F1 Post Race Betting Analysis – Turkish Grand Prix 2011

Monday, May 9, 2011

It was yet another pole position to race victory for Sebastian Vettel. Who continued to show his brilliant driving skills in 2011. Vettel controlled the race from start to finish yet again, and this time he had the luxury to observe his rival’s strategies towards the end of the race and react to it accordingly.

$57 profit was made after placing $100 on Vettel to win before the race began!

Podium finish positions looked a bit uncertain before the race, as we saw how it panned out in the race. Nevertheless the faster cars went through thanks to the DRS, and eventually Webber who has one of two fastest cars on the grid came through to finish second.

Nico Rosberg had some good pace in qualifying, but when the car was filled up with full load of fuel, it was nowhere near as good.

Alonzo on the other hand was the opposite. He did a great job by staying in fight with Webber towards the final stint of the race.

Race Strategies Debrief

After a tough lesson learnt in the Chinese Grand Prix, Red Bull strategists were better prepared for the race in Turkey. Knowing both of their cars were fast enough to start on the front row, Red Bull decided to save the tyres for the race. And it worked out for both of their drivers.

Despite falling behind Alonzo towards the end of the race, Webber was able to overtake Alonzo and finished where he qualified.

The pre race prediction by Pirelli was that three stops was the way to go. Most people ended up going for Plan B (four stops strategy). Although Vettel could have won the race with three stops, he was precautious by making that one extra pit stop to ensure his tyres didn’t fall off the cliff on the final laps this time.

Jenson Button stuck with Plan A (Three stops strategy) but the strategy backfired as he got held up by the traffic. As we saw in Vettel’s case, Plan A would only work if the car was in clean air, whose fourth pit stop was precautionary rather than necessary.

Lessons Learnt

In the previous season starting second from the grid would be a disadvantage because it is usually on the dirty side of the track. However this isn’t the case any more thanks to DRS.

Having DRS means faster cars will be able to overtake slower cars on track eventually. This is great news to drivers with faster cars.

Whenever there is a new rule introduced in Formula One, there is always a strategy to counter it. Last year with the introduction on banning refuel during the race, the strategy to counter it was to explore the durability of the Bridgestone tyres, hence it led to lack of pit stop actions during the race.

However with the introduction of the new Pirelli tyres this year, which is designed not to last any more than 20 laps, the ultimate strategy to win the race has started to unfold after four races.

We are now looking at saving a set of tyres in qualifying and ensure that the tyres don’t reach the phase of falling off the cliff.

Once everyone starts to settle into the same strategy, then the race will once again be predictable!

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Turkish Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Sebastian Vettel proved in Practice 3 that there was nothing wrong with his car. He later proved that another pole position was just a walk in the park.

Webber was never close enough to be a threat to Vettel’s pole position, but he was confident enough that no one else would be a threat to his first front row start of the season.

So far this weekend there is evidence that Mercedes made a major progress in the three weeks break, but it is unlikely that Rosberg will be a threat to Vettel’s victory on Sunday, especially when another Red Bull is starting in front of him.

Pole sitter Sebastian Vettel is no doubt bookmakers’ favourite to win the race again. This time he only did one run in qualifying and saved the tyres for the race, and so did his rivals. After Chinese Grand Prix the race strategies now begin in qualifying on Saturdays.

Weather Forecast

The sun was out on Saturday and the track temperature was higher. That was more of a normal weather in Turkey. The weather forecast on Sunday reveals it will be somewhat similar to the weather on Saturday. Which is good news for the punters.

Current Odds

The odds for race winner after qualifying are as follow:

Vettel: 1.57

Webber: 5.00

Hamilton: 8.00

Rosberg: 10.00

Button: 21.00

Alonzo: 21.00

Massa: 67.00

Schumacher: 67.00

Petrov: 67.00

Heidfeld: 67.00

With a dry weather forecast ahead of the race, it is unlikely the race winner will go to anyone other than the top 4 bookmakers’ favourites.

Vettel’s odds have dropped down to his qualifying odds. It was not hard to guess as he qualified 4/1oth quicker than teammate Webber, and with Webber being the shield between Vettel and the rest of the field. He will win the race easily unless Webber decides “accidentally” to run into him.

Race Strategies and Tyres

A major lesson learned in China was that tyres and race strategies will determine the race outcomes this year. The characteristics of the race track in Turkey is completely different to that of China, hence different strategies need to be adopted.

There have been talks that it will be a three stops race, and unlike any other races this year there were also talks on the possibilities of two stops or four stops. It sounds like three stops is the only way. So if everyone is going for the same strategy, then there won’t be too many overtaking on track. After all what caused the overtaking in Chinese Grand Prix was the differences in strategies that led to the different grip levels for the cars on the track.

With the three stops strategy, again it is best to do at least the first two stints in soft and bolt on the harder tyres in the end.

What happened in China was that the track did not rubber-in towards the end, and hence the hard tyres on Vettel’s car went off much quicker than the engineers had anticipated.

It is a shorter track in Turkey and hence with more laps to do in the race, the track will definitely rubber-in quicker.

Furthermore, this isn’t an overtaking track. Only turn 1, turn 9 and turn 12 are the ideal spots for overtaking. Although Hamilton overtook Vettel in an odd spot in the Chinese Grand Prix circuit, it was much to do with the significant difference in the tyre grip at the time. Overtaking won’t happen much on this track unless there are teams trying different strategies.

Formula One Betting Strategy

It looks like a certain win from Vettel at this stage. He has shown he is able to conserve the tyres better than his teammate this year and by driving in the clean air with the fastest car on the grid, there is no reason he wouldn’t win unless there is a mechanical failure or a major stuff up by the race engineers.

However there is a question mark on Webber’s 2^nd place finish. In many occasions this year he has been the first few drivers to make the first pit stop. This shows he isn’t able to conserve the tyres as good as most drivers, despite driving the quickest car. His best result so far of 3^rd came from a four stops strategy. Although the penalty of making an extra pit stop isn’t as bad as they were in Malaysia and China as the pit lane is shorter on this track, getting held up by a slower car will be the problem.

Nico Rosberg has looked very strong so far this weekend, but Mercedes’ race pace is yet to be judged. Especially their promising pace in China during the race was contributed by fuel over consumption.

The other two podium positions will be interesting, as we don’t know how soon Webber will pit in the first stint and how quick Mercedes really is. McLaren has also been much quicker in the races than qualifying, and if Sauber and Renault decide to run much longer first stints than everyone else again, they will likely to spoil the outcome of podium finish, but Vettel’s race is unlikely to be spoiled by them as he will be too far ahead.

My Investments

I am investing on the safe bet of Vettel to win the race. The odds is low (lower than it was in Australia), but there is less variable factors in this race than comparing to Chinese Grand Prix, there is more chance of the bet paying off.  Hence:

$100 on Race Winner – Vettel 1.57 (Sportsbet)

This is only the fourth race of the year and hence many creative strategies have yet to be seen during the race. We will see what the brains of the race strategists will serve us today at the Turkish Grand Prix!

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Turkish Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Friday Practice session 1 was wet and the defending world champion became the first victim of it – Crashing out in turn 8. This has damaged his chance in taking another pole position this season, but pole position is perhaps not as important as it has been in the recent years. Getting the best strategies out of the Pirelli tyres will be the key to win races this year.

The bookmakers haven’t dropped the odds after the practice sessions on Friday yet, so this is good news to the punters.

Weather

The air temperature is relatively lower on this year’s Turkish Grand Prix. The forecast suggests 17 degrees Celsius on top this weekend. This news is certainly more welcomed by the Red Bull camp. As their higher down force cars will be able to bring temperature onto the tyres quicker. Hence advantage Red Bull in qualifying.

The most recent weather update shows Saturday will be sunny and Sunday will be partly cloudy.

Current Odds

Vettel’s crash has led to the increase of his odds after Friday. We do not yet know whether his car will be 100% during the qualifying or the race. Vettel’s odds has increased from 2.25 to 2.50, and his pole position odds have gone from 1.67 to 1.73.

All other drivers’ odds have increased slightly as well, this is likely due to the wet weather forecast. Only Rosberg and Schumacher’s odds have dropped massively. This is due to Rosberg topping Friday’s Practice Session 2.

The current odds for race winners are as follow:

Vettel: 2.50

Hamilton: 3.75

Webber: 6.50

Button: 7.50

Alonzo: 11.00

Rosberg: 15.00

Massa: 21.00

Schumacher: 26.00

The odds for pole position:

Vettel: 1.73

Hamilton: 5.50

Webber: 5.50

Button: 11.00

Alonzo: 17.00

Rosberg: 21.00

Massa: 26.00

Schumacher: 51.00

Formula One Betting Strategy

After the Chinese GP three weeks ago, we learnt that there are much more variable factors in the race this year due to the low durability of Pirelli tyres. Hence we will try and shift a bit more focus of betting onto qualifying this weekend.

Pole position will certainly go to one of the three bookmakers’ favourites – Vettel, Hamilton and Webber. Button is out of consideration because his weakness will be exposed by the low track surface temperature this weekend. Although he has recently out-qualified Hamilton, he has always struggled in low track temperature conditions. With the front runners likely to do only one lap in qualifying session three, Button looks handicapped in this situation.

Speculating Bets

Pole Position: Webber 5.50

Pole Position: Hamilton 5.50

Although Vettel has qualified on pole three times out of three this season, his car suffered a major crash on Friday and it probably won’t be 100% in qualifying. Hence this is the best chance Webber and Hamilton will ever get to take pole position this year yet.

5.50 for pole position would be a bargain if Vettel’s pace is limited in qualifying.

My Investments

As mentioned above that there are more variable factors in the races this year, qualifying is perhaps the better place to invest the money.

With the maximum amount of a single bet being $100, I will place $10 each on Webber and Hamilton to take pole position. One of these two bets will certainly lose out if either driver takes pole position, but it is worth it when the odds is this high.

Continuing from the yesterday’s post, I will place $5 on Massa to beat Alonzo in qualifying, however such betting option isn’t available on the bookmakers’ website yet.

Hence the following are my officialbets:

$10 on Pole Position – Webber 5.50

$10 on Pole Position – Hamilton 5.50

I will not place the bets until qualifying begins, as weather and track temperature is still a concern. No bets will be placed if the track is not dry.

F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Turkish Grand Prix 2011

Thursday, May 5, 2011

The odds are again favouring Vettel for both pole position and the win. Red Bull has always been quicker in qualifying, but not as quick on race days. Hence Vettel is paying 1.67 for pole position and 2.25 for race win.

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast shows possible wet weather across the whole weekend. Which is quite uncommon on this event. Last year there was no rain forecast throughout the entire weekend at all, but a few drops of rain appeared suddenly just before Webber and Vettel crashed into each other. Perhaps it was Bernie Ecclestone’s artificial rain!

Tyres

The tyres that will be used this weekend will again be the soft and the hard compounds of Pirelli tyres. Which are the only compounds that have been used so far this season. There should be some reasonable understanding on these tyres by now.

As we learnt in Shanghai, the lap times on these tyres tend to stay consistent until a certain point, then they “fall off the cliff”.

The discussion of tyres on this track must involve the well known turn 8. This single turn consists of four apex, efficient down force is required to ensure the car hits every single apex with good stability.

Odds

The current odds for major team drivers are as follow:

Vettel: 2.25

Hamilton: 3.50

Webber: 6.00

Button: 8.00

Alonzo: 13.00

Massa: 21.00

Schumacher: 51.00

Rosberg: 34.00

The odds for pole position:

Vettel: 1.67

Hamilton: 5.00

Webber: 5.00

Button: 11.00

Alonzo: 17.00

Massa: 34.00

Schumacher: 67.00

Rosberg: 51.00

Speculating Bets

Alonzo vs. Massa – Massa 2.70

Massa has been doing well this season so far against fellow teammate Alonzo. This is one of the tracks Massa masters, so it is reasonable to put money on Massa to beat Alonzo this weekend.

Massa has previously won at this place three times (2006 ~2008). In all three occasions he won the races from pole position. It is unlikely he will have the car to challenge for the win this weekend, but his luck and skill on this track should be enough to beat the two time world champion!