F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Japanese Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, October 9, 2011

What a fantastic Japanese Grand Prix!

After consecutive podium finishes without a win, Jenson Button finally stood on top of the podium today!

This was a bit of surprise to the bookmakers as well. Button’s odds to win the race before the race were as far as 4.33. Where as Vettel’s was 1.72.

Button had one of his best victories in dry condition.

Despite losing a position to teammate Lewis Hamilton at the start, he did not let Vettel get away. Button overtook Hamilton on the track Vettel in the second pit stop, and did not slow down until he crossed the finish line.

Sebastian Vettel became the 2011 Formula One World Champion in Suzuka today.

This perhaps is the most dominant championship season by one driver since 2004, when Michael Schumacher won majority of the races with Ferrari.

On a track where Red Bull had won with ease in the previous two years, it was strange to see McLaren coming out on top.

It seems Red Bull has lost the advantage on the tracks where they exceled in the previous two years, but have improved on the tracks where they struggled.

This is evident from Belgium Grand Prix to Japanese Grand Prix this year.

Red Bull struggled on the tracks such as Spa in Belgium Grand Prix and Monza in Italy Grand prix in the past two years. But Vettel has had dominant results on the two tracks this year.

Vettel won the previous two Japanese Grand Prixs without much challenges from Ferrari and McLaren, but he was not able to keep up with Button’s pace today.

Brazil is another place where Red Bull has dominated in the past two years, and the race track has similar features of high speed corners just like Suzuka. Jenson Button will probably get another chance at winning at the season’s finale!

The next race is Korean Grand Prix. Last year the race was affected by heavy rain and Red Bull had double DNFs.

The battle for constructor’s championship is not yet over, and the second place for driver’s title is close.

Let’s enjoy the rest of the championship before the four months long winter break arrives.

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Japanese Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, October 8, 2011

2011 must be Sebastian Vettel’s luckiest year.

He has got the fastest car in Formula One with a not so fast teammate. He gets pole positions and race victories one after another.

And even on the days when his pole position chance looks vulnerable, the biggest threat – Lewis Hamilton fails to cross the start-finish line in time, hence he does not set the potential pole position lap time.

As the result Vettel easily takes another pole position and will likely win Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka for the third time in a row.

F1 Betting Strategy

Vettel and Red Bull’s race pace has been much better since Belgium Grand Prix. Hence despite Button’s dominance on the three practice sessions, Vettel should still come out on top in Japanese Grand Prix 2011.

After Vettel’s lucky pole position, his odds to win the race have returned from 1.55 to what it was before the Friday practice sessions – 1.67.

Button is the second favourite, but his odds are as long as 4.33.

Recommended Bet

• Race Winner – Vettel 1.67

Likely Race Strategy

The talks on the pit garages are that there will be possibly four or more pit stops during the race. As the tyres suffer from sever blistering on this track.

This will make the race very interesting from the strategy point of view.

It will be a race on who runs out of the tyres last.

The possible scenario of tyre blistering during the race will give the four cars that chose not to qualify in Q3 some advantage in gaining positions later in the race.

However as all the front runner chose to do two runs in Q3, there should not be too much surprise in the finishing orders.

Weather Forecast

It is going to be a sunny Sunday on the sky of Suzuka. The ambient temperature will still be on top of 23 degrees Celsius.

Japanese Grand Prix Betting Odds

Race Winner

Vettel:               1.67

Button:             4.33

Hamilton:          5.00

Webber:           17.00

Alonzo:            21.00

Massa:             41.00

Rosberg:          301.00

Schumacher:   101.00

Podium Finish

Vettel:               1.17

Button:              1.57

Hamilton:          1.62

Webber:            2.10

Alonzo:             2.37

Massa:              5.50

Schumacher:   15.00

Rosberg:           34.00

Petrov:              67.00

Senna:             101.00

Kobayashi:      101.00

Sutil:                 101.00

Di Resta:           101.00

Points Finish

Rosberg:          1.67

Schumacher:    1.33

Senna:             1.91

Kobayashi:       2.00

Sutil:                 2.10

Alguersuari:     2.20

Buemi:             2.25

Di Resta:          2.37

Perez:              2.63

Petrov:             3.00

Barrichello:      3.75

Maldonado:     3.75

Kovalainen:     34.00

Trulli:               34.00

Glock:              51.00

Ricciardo:       51.00

D’Ambrosio:    51.00

Liuzzi:             51.00

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Japanese Grand Prix 2011

Friday, October 7, 2011

Jenson Button recently signed a new deal with McLaren. He immediately showed why McLaren made a right decision by topping the two Friday practice sessions.

Since the major regulation change in 2009, Vettel and Red Bull have been second to non in Suzuka.

If Button is to be a serious threat to Vettel this weekend, he has to do a good job in qualifying.

The bookmakers have once again shortened Vettel’s odds to win the race. He is now paying 1.57.

The weather is still looking good for the rest of the weekend.

F1 Betting Strategy

Despite Vettel’s crash in FP2, it does not look like a crash like that will damage his chance of winning.

Earlier this season in Turkish Grand Prix, Vettel had an even bigger crash on Friday practice, but he won the race eventually.

Although Vettel’s only managed third in FP2, sometimes the practice results do not truly reflect the race pace.

However the results on FP3 will more likely to reflect the qualifying pace.

Vettel’s odds to win pole position are now at 1.40. It is very short, but Vettel’s qualifying result for this year speaks for the likelihood of the bet paying off.

It is only getting shorter if Vettel manage to once again top FP3, as he has done in most FP3s this season.

Other than Vettel’s race winning bets. Let’s once again keep the eyes on Kobayashi and Alguersuari to finish in top 10. Suzuka should provide more opportunities than Singapore for the two to start from the back of the grid and finish the race in top 10.

Recommended Bets:

• Pole Position – Vettel 1.40
• Race Winner – Vettel 1.57

Speculating Bets:

• Points Finish – Kobayashi 2.25
• Points Finish – Alguersuari 2.10

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast shows sunny days all the way to Sunday. The temperature is on top of 23 degrees Celsius.

Japanese Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:              1.40

Webber:           6.50

Hamilton:         8.50

Alonzo:            13.00

Button:             11.00

Massa:             51.00

Rosberg:          67.00

Schumacher:   101.00

Race Winner

Vettel:               1.57

Button:             6.50

Webber:           7.50

Hamilton:          8.00

Alonzo:             10.00

Massa:             51.00

Rosberg:          101.00

Schumacher:   101.00

Place

Vettel:              1.20

Webber:           1.72

Button:             1.72

Hamilton:         1.80

Alonzo:            2.10

Massa:             8.00

Rosberg:          13.00

Schumacher:   15.00

F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Japanese Grand Prix 2011

Thursday, October 6, 2011

This weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix is held at Suzuka circuit, which is one of the most challenging circuits to the drivers.

Sebastian Vettel has won this race twice in a row. Judging by his recent form, a three-peat does not look like a big ask at all.

There is an interesting fact on Button’s odds for qualifying and the race. The bookmaker has Button the second favourite driver to win the race at this stage, but he is only the fifth favourite to win pole position.

Weather is unlikely going to be a factor this weekend. The forecast shows no threats of rain throughout the weekend.

F1 Betting Strategy

Most teams have had the final updates to their cars in Singapore Grand Prix two weeks ago. And with the championship being almost over, teams are starting to switch the focus to 2012 season. It is unlikely there will be upsetting results to the remaining races.

Vettel should once again claim pole position easily. His odds for pole position are as short as 1.45, and the odds for race win are 1.67.

It would be a good idea to put in some bets for Vettel to win the race before Friday practice sessions, then gradually increase the stakes as the weekend goes along.

The other bet worth keeping an eye on is definitely Alguersuari to finish in points. Although Alguersuari failed to finish in top 10 in Singapore, he had consistent points finish results prior to that. His odds are the usual 2.88.

Recommended Bet:

• Race Winner – Vettel 1.45

Speculating Bet:

• Points Finish – Alguersuari  2.88

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast shows cloudy on Friday, and sunny days on Saturday and Sunday. The ambient temperature will be on top of around 23 degrees Celsius.

Japanese Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:               1.45

Webber:           7.00

Hamilton:          8.00

Alonzo:             10.00

Button:             11.00

Massa:             41.00

Rosberg:          67.00

Schumacher:   101.00

Race Winner

Vettel:               1.67

Button:              6.50

Hamilton:          7.00

Webber:           8.00

Alonzo:             8.00

Massa:             51.00

Rosberg:          101.00

Schumacher:   101.00

Place

Vettel:              1.22

Alonzo:            2.00

Hamilton:         1.80

Button:             1.80

Webber:           1.91

Massa:             7.00

Rosberg:          9.00

Schumacher:   11.00

Tyre and Race Strategy

Pirelli has brought the soft (yellow) and the medium (white) tyres to this race.

It is likely going to be a three stop race, and the most likely strategy on the front runners will be to use the soft tyres in the first three stints, and to minimise the use of the medium tyres during the race.

It is predicted that the soft tyres will be about 1.5 seconds quicker than the medium tyres.

The total time need for a pit stop is about 20.8 seconds. Which is not too long or too short. This gives a bit more possibilities of different strategies during the race.