F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Monaco Grand Prix 2011

Monday, May 30, 2011

Sebastian Vettel became just another driver who won Monaco Grand Prix from pole position, but he needed more than the pole position to win the race.

It was strategy, safety car and red flag that got Vettel his first Monaco Grand Prix victory.

Nevertheless prior to the race $100 was placed on Vettel to win the race at the odds of 1.50, despite the first pit stop drama and the tyre condition towards the end of the race, the bet paid off!

The speculation on Button not to finish on podium with Webber was correct as well! As it turned out Webber’s podium hope was dashed when he had to line up behind Vettel in the first pit stop.

Race Strategy Debrief

The three podium finishers each had a different strategy. Vettel pitted once, Alonzo twice and Button three times.

In the previous races, using the strategy of “undercut” was the way to over take cars in pit stops. In Monaco Grand Prix 2011, “over cut” was the way to go!

All three drivers started the race on the super soft tyres. However Vettel and Alonzo switched to the soft tyres after the first pit stop, while Button stayed on the super soft.

Button was on the more conventional strategy, which has been used for most of the times in the recent years – option (the softer compound) tyres in the first two stints, then prime (the harder compound) tyres in the final stint.

The Thursday practice sessions showed the degradation rate of the tyre was low. And this is what prompted many teams such as Red Bull and Ferrari to switch to the prime tyres after the first stop.

Due to Red Bull’s mistake at the first pit stop, Button was able to jump Vettel and drive away in the super soft tyres.

When Button made the second pit stop in lap 33, he bolted on another set of super soft.

It was clear at this stage that he was to make at least one more pit stop than Vettel. Who already have used both compounds of the tyres in the race.

Nevertheless Vettel’s one stop strategy was a surprise. Couple of race ago he lost the Chinese Grand Prix because he was on the soft tyres for too long.

It looked like he was about to make the same mistake again in Monaco, but the width of the track and the red flag saved his day.

Alonzo again had a great start. And this time he was able to make his pace last the entire grand prix distance. However the narrow side walls on the streets of Monaco prevented him from overtaking Vettel for the victory.

Mark Webber was once again vulnerable off the start. Despite losing a position to Alonzo at the start, his podium hope diminished to zero after Red Bull’s first pit stop drama.

Here is an interesting fact – Mark Webber has had set the fastest race laps in the last four races. Unfortunately this means nothing for the championship, but this could perhaps be something worth investing the money on in the future races!

In the past we have seen Kimi Raikkonen setting the fastest laps race after race, but failing to finish the race strong.

The next race is Canadian Grand Prix. Where the same tyres will be used.

The track temperature played a vital part to tyre degradation in last year’s Canadian GP. We will see how well Pirelli cope with the track in two weeks time!

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Monaco Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, May 29, 2011

There is always a victim of traffic or accident in qualifying of Monaco Grand Prix. This year it is Lewis Hamilton.

Hamilton was firstly held up by Massa on his flying lap in qualifying session 3, then his second attempt at pole position was ruined by Perez’s crash, which caused the session to be red flagged with about two minutes to go.

There were still enough time for Hamilton to set a lap time when the session was green flagged again, but as the track condition had changed, there was nothing he could do to stop Vettel from taking another pole position.

Furthermore after qualifying Hamilton received a two places grid penalty for jumping the chicane on his fastest lap. This means he will start Sunday’s race from 9^th instead of 7^th.

On any other track, this would be game over for Hamilton, but to take the positive out of the negative, this is Monaco. The situation could be turned around any time during the race.

If anyone still recalls Hamilton’s victory from 2008 Monaco Grand Prix. His mistake of hitting the wall early in the race was the set up for his eventual race victory.

The early pit stop allowed his team to make a better judgment on strategy at the latter part of the race.

However unlike 2008, it does not look like weather will play apart in Monaco GP this year. So McLaren race strategists will have to rely on safety car and someone else’s misfortune.

Post Qualifying Odds

Race Winner

Vettel: 1.50

Button: 5.50

Webber: 8.00

Alonzo: 11.00

Hamilton: 13.00

Massa: 41.00

Rosberg: 67.00

Schumacher: 67.00

Petrov: 151.00

Heidfeld 151.00

Formula One Betting Strategy

Due to all the possible race outcome changing factors in Monaco Grand Prix, it is best to hold back on the amount of investment this weekend.

The safest bet for the race is certainly having safety car, but since everybody including the bookmakers know it, the odds are ridiculously low.

Other than the safety car bet, Vettel to win the race from pole position will be the most likely scenario in this unpredictable Monaco Grand Prix.

In the season where there are more overtakings, Mark Webber failed to win on a pole position friendly track last weekend. However Vettel looks like he can finish the job this time in the other pole position friendly track.

He is on top of his form, and the guy who had a chance to beat him a week ago is starting the race 9^th.

Other than Vettel’s race winning bet, everything else seems up in the air.

Webber may have the right tool, but being almost directly behind Vettel, he will for sure be the victim of strategy during the race. Many times before we have seen teams lining up the cars in the pit stops in Monaco.

Webber’s podium finish at the odds of 1.67 might not be worth the investment.

Recommended Bets

My investment is definitely on Vettel to win the race. The track history is on his side and his performance this year makes me confident that he will finish the job this weekend.

Winning Monaco Grand Prix requires mental toughness from the driver. And there is no doubt Vettel has such quality.

• $100 on Race Winner – Vettel 1.50

Speculating Bets

• Combination Podium Finish – Will Vettel and Webber finish on podium – No  2.00

New Safety Car Rule

Over the years there have been few changes in safety car rules. There is another minor change to the safety car rules this year:

“During a safety car period the pit exit light will remain green for the duration, unless the race is subsequently suspended. Other than when the safety car has been asked to use the pit lane, no car may entre the pits while the safety car is deployed unless it is for the purpose of changing tyres.”

There has not been a safety car period this year. Therefore we don’t know how this new rule will affect the result of the race. We will certainly find out after this race!

Race and Tyre Strategy

The certainty of having safety car periods in Monaco Grand Prix means Vettel cannot get away this time. Every time he stretches out the lead, safety car will bring the margin right back.

This will likely be a three stops race, although some say it could be done in two stops.

It all depends on when the safety car comes out. An unnecessary final pit stop will be made when the leaders find themselves having generous leads towards the end of the race. This is to prevent the sudden safety car periods that compress the field and crushing their leads down to nothing. So in this case they still have the fresh rubbers to defend their positions.

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Monaco Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Monaco Grand Prix 2011 has finally got under way. Thursday’s practice sessions shows that the tyres’ degradation rate is far better than expected.

This has changed the predicted race strategy. This circuit has almost no overtaking opportunity. Two stops strategy may be the way to go!

However this track is prone to have safety car during the race. Whenever there is safety car period in Monaco Grand Prix, drivers have to work hard to keep the tyres and suspensions warm. Furthermore, race strategists have to work even harder!

Formula One Betting Odds

Vettel remains the favourite to win pole position and the race. However his record on this track is not as good as his rival’s. Webber, Button, Hamilton and Alonzo are all previous winners of Monaco Grand Prix.

Pole Pisition

Vettel: 1.73

Hamilton: 7.00

Webber: 5.00

Button: 26.00

Alonzo: 6.50

Rosberg: 26.00

Massa: 34.00

Schumacher: 67.00

Race Winner

Vettel: 2.00

Hamilton: 5.00

Webber: 6.50

Button: 15.00

Alonzo: 5.50

Rosberg: 21.00

Massa: 41.00

Schumacher: 51.00

Formula One Betting Strategy

Due to the almost certainty of having multiple safety car periods in Monaco Grand Prix, this is always the most difficult race to predict in dry condition.

The history of the race and the lack of overtaking opportunity on the track suggest the safest place to put money is for the pole sitter to win the race.

Unfortunately there is higher risk of betting on pole position this week. This is due to many reasons such as the tendency of a fast car being held up by traffic in qualifying, and the records of Vettel’s rivals in Monaco Grand Prix.

Placing the bets after qualifying is always the smart move in Monaco.

Race Strategy

If you have been following Formula One closely this year, then you would know the race strategies all begin in Saturday’s qualifying sessions.

This is certainly going to be race engineers and strategists’ most stressful weekend.

They have to find a gap to place their cars on track in order to get the maximum pace in qualifying. And if they were unfortunately held up, then they have to think about whether to burn a set of tyres in qualifying for a better starting position. And how long the tyres will last in the first stint of the race.

All these decisions have to be made within a few seconds.

Qualifying is certainly going to be interesting from the strategy point of view, let’s sit back and watch how qualifying will pan out!

F1 Pre-Weekend Betting Analysis – Monaco Grand Prix 2011

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Monaco Grand Prix is always the highlight of a Formula One season. The scenery, the yachts, the harbor and the narrow street tracks makes it special.

It is also special from the engineers’ pespective, the set ups of the cars are completely different to all other tracks. The track surface is bumpy, slippery, and the gear ratios are shorter.

One other special feature of Monaco GP is that there are no Friday practice sessions. Instead the first two practice sessions on the weekend are held on Thursday.

Formula One Betting Odds

Pole Position:

• Vettel 1.62
• Webber 3.00
• Alonzo 13.00
• Hamilton 9.00
• Button 19.00
• Rosberg 34.00
• Massa 51.00
• Schumacher 51.00

Race Winner:

• Vettel 1.83
• Webber 5.50
• Alonzo 9.50
• Hamilton 5.50
• Button 15.00
• Rosberg 34.00
• Massa 51.00
• Schumacher 67.00

Recommended Bets

It is always difficult to pick the winner of Monaco Grand Prix before the weekend. Investing on the pole position winner to win the race is usually the safest bet.

Placing bets before the weekend involves the risks of cars crashing out in practice. This happens quite often in Monaco.

After surviving the practice sessions, there is also chance of being caught up by slower cars in qualifying and have early exits.

Therefore just as usual, I would wait till the end of qualifying to place my bets!

Weather Forecast

The weather is all clear on the weekend. The temperature is on top of 24 degrees, so much like the weather in Spain last weekend.

Tyre

Due to the nature of street track, the track surface is slippery. This means more mechanical grip from the tyres is required.

Pirelli has brought the soft and the super soft compound to this race. This will be the debut for Pirelli’s super soft compound.

When Pirelli brought out the new version of the hard compound a week ago, it received nothing but criticism from the drivers. Let’s see what the drivers will say about the two new tyre compounds after Thursday practice sessions.

The differences in tyre grip during the race is the reason for the increase of overtaking this season. However it seems overtaking will still be difficult this weekend.

There was already an evidence of it back in 2005. When Alonzo was driving for Renault, Webber and Heidfeld were both driving for BMW Williams.

It was the season where only one set of tyres was allowed in a race.

Towards the end of the race, Alonzo’s tyres were in poor condition and he was holding up the much faster Webber and Heidfeld. For strategic reasons Heidfeld was made to make the final pit stop before Webber. It turned out Alonzo was too slow that Heidfeld was able to make up the time lost in pit stop and caught up to Webber, who despite having a much faster was unable to pass Alonzo.

Both Williams cars managed to overtake Alonzo eventually, but Webber lost a position because he was held up behind Alonzo for too long.

This example shows the difficulty of overtaking on the street of Monaco, even when there are great differences in tyre grip.

Race Strategy

This Monaco track is short. A normal grand prix is about 305km. Monaco Grand Prix is only 260km. This is a shorter track with high demand in down force and gearbox, but low demand in engine and brakes.

Presumably “undercut” will not be a great strategy during the race. There is more chance of being caught in the traffic after an early pit stop. Being a short and difficult overtaking track, finding a gap between the traffic after pit stops will be the key to good results.