F1 Post Race Betting Analysis – Malaysian Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, April 10, 2011

It was an exciting race to watch. There were overtaking, pit stops, dramas and different strategies during the race at the Malaysian Grand Prix 2011. And strangely weather did not take a part in any of these.

Unfortunately it wasn’t the day for betting. The first bet of Hamilton to lead after lap 1 was out the window when Charlie Whiting decided to switch the sides on the starting positions over night. This shows the importance of placing the bets late in order to gather as much information as possible.

The second bet of Hamilton to lead on lap 10 never materialised as Heidfeld had the better of Hamilton into turn 1. Mark Webber once again pitted early. However Vettel was able to stay longer than Hamilton in the first stint. This shows the importance of being in clean air.

Hamilton’s chance of winning the race was half ruined after turn 1, however at one stage during the race he caught up to Vettel and was less than 4 seconds behind. The question is why Hamilton pitted for the hard tyres when all other drivers around him went for the soft tyres? We will find out in a few days.

Results

The bets for this race were:

1. $20 on Leader after 1 lap – Lewis Hamilton 3.50 (bet 365)
2. $10 on Leader after 10 laps – Lewis Hamilton 3.50 (bet365)
3. $40 on Race winner – Lewis Hamilton 3.50 (Sportsbet)

The result was 0/3. The loss on this round is $70. With $43 winning from Melbourne two weeks ago, the overall season betting result is $27 loss at the moment. It is still early in the season, 17 races to go, plenty of opportunity to make money!

Lessons Learnt

Never walk away a race empty handed. There were lessons learnt in this race that will help us understand the race better in the future.

Firstly it looks like the best tyre strategy again is to use soft tyres first, then the hard tyres in the final stints. Webber bolted on the hard tyres early in Australia and Hamilton did the same today. Both had poor lap times on the stints.

Secondly the Drag Reduction System has proved that they work, but definitely nowhere near as effective as expected. The evidence of Hamilton getting held up by Heidfeld in the first stint shows it is still difficult to overtake behind the dirty air of another car. Even in a track like this where there are two main straights.

Therefore starting the race from pole position is still as important as it was before. Visit us at http://www.liveformulaone.com

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Malaysian Grand Prix

Sunday, April 10, 2011

The rain still hasn’t arrived in Sepang, but the qualifying session on Saturday didn’t need it to make it any more exciting.

Sebastian Vettel once again had the edge on everyone else, another pole position in the record book. However this time Lewis Hamilton made him work for it.

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast remains the same, possible thunderstorm. The chance of rain has increased to 60%.

Tyres

Predicting the tyre degradation during the race is easier this race, as the same soft and hard compound of Pirelli tyres are still being used. It is expected by almost everyone that there will be more pit stops than there were in Melbourne two weeks ago.

In Melbourne we saw the best strategy to maximise the speed with tyre use during the race was to use the soft tyres, and finish the final stint of the race with the hard tyres. It is the same scenario as the Bridgestone tyres last year. When the car is heavy at the beginning of the race, both tyre compounds wear out at the same rate. Hence it is better to use the soft tyres to get some quick laps done before they are worn out. The same should happen here in Sepang. Except there will be one or two more pit stops. With three to four stints in the race, the best strategy will probably still be using the hard tyres in the final stints only. When there are more grips on track.

Formula One Betting Strategy

The odds on race winners haven’t dropped too much as the threat of rain remains.

After the starting grid has been sorted, there are more betting options available.

As opposed to last race where Vettel led the race almost from start to finish, Hamilton should be able to challenge Vettel this time. This is due to the circuit layout and tyre degradation.

Turn 2 on this track Sepang gives a great opportunity to overtake, especially in first lap. A good example on this one would be Fernando Alonzo and Lewis Hamilton’s overtake on Felipe Massa in 2007. Both McLarens took over the lead from lap 1 turn 2, and had a 1-2 finish in that race.

As we have seen in Melbourne that McLaren can look after its tyres better than Red Bull during the race. This gives two opportunities for Hamilton to overtake Vettel and control the race. The first one is obviously lap 1 turn 2, then second opportunity would be using the pit stops. Hamilton should have a 50% chance winning this race in dry condition!

Speculating Bets

Having said the above. The most viable bets would be leader after 1 lap and leader after 10 laps. And this applies to wet weather conditions too!

So the following are my speculating bets:

Leader after 1 lap – Lewis Hamilton 3.50 (bet 365)

Leader after 10 laps – Lewis Hamilton 3.50 (bet365)

Race winner – Lewis Hamilton 3.50

Hamilton has a great record in gaining positions off the start. In a circuit like Sepang where it is friendly to the car starting from P2, 3.50 is a very good value.

Mark Webber pitted as early as lap 11 on a 58 laps Australian GP. There are 56 laps in Malaysian GP and with the higher tyre degradation during the race, there is a chance Vettel might pit around lap 10. A safer bet would be Lewis Hamilton to lead after 15 laps, but such bet isn’t available at this stage. It will likely be available in live betting.

All these bets are made worthwhile because the favourite – Vettel’s odds are all sub 2.00. With 50-50 chance for either driver to win the race, Hamilton is the better bet!

My $$$$

Please be mindful that the threat of rain still remains and as long as there is a race in Sepang, it won’t go away, despite whatever the weather forecast, the rain can come and go quicker than anyone could imagine. My suggestion is to place the bets just before the race begins, we will have the most updated local weather and forecast by then.

The stake in this race obviously needs to be reduced due to the threat of rain. And also two weeks ago in Melbourne we were betting on the unlikelihood of Vettel having a DNF, this time we are betting on the Vettel to make mistake in turn 1, and McLaren to conserve its tyres during the race.

With the maximum amount of value in all of my bets being $100, the following are where my $$$$ will be:

1. $20 on Leader after 1 lap – Lewis Hamilton 3.50 (bet 365)
2. $10 on Leader after 10 laps – Lewis Hamilton 3.50 (bet365)
3. $40 on Race winner – Lewis Hamilton 3.50 (Sportsbet)

The 2^nd betting of Hamilton to be the leader after 10 laps is less likely to happen if he does not overtake Vettel in turn 2. Hence if he does not do so, I would abandon this bet and invest on Hamilton to lead after 15 laps as soon as it is available on live betting.

Let’s hope the weather forecast is incorrect once again, a dry race will increase our chance in making $$$.

PreF1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Malaysian Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, April 9, 2011

The two Friday practice sessions were dry and Red Bull again dominated, but this time it was Mark Webber. Perhaps after a disappointing home race in Australian, he felt he needed to go out there to prove something.

This is Mark Webber’s track – well, at least in qualifying. He qualified on front row twice. One being last year and the other was back in the days with Jaguar.

Weather Forecast

Wet weather is still on the forecast. There is scattered thunderstorm in the afternoon with 40% chance of rain. You never know when it will arrive. Punters will need to bare this fact in mind throughout the weekend.

Tyres

The tyre evaluation on Friday proved what experts had predicted. It looks like the tyre degradation will be worse than Melbourne two weeks ago. Most drivers in Melbourne had two or three pit stops during the race, we will likely see three or four in this race.

Formula One Betting Strategy

Right now the conservative betting strategy is to still stay in observation mode until the starting positions are sorted. In wet weather condition the risk of betting increase dramatically, unless the reward is relatively high, there is no point in taking the risk.

Speculating Bets

There are more betting options available now on sportsbet.com.au, and hence there are more speculating bets.

Currently the odds for Red Bull to take pole position is as low as 1.11. The second favourite is McLaren at 7.00. With the possibility of weather playing a hand, investing on any team other than Red Bull to take pole position is not a bad idea!

Last year in Brazilian GP we saw William’s rookie Nico Hulkenberg taking pole position. And with the new Pirelli tyres this year, one team might just be able to excel at the Pirelli wet tyres.

The following are the current odds of qualifying winning make at sportsbet.com.au:

Red Bull                1.11

McLaren               7.00

Ferrari                   15.00

Mercedes              26.00

Any other team   34.00

My $$$$

My money is still staying in my pocket at this time. With Webber topping both Friday practice sessions, it has brought more uncertainty into Vettel’s winning chances.

This is a completely different track to Melbourne, and with the new Pirelli tyres, much observation and research still needs to be done.

F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Malaysian Grand Prix 2011

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Two years ago, Malaysian GP was well known for its local weather of high temperature and high humidity. Drivers coming to this race often talked about how to stay focused and hydrated during the race.

Ever since Formula One decided to move the local race time a few hours later to boost the TV rating in Europe, the problems the drivers face are completely different, it is now whether it will rain, and which tyres/strategy to use.

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast isn’t looking good for Formula One betting coming into this weekend, but certainly it looks good for Bernie Ecclestone. The typical Malaysian monsoon weather is forecasted again for the weekend. Weather has played vital parts in the results of the previous two Malaysian GPs. Last year Mark Webber took a gamble during the wet qualifying session and put himself on pole position. In 2009 the race was suspended due to heavy rain and only half of the championship points were awarded to the drivers.

Tyres

The tyres that will be used in Malaysian GP will be the same as the ones used in Australian GP – the soft compound and the hard compound. However we will perhaps see some different result in terms of tyre degradation this time, and hence this will affect the number of pit stops during the race. This is due to the layout of the circuit where there are more high speed corners, the tyres will be under high lateral pressure for a longer period of time.

Formula One Betting Strategy

With the probability of a wet race, the best plan is to stick with the golden rule of Formula One betting – Stay away when it is wet.

Speculating Bets

The speculating bets right now would be Sebastian Vettel for pole position at $1.67. Red Bull has the highest down force aerodynamic package, hence if it turns out to be a wet qualifying session, Vettel should be able to come out on top.

As for the race, it is highly likely the starting order will be shuffled in a wet qualifying session, so it would be a good idea to place the bet at least after qualifying.

My $$$

Right now my $$$ will stay in my pocket. The risk of placing a bet at this stage is too high due to the unpredictable weather. A close observation on the latest weather update will be required throughout the weekend.

If weather wasn’t a factor, then I would most likely put my money on Vettel for win. The reigning World Champion showed he is in a class of his own two weeks ago in Australia. However his teammate Mark Webber’s form will need to be monitored after a disappointing performance in Australia.