Odds:
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.63
Hamilton: 5.50
Button: 5.50
Webber: 8.50
Rosberg: 13.00
Schumacher: 13.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Raikkonen: 26.00
Massa: 67.00
Podium
Vettel: 1.45
Hamilton: 1.80
Button: 1.83
Webber: 2.25
Alonzo: 4.00
Rosberg: 4.00
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2012 F1 Australian Grand Prix – Pre Weekend Betting Guide
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
The following are the variable factors to the race that a punter must consider before placing a bet.
Tyre Compounds: Soft/Medium
The new range of Pirelli tyres this year has more rear wheel grip. Hence this is good new for Mark Webber, who often struggled for rear wheel grip last year.
Red Bull is still considered as the fastest car on the track coming into the 2012 Championship. Webber has a good chance to break his podium duck at his home Grand Prix!
Weather Forecast
Friday – rain clearing, 17 ~22 degrees Celsius
Saturday – sunny, 13~22 degrees Celsius
Sunday – clearing shower, 15~22 degrees Celsius
The race begins at 5pm. This means towards the end of the race, the track temperature will drop.
Please check the latest blog update for more information.
Pre Weekend Betting Odds:
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.37
Hamilton: 6.00
Button: 6.50
Webber: 8.00
Alonzo: 11.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Raikkonen: 19.00
Schumacher: 21.00
Massa: 51.00
Podium
Vettel: 1.36
Hamilton: 1.72
Button: 1.83
Webber: 2.00
Alonzo: 3.00
Rosberg: 6.50
Raikkonen: 7.00
Schumacher: 7.50
Massa: 13.00
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When is the Best Moment to Place Bets On F1 Grand Prix Weekend?
Sunday, March 11, 2012
What goes in your mind just before you place a bet?
“How much will I win?”
“How much will I lose?“
“Am I absolutely sure? Have I missed out on any tip?”
“Will the odds go higher or lower after I have placed the bet?”
“Should I place the bet now? Or should I wait for better odds?”
Do you ask yourself these questions before you place bets?
The truth is, there is never a so called “best moment” to place bets. It is always a compromise between the odds and the information you have.
The following is a summary of the advantages and disadvantages to placing bets at different times of a F1 Grand Prix weekend.
Before Friday Practice Sessions
- Longer odds
- More variable factors to the race result.
Variable factors:
- Weather – change of track condition in qualifying and race.
- Mechanical failures.
- Crashes in practice sessions.
- Better ideas on how the tyres perform on the track.
- Odds are more accurate
Post Friday Practice Sessions
Variable factors:
- Weather – change of track condition in qualifying and race.
- Mechanical failures.
- Crashes in practice sessions 3 (less likely than Friday)
Post Saturday Practice Session (Free Practice 3)
- Best opportunity to place bets on qualifying results – most teams run qualifying simulation in this session, hence the true pace on qualifying is revealed.
- Odds for qualifying results are usually short.
Variable factors:
- Weather – change of track condition for qualifying and race.
- Surprise early elimination in qualifying stage 1 or 2 due to faulty strategy.
Before the Race
- Starting positions are determined.
- Better ideas on each driver’s race strategy.
- Better ideas on the weather.
Variable factors:
- Weather – change of track condition for qualifying and race.
- Mechanical failure during the race.
- Lap 1, turn 1.
- Crashes.
- Mistakes on race strategy.
- Tyre degradation.
Weather is always a variable factor to the race result. F1 has spent a significant amount of money on the weather radar system, but a lot of times mother natures still get the better of it.
Mechanical failure used to be more frequent in the races, but after the introduction of engine rev limit at 18,000 RPM for all F1 engines, mechanical failure during a GP weekend is less frequent these days.
The result of turn 1 in the first lap dictates the strategy for the remaining of the race. Mark Webber often qualified on front row in 2011, but consistent poor start which prompted him to lose track positions after turn 1 had limited his opportunities to challenge for the race wins.
Crashes during the race are inevitable. Anyone who loses a bet because of the crashes is just unlucky. It is part of motor sport and is out of anyone’s control.
Mistakes on race strategy happen from time to time. The most significant in the recent years of F1 is 2010 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. It cost Alonzo and Ferrari a driver’s title. However F1 teams rarely makes the same strategic mistake twice.
Finally tyre degradation. This has only become an issue since Pirelli became the F1 tyre supplier in 2011. They wanted to makes the race more exciting to watch, hence they designed the tyres that would not last forever. It created a lot of problems for the race engineers as the tyre performance would suddenly drop off. But as the season goes on, and the engineers gather more knowledge on the tyres, this becomes less of a problem.
Some people want longer odds for better reward in investment. Some people want better chances in winning bets, despite having limited reward in investment.
The later the bets are placed in a grand prix weekend, the higher the chance of winning the bet. However the odds are shorter.
Everyone has different mental threshold to risks in betting.
Nevertheless, many aspects of the race need to be considered before placing a bet. Quite often they are not easy decisions. If they were easy, then the odds would be short that it wouldn’t be worthwhile to place a bet on.
At the end of the day, it is up to each individual to determine when is the best moment to place the bets.
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F1 Australian Grand Prix 2012
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Australian Grand Prix is usually the opening round to a Formula One season.
Each year, F1 teams arrive in Melbourne with high hopes to their upcoming championship campaign.
The street track around the lake of Albert Park creates a wonderful atmosphere to welcome F1 and its global fans to a brand new season.
However the variable weather condition in Melbourne often creates headaches for the engineers. Although it is the end of summer in Australia, the ambient temperature in Melbourne varies from year to year at the grand prix. Sometimes it can be as hot as 30 degrees, but sometimes it can be as cold as 15 degrees.
In the event where track temperature significantly affects the performances of cars, Melbourne certainly creates some headaches to the engineers.
Ever since the Australian GP was shifted to Melbourne, only 8 times out of 16 the winners have come from pole position.
However, in the most recent five years, four times the winners of Australian Grand Prix have come from pole position. The only exception is 2010, when the race started in wet condition. Vettel had pole position, but retired with mechanical failure from the lead.
Furthermore, most Australian Grand Prix winners at Albert Park have also turn out to be the eventual world champion of the season. Hence from a statistics point of view, this is a vital race to the championship.
The following information is crucial to race strategy.
The are 58 laps in the Australian GP, each lap is 5.3km in length and there are 16 corners.
The aerodynamic set up to the cars is medium/high down force.
65% of the lap is spent on full throttle, and 13% of the lap is spent on braking.
152kg of fuel is required for the race distance. For each 10kg of fuel carried onboard the car, it slows the car by 0.34 sec/lap.
The pit stop takes 21 seconds.
It is the first race of the season, therefore everyone will be using a brand new engine and gearbox. Engine and gearbox reliability should not be an issue in this race.
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F1 Post Race Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
The 2011 Brazilian Grand Prix turned out to be a dry race, but the winner was a surprise.
Vettel for the second race in a row suffered mechanical failure. The previous race in Abu Dhabi it was a puncture in the right rear tyre that forced him to retire. This time it was a problem with the gearbox.
Looking at Mark Webber’s performance this year, it was difficult to imagine he would win a race with consistent poor results from the race starts. However Webber pulled himself together on this final race of the year. He maintained second position after the race start, and just when Vettel was forced to slow down due to gearbox problem, Webber was able to inherit Vettel’s position of race leader.
It would have been just another Vettel victory had there been no issue with his gearbox, nevertheless Webber drove brilliantly and finally got himself the first win in the 2011 F1 season.
Mark Webber’s odds to win the race after qualifying were $6.00.
Jenson Button did not have the pace to challenge the Red Bulls in the first stint of the race. He struggled with the new version of Pirelli soft tyres, which is more durable, but perhaps less grip.
Button would have been in a better position to challenge the Red Bulls had there been rain, however it was not the case in Brazilian Grand Prix this year.
The 2011 F1 season is over, the winter break this time is a few weeks shorter than the previous years. That is good news to F1 fans.
The 2012 F1 season will start in Melbourne, Australia on 18th of March. Which is two weeks earlier than the usual time in order to accommodate the 20 races championship.
There will be more races than ever next year, and hopefully there will be more competitions on the championship!
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
The threat of wet weather was there, but it turned out to be a dry qualifying session. As the result, Sebastian Vettel took another pole position and set an all time F1 record of 15 pole positions in one season.
Pirelli’s soft tyre this weekend is said to be more durable than its previous version. Hence there is less likelihood of Vettel’s pace dropping off half way through the race, like he did in Japan.
The threat of wet weather is still there, hence the race will once again be interesting.
Jenson Button has won two of the three wet races this season. Once it starts to rain, or when a wet track is drying up, Button’s race pace will be on a class of his own. His strategy and lap times will be monitored closely by every team.
F1 Betting Strategy
In the dry condition, McLaren should be able to give Red Bull a run for their money. But since it is a Red Bull front row start, there is more chance of Vettel winning another race. Vettel is paying $1.67 to win the race, and Button is paying as far as $5.50.
However the threat of wet weather will not go away. The safest way to bet in wet weather condition is not to bet at all, but if any bet is to be placed, then it has got to be Button to win the race.
It has been said Button is exceptionally brilliant in changeable weather conditions, he may not be as quick as other elite drivers such as Hamilton, Vettel and Alonzo in dry conditions, but his record of victories in wet races makes him stands out from the rest.
It is going to be a long race if it rains, but it surely will not be a boring race to watch!
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $5.50
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.67
Button: 5.50
Webber: 6.00
Hamilton: 8.00
Alonzo: 15.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 81.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Podium
Vettel: 1.17
Button: 1.62
Webber: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.72
Alonzo: 2.20
Massa: 11.00
Rosberg: 13.00
Schumacher: 26.00
Points Finish
Sutil: 1.50
Di Resta: 1.80
Senna: 2.10
Alguersuari: 2.63
Petrov: 2.75
Kobayashi: 2.75
Buemi: 2.75
Barrichello: 3.00
Perez: 3.25
Maldonado: 7.00
Trulli: 34.00
Kovalainen: 34.00
D’Ambrosio: 51.00
Ricciardo: 51.00
Liuzzi: 51.00
Glock: 51.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Friday’s practice times reveals it is close between McLaren and Red Bull. However it is very likely that weather will once again play a part in qualifying.
Last year’s qualifying result was affected by wet weather. It was then Williams driver Nico Hulkenburg who took pole position. The front runners failed to set the fastest time of Q3 at the right time, hence there was a surprising result to qualifying!
Hulkenburg lost his race lead right into turn 1 on the first lap.
On a dry condition, Vettel should once again claim pole position. His odds are currently $1.67. Which is slightly longer than his usual odds before qualifying.
However as mentioned, weather will highly likely play its part in qualifying, hence it is better to keep the hands off the bets at this stage.
F1 Betting Strategy
Jenson Button is definitely the guy to put the money on whenever there is change in weather conditions during the race.
Two of his three victories this season have come from wet races, and six of his 12 F1 career victories have come from wet races.
Such record in wet condition speaks for itself.
Qualifying results will not be as important if the race turns out to be wet.
Given the fact that weather in Sau Paulo is difficult to predict. Any bets placed this weekend will be at higher risk than usual.
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $6.00
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.67
Hamilton: 3.50
Webber: 9.00
Button: 10.00
Alonzo: 21.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 201.00
Schumacher: 201.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.00
Hamilton: 4.00
Button: 6.00
Webber: 8.50
Alonzo: 11.00
Massa: 51.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Hamilton: 1.45
Button: 1.62
Webber: 1.72
Alonzo: 2.20
Massa: 11.00
Rosberg: 26.00
Schumacher: 26.00
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F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
The 2011 Formula One season is coming to an end this weekend in Brazil. It has been three races since Vettel clinched the 2011 title, but there is still one race remaining on the calendar.
After an exciting four ways battle in 2010 season, it is hard to believe 2011 would turn out to be Sebastian Vettel’s one man show.
Brazilian Grand Prix has previously held some epic grand finales, such as in 2007 and 2008, but certainly it won’t be as exciting this year.
Vettel had an unfortunate DNF at the opening lap of Abu Dhabi Grand Prix two weeks ago, but fortunately it happened after he had clinched the title. That is a complete contrast to his 2010 campaign.
Without any surprise, Vettel is still bookmaker’s favourite to win pole position and the race. His odds for pole position is $1.62, and to win the race is $1.83.
The weather is Brazil is unpredictable. There are footages of chaos caused by wet weather everywhere on YouTube in Brazilian GP.
F1 Betting Strategy
Pirelli has brought the soft (yellow) and medium (white) compounds of tyres to Brazilian GP.
However the soft compound is a revised version. It is said to be more durable during the race. It will be interesting to see its performance in practice and qualifying. Most of times this season when Pirelli introduces a new compound of tyres, they have received criticisms from drivers and engineers.
Due to the factors of track, variable weather and tyres, putting bet on Vettel to win the race has higher risks than other races this season.
Firstly Vettel’s tyre performance suffered more degradation than Button on a much similar styled high speed track on Japanese Grand Prix three races ago, hence Vettel did not win the race from pole position.
Secondly the variable weather in Sau Paolo, Brazil means there is a very good chance of the race being held at wet condition. Looking at the record this season, Jenson Button is the way to go whenever the race is affected by rain.
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $6.50
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.62
Hamilton: 4.20
Webber: 8.00
Button: 10.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 201.00
Schumacher: 201.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.83
Button: 6.50
Hamilton: 4.33
Webber: 9.00
Alonzo: 9.00
Massa: 56.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.50
Alonzo: 1.91
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 26.00
Schumacher: 26.00
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F1 World Championship Betting Odds – Post Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Winner Without Vettel:
Button (255 pts): 1.17
Alonzo (245 pts): 4.50
Webber (233 pts): 51.00
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F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix seems to be the place that produces unpredictable results.
In 2009, the first ever Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton was in brilliant form in qualifying. A race victory from pole position seemed at ease, but he had to retire from the lead due to mechanical failure.
In 2010, Fernando Alonzo started the race 3rd, and only needed to finish the race 4th in order to win the driver’s title. But Ferrari made an unusual strategic error that had Alonzo stuck behind a much slower Petrov. Alonzo finished 7th eventually.
This year Sebastian Vettel had the car on pole position, he already pulled out some gap after turn 1, but somehow there was a puncture on his right rear tyre. Vettel’s race only lasted one lap.
Vettel starting from pole position and winning the race seems to be the only thing that has happened in F1 this year. But Abu Dhabi continues to bring unpredictable results. His odds to win the race was as short as $1.62.
Hamilton’s odds to win the race were $4.33.
The overtaking on track has improved from last year with the aid of the double DRS zone.
Tyre degradation during the race was not a problem at all. Most driver used the two stops strategy, just as predicted before the weekend. Mark Webber is the only front runner who stopped three times. He successfully got ahead of Massa and finished 4th.
The final race of the 2011 F1 Championship will be Brazilian Grand Prix in two weeks time.
It is a track that consists of high speed corners. Vettel and Webber have each won the Brazilian Grand Prix in the past two years. However as Jenson Button won Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka this year, which has similar characteristic of high speed corners. It should once again be a tight battle between Red Bull and McLaren.
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Lewis Hamilton and McLaren looked very strong from all practice session to Qualifying Session 2, unfortunately the change in track temperature in Qualifying Session 3 did not allow Hamilton to get the most out of his MP4-26.
Sebastian Vettel took another pole position and equaled Nigel Mansell’s record of most pole positions (14 pole positions) in one season.
After Hamilton topped FP3, the bookmakers altered the odds on pole position. Vettel and Hamilton were equal favourites to win pole position at the odds of $2.10.
Where as prior to FP3 Vettel was $1.53 and Hamilton was $4.50.
Although there would be a much better payoff if Hamilton had won the pole position, the result on Saturday means the race will be easier to predict.
F1 Betting Strategy
Red Bull has many times proven they are faster in the first couple laps of the race. Therefore as long as Vettel maintains the lead and pulls up more than one second lead when the DRS is activated in lap 4, we will likely be seeing the repeats in results of most races this season – where Vettel just drives off to victory.
Vettel is so far unbeaten on the straight line dominant tracks since the summer break. He should have the victory in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at ease. Especially when the tyres will be durable during the race, and overtaking will likely be once again difficult.
Everything is clearly looking good for Vettel to claim the three-peat in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
There is quite a gap between the medium and the soft compounds of the tyres. However the tyre degradation will improve on the latter part of the race when the track temperature cools down.
The variable factor to the race is once again the change in track temperatures after the sun set. McLaren’s performance dropped as the track temperature cooled down in Q3, let’s see if there will be a same trend on Sunday’s race.
Recommended Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.62
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.62
Hamilton: 4.33
Button: 5.00
Webber: 15.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 251.00
Schumacher: 251.00
Podium Finish
Vettel: 1.17
Hamilton: 1.40
Button: 1.45
Webber: 2.10
Alonzo: 2.37
Massa: 15.00
Rosberg: 21.00
Schumacher: 26.00
Petrov: 251.00
Senna: 251.00
Kobayashi: 251.00
Sutil: 151.00
Di Resta: 151.00
Points Finish
Rosberg: 1.22
Schumacher: 1.22
Sutil: 1.62
Di Resta: 1.80
Alguersuari: 2.25
Buemi: 2.10
Petrov: 2.25
Senna: 2.75
Kobayashi: 2.63
Perez: 2.37
Barrichello: 6.50
Maldonado: 8.50
Kovalainen: 34.00
Trulli: 34.00
Glock: 67.00
Ricciardo: 67.00
D’Ambrosio: 67.00
Liuzzi: 67.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, November 12, 2011
McLaren dominated Friday’s practice sessions as Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonzo both crashed out on Free Practice 2.
McLaren looks very strong this weekend. It is highly likely that Hamilton will steal pole position off Red Bull once again this season.
Hamilton’s odds for pole position is 4.50, as opposed to Vettel’s 1.53.
The last time Hamilton pinched pole position off Vettel was in Korean GP. Vettel however overtook the position back in lap 2 of the race, and never gave the lead back to Hamilton.
Red Bull is usually the faster car on the first stint of the race, hence if Hamilton takes pole position in Abu Dhabi, Vettel still has a good chance on winning the race.
F1 Betting Strategy
The circuit in Korean Grand Prix has some similarities with the circuit in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Both have long straights and combine with slow and fast corners.
Looking at the results in Korea, other than the wet weather affected FP1, McLaren topped FP2 and FP3.
McLaren has so far topped FP1 and FP2 in Abu Dhabi, that is a good sign for McLaren to take their second pole position of the year.
Friday’s tyre evaluations shows tyre degradation during the race will not be too bad, the tyres will last even longer after the sun sets and the track temperature lowers. It is predicted that most teams will stop twice during the race.
This track has not been overtaking friendly so far, we will see whether DRS will help to improve the situation. There were not many overtaking actions in the long straight of Indian Grand Prix two weeks ago. And according to Jenson Button, overtaking won’t be easy during the race.
Looking at the results so far on the weekend, it is better to place money on Hamilton to win pole position than Vettel. Given Hamilton’s odds is as long as 4.50!
The race result will highly depend on the qualifying result.
Recommended Bet
- Pole Position – Hamilton 4.50
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.83
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.53
Hamilton: 4.50
Button: 8.50
Webber: 11.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.83
Hamilton: 5.00
Button: 5.50
Webber: 10.00
Alonzo: 10.50
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.57
Hamilton: 1.57
Alonzo: 2.00
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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