F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Singapore Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Sebastian Vettel drove into distance from the race start and never looked back. He claimed his 9th race victory of the season and is one championship point away from officially claiming the 2011 F1 driver’s title.
As anticipated, Vettel took pole position and won the race. The winning bets on this weekend all came from Vettel:
- Pole Position – Vettel 1.50
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.50
Despite the odds being short, the bets were pretty much won at the beginning of qualifying and the race.
Although neither Alguersuari and Kobayashi finished in points, the likelihood of the same bets to pay off in the remaining races is still high.
Singapore Grand Prix is the beginning of the final flyaway stint on the 2011 F1 World Championship calendar.
For most teams the final major upgrade of the cars have completed. Especially with Vettel being only a point away from claiming the title, other teams are more likely to concentrate on the developing their 2012 cars.
From here onwards it is unlikely the paces of teams will vary too much with respect to each other.
We already know Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull have dominated a street track. This further proves they will be competitive on some sectors of Korean Grand Prix and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix race tracks. Which have similar characteristics to street tracks.
The next race is Japanese Grand Prix, it is where Vettel have won in the past two years.
Looks like he will be claiming the world title and a hat trick in Suzuka in two weeks time!
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Singapore Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, September 25, 2011
It looked like Sebastian Vettel had already reserved the pole position before the qualifying session had begun.
Vettel only needed one lap in Q3 to set the pole position lap, where as his rivals had to do two runs just to fight for second. The second placed Mark Webber was three and half tenths slower than Vettel.
The odds for Vettel to win pole position prior to FP3 were 1.50. It was low but it was a certain 50% return of investment.
The threat of wet weather is still there. It will probably be the only aspect that will stop Vettel from winning 2011 Singapore Grand Prix.
Likely Race Strategy
Pirelli is predicting three stop strategies for the front runners and possible one stop strategy for the mid fielders.
As the result of qualifying, we know Hamilton will have less strategy options than his rivals as he punctured one tyre.
As it is a street track, safety car period is highly likely. When the safety car comes out, the drivers who choose to run longer stints are more likely to suffer on the track position.
F1 Betting Strategy
If weather does not play a part in the race, the most certain bet on the market right now is for Vettel to win.
Alonzo successfully held off Vettel this time last year on a slower Ferrari.
Vettel is currently faster than all his rivals including teammate Webber. Hence very likely we will see Vettel driving off into distance and leaving Webber and the McLarens and Ferraris trailing and fighting each other for the remaining of the race.
As long as Vettel stays as the race leader, he will be able to control the race even if there is safety car on the track.
The only aspect the punters need to be aware of is weather.
The other bets worth investing are Alguersuari, Kobayashi or Perez’s points finish bets.
Alguersuari made it to Q2 this time, and will start the race from 16th. Kobayashi crashed out in Q2, he failed to set a time, but should still be able to race on Sunday. Kobayashi will start the race 17th.
The two drivers mentioned above all have proven they can start the race from the back of the pack and still finish within top ten this year.
However Michael Schumacher and the two Force India cars which qualified into Q3 chose not to set a lap time. Schumacher, Sutil and Di Resta will start the race 8th, 9th and 10th respectively.
They too will have a spare set of tyre during the race. Hence they will be a threat to Alguersuari and Kobayashi’s points finish chances.
Recommended Bets
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.50
- Points Finish – Alguersuari 2.50
- Points Finish – Kobayashi 2.20
Weather Forecast
Scattered thunderstorm is still shown on the forecast. The chance of rain is 50% in the evening of Singapore. The ambient temperature will range between 24 to 32 degrees Celsius.
Singapore Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.50
Button: 8.00
Webber: 8.00
Hamilton: 8.50
Alonzo: 10.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Podium Finish
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.72
Webber: 1.72
Hamilton: 1.80
Alonzo: 1.91
Massa: 8.00
Rosberg: 15.00
Schumacher: 19.00
Sutil: 51.00
Di Resta 67.00
Points Finish
Rosberg: 1.25
Schumacher: 1.33
Sutil: 1.67
Di Resta: 1.80
Kobayashi: 2.20
Buemi: 2.50
Perez: 2.20
Alguersuari: 2.50
Senna: 2.75
Petrov: 3.00
Barrichello: 3.25
Maldonado: 3.75
Kovalainen: 26.00
Trulli: 34.00
Glock: 51.00
Ricciardo: 51.00
D’Ambrosio: 51.00
Liuzzi: 51.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Singapore Grand Prix 2011
Friday, September 23, 2011
The kerbs on the streets of Marina Bay were the centre of attention on Friday practice sessions of Singapore Grand Prix 2011.
The start of Free Practice 1 was delayed due to the track work on the kerbs.
Hamilton was the fastest driver in FP1, and Vettel was the fastest driver in FP2. It looked like Vettel and Red Bull still got the upperhand when comparing to McLaren and Ferrari.
Both Vettel’s pole position and race winner odds have shortened since the end of FP2. Vettel’s odds to win pole position are now 1.50, and to win the race is 1.91.
Still the biggest threat to Vettel’s victory may come from the weather.
F1 Betting Strategy
The bookmakers are still highly favouring Vettel to win pole position and the race. This is evident in the odds of the second favourite driver – Hamilton is paying 6.00 to win pole position and 5.50 to win the race.
This shows it is a no brainer to pick anyone other than Vettel to win pole position at this stage.
The race winner could be determined at the conclusion of qualifying session.
Ever since the first race of Singapore Grand Prix in 2008, only in 2008 did the driver starting from pole position failed to win the race.
Felipe Massa was on pole position in 2008 Singapore Grand Prix, however the pit lane drama during the safety car period cost him the race victory and perhaps the driver’s title that year.
The safety car was triggered then Renault driver Nelson Piquet that year, which caused the controversial “Crash Gate” the following year.
The other bet worth keeping an eye on is Alguersuari to finish in top 10, but it depends on where he qualifies and the likely race strategy.
In Italian Grand Prix, Alguersuari’s odds to finish in top 10 after qualifying were 2.88.
Alguersuari is the most consistent driver in being eliminated in the first part of qualifying, but finish the race in top 10 this year. Such scenario has happened in the previous seven races! And the reward on the betting odds have always been generous.
The Singapore Grand Prix has a long pit lane, just like the Italian Grand Prix circuit, hence excess pit stops is unlikely to be the strategy to obtain good results.
Furthermore, Friday practice sessions show both compounds of Pirelli tyres have low degradation.
Pirelli now predicts two to three stops for front runners and possibly one stop for the midfielders.
Nevertheless weather and safety car will play a part in this race. Jenson Button will be included in the race winner discussion if the track is wet during the race.
Recommended Bet:
- Pole Position – Vettel 1.50
Speculating Bet:
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.91
- Points Finish – Alguersuari
Weather Forecast
Despite it did not rain on Friday, weather forecast still suggest possible thunderstorm on Satruday and Sunday. The ambient air temperature will ranges between 25 to 30 degrees Celsius during the day.
Singapore Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.50
Hamilton: 6.00
Webber: 8.50
Alonzo: 8.50
Button: 17.00
Massa: 41.00
Rosberg: 51.00
Schumacher: 67.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.91
Hamilton: 5.50
Alonzo: 5.50
Button: 8.00
Webber: 10.00
Massa: 41.00
Rosberg: 67.00
Schumacher: 81.00
Place
Vettel: 1.28
Hamilton: 1.67
Alonzo: 1.72
Webber: 2.00
Button: 2.00
Massa: 6.00
Rosberg: 10.00
Schumacher: 15.00
Petrov: 51.00
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F1 Pre-Weekend Betting Analysis – Singapore Grand Prix 2011
Friday, September 23, 2011
Singapore Grand Prix is one of the most spectacular F1 GP events in the second half of the championship calendar.
It is held on the streets of Marina Bay in the evening. Where the cars driving underneath the streetlights capture the eyes of millions of people worldwide.
The track characteristic is just like any other street circuit. It is narrow and the walls are always standing there waiting for a driver to make a mistake.
There are 23 turns and the lack of long straights provides limited overtaking opportunities.
This is ideal for betting as overtaking on the track will be difficult throughout the race, hence the race will be more predictable. However this area is prone to evening showers and the weather can well play a part in the race.
Last year the partially wet track provided even less overtaking opportunities in the race. Alonzo started the race on pole position and held off the much faster Vettel for the entire race.
Although there is a different tyre supplier this year, the long pit lane does not allow variety of race strategies. Should it be a dry race, it will be another race to profit from the pole sitter to win the race!
F1 Betting Strategy
After Vettel’s performance in Italian Grand Prix two weeks ago, it is difficult to not put money on him to win pole position and the race. this weekend in Singapore.
As Vettel and Red Bull have proven they are able to win at any type of race tracks this year, their recent form also suggest Vettel can take pole position easily in Singapore.
Vettel have so far won in all street tracks this year in dry condition.
Vettel’s pole position odds are only as short as 1.62 prior to Friday practice sessions. As oppose to 2.00 from Italian Grand Prix.
A good idea would be to place a bit of money on Vettel to win pole position right now, then gradually add on the stakes on Vettel to win the race as the weekend goes along, if things all go Vettel’s way.
It looks like weather will be the only factor that will stop Vettel from taking pole position and winning the race this weekend.
Weather Forecast
The weather forecast shows scattered thunderstorms for each day of the weekend. The ambient air temperature will be on top of around 31 degrees. However since the race will be held at night, the temperature will not be as high during the race.
Singapore Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.62
Hamilton: 6.00
Webber: 7.00
Alonzo: 9.00
Button: 11.00
Massa: 41.00
Rosberg: 51.00
Schumacher: 67.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.00
Hamilton: 4.50
Alonzo: 5.50
Button: 7.50
Webber: 8.50
Massa: 51.00
Rosberg: 67.00
Schumacher: 81.00
Place
Vettel: 1.28
Alonzo: 1.80
Hamilton: 1.67
Button: 1.83
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 6.50
Rosberg: 10.00
Schumacher: 15.00
Petrov: 51.00
Tyre and Race Strategy
Pirelli has brought the supersoft (red) and the soft (yellow) tyres to this race.
The computer simulation shows only one stop is required, however most races this year have turned out to have one more pit stop during the race than predicted.
This is a street track that is dominated by corners. Pirelli have recommended the tyre camber to be 4.25 degrees this weekend.
The time it takes to make a pit stop is around 24 seconds, which is very high. Hence making an extra pit stop during the race will be a major disadvantage unless significant amount of lap times can be gained on the fresh set of tyres.
Only 43% of the race lap is spent on full throttle, hence this is a high fuel consumption track, 2.5kg of fuel is used on each lap.
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