F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Italian Grand Prix 2011
Monday, September 12, 2011
The 2011 Italian Grand Prix was an epic race for Red Bull Racing. For the past two years their paces had been overwhelmed by the much powerful engine units of opponents and their KERS system on this circuit, but this year they have completely altered the outcome and dominated Monza.
Sebastian Vettel won the Italian Grand Prix in the Red Bull way. In which as oppose to the rivals, the team chose to have the aerodynamic and the gear ratio set up which was thought to be vulnerable on the crucial straight line speed in Monza.
As the result, Vettel won pole position on Saturday, and also won the race on Sunday.
It was predicted the the tyre degradation would not be a major issue during the race, hence the risks on betting in Italian Grand Prix had reduced prior to the race.
There were three bets placed this weekend, and all three paid off:
- Pole Position – Vettel 2.63
- Race Winner – Vettel 2.20
- Points Finish – Alguersuari 2.88
Vettel’s pole position came with a surprise to the world as Red Bull had chosen to sacrifice their qualifying speed for the race, but Vettel still managed to qualify around half a second quicker than Hamilton.
Vettel’s race would have looked much easier than it already did, had Alonzo not made the surprise overtake in lap 1, turn 1.
Alonzo’s sensational start once again brought the spectators to their feet, however Alonzo’s race lead was short lived as he struggled with the speed after the first chicane. Which is a reflection to his car’s set up – a lower down force set up that allows higher top speed, but less traction on slow corner exits.
Alguersuari once again was eliminated in qualifying session 1, but finished the race in top 10. This has happened so many times this season, this betting option has this season turned out to be as good as Vettel’s pole position bets.
Alguersuari started the race from 18th and he already made it to 11th after the first turn chaos. The situation turned more into his way as Webber crashed out.
This race was once again a battle between the different set ups.
Last year Alonzo won the race with the lower down force set up, however this year it turned out to be where he lost the second place to Button.
Last year McLaren split their strategies with Hamilton going for the lower down force set up and Button going for the higher down force set up. McLaren approached this year’s Italian Grand Prix by having a compromised setup that is between the two extremities of Ferrari’s lower down force and Red Bull’s higher down force set up.
The three drivers that finished on the podium reflected the results of three different approaches to the race setups.
Italian Grand Prix marks the final Formula One Grand Prix in Europe this season. The remaining grand Prix will be held mostly in Asia and one in Brazil of South America.
Although Vettel will wrap up the championship as soon as two weeks time in Singapore, there are still some exciting races ahead. Including the night race of Singapore, a challenging track of Suzuka in Japan, and the glamorous Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Italian Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Sebastian Vettel once again found that extra half a second on the most crucial part of qualifying, and claimed his 10th pole position in 13 races this season so far.
After betting on Vettel to win pole position at the odds of 2.63. The betting market is now favouring Vettel to win the race at the odds of 2.20.
However there is a bit more uncertainties during the race as the front runners have different race set ups, with Vettel and Alonzo being on the two extreme ends. They will make the differences in race strategies.
Likely Race Strategy
Vettel has got the higher down force set up, Alonzo on the other hand has the low down force set up, and the McLaren duo of Hamilton and Button’s set up are somewhere between Vettel and and Alonzo’s.
Vettel’s set up is more tyre friendly, it allows less slides in corners, and better corner exit speed. However the disadvantage is on the straight line speed.
Alonzo’s set up gives him advantage on the straight line speed, but the cars will be sliding around in corners, which increases tyre degradation.
There is already an example of the difference between high down force and low down force set up in last year’s Italian Grand Prix.
Last year Button had the higher down force set up with the F-duct, whereas Alonzo had the low down force set up.
Alonzo had the advantage on the straight line, but still spent most of his race trailing Button. This was because Button always had the better corner exit speed, so he was able to pull away in the beginning of the straight, and by the time both reaches the end of the straights, Button was too far ahead for Alonzo to out brake him. Alonzo who had the much faster car was only able to overtake Button after Button made the pit stop.
In order for Vettel’s strategy to work today, he must pull away into distance in the first three laps before the DRS are activated. He should be reasonable save from being overtaken as long as he stays over a seconds ahead of Hamilton or Button in the DRS detection zone.
Furthermore, Vettel has to make his tyres last longer than the McLarens. Which is a reasonable ask as long as he stays in the lead and in clear air. After all the slip stream effect is quite high in Monza.
F1 Betting Strategy
Looking at what happened on this race last year, it looks like Vettel should be able to win the Italian Grand Prix today as long as he does not lose the lead into turn 1 and retain reasonable speed throughout the whole race.
Friday practice sessions have shown Red Bulls are consistent in both compounds of tyres, therefore Vettel has a good chance to hold off the McLaren attack even till the latter end of the race.
Vettel to win the race at the odds of 2.20 looks like a good investment.
Alguesuari once again failed to make it to qualifying session 2. He has started from 18th and ended the race in top 10 many times this season. Investing on him to finish in points looks like a good idea.
Recommended Bets
- Race Winner – Vettel 2.20
- Points Finish – Alguersuari 2.88
Weather Forecast
The weather is once again sunny with the ambient air temperature reaching 28 degrees celsius. The weather should not play a part in the outcome of the grand prix today.
Italian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.20
Hamilton: 3.50
Webber: 13.00
Alonzo: 6.50
Button: 6.50
Massa: 41.00
Rosberg: 81.00
Schumacher: 101.00
Petrov: 101.00
Place
Vettel: 1.25
Alonzo: 1.83
Hamilton: 1.40
Button: 1.83
Webber: 2.63
Massa: 6.50
Rosberg: 12.00
Petrov: 34.00
Schumacher: 13.00
Points Finish
Rosberg: 1.33
Schumacher: 1.36
Petrov: 1.57
Sutil: 1.91
Senna: 2.00
Di Resta: 2.00
Kobayashi: 2.37
Buemi: 2.88
Alguersuari: 2.88
Perez: 2.88
Barrichello: 3.75
Maldonado: 4.00
Trulli: 26.00
Kovalainen: 26.00
Glock: 41.00
Ricciardo: 41.00
D’Ambrosio: 41.00
Liuzzi: 41.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Italian Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Before the Friday practice sessions, Vettel was the bookmakers’ favourite to win the Italian Grand Prix, and followed by Hamilton, Alonzo and Webber, who were the equal second favourites to win the race.
However after Hamilton topped Friday’s Free Practice 1, the bookmakers have changed their mind.
Hamilton and Vettel are now equal favourite to win the race at the odds of 3.25, Alonzo’s odds have gone from 3.25 to 5.00.
Friday’s practice results have shown Red Bull is quick on the medium tyres, there is only 0.8 seconds differences in fastest lap times between the two tyre compounds. Where as the difference for Hamilton’s times were 1.2 seconds.
Things are not going too well on Alonzo’s end. As he only managed 7th in Free Practice 1 and 5th in Free Practice 2, has openly admitted Ferrari has some work to do.
F1 Betting Strategy
It is a high reward investment on Vettel to win the pole position.
The bookmakers rate Vettel and Hamilton both having equal chances of snatching pole position at Italian Grand Prix. However Red Bull is still the quicker car in qualifying sessions, as Vettel still qualified almost half a second quicker than Hamilton in Belgium Grand Prix two weeks ago.
There should be some good betting options again on the drivers who miss out on qualifying session three. As they save an extra set of tyres to use in the race, hence more options to strategies.
Red Bull’s pole position streak is once again being seriously challenged. Hence the odds of 2.63 for Vettel to win pole position, as opposed to sub 2.00 for most of the times this season.
Nevertheless Vettel took pole position and the race win in another high speed track as recent as Belgium Grand Prix. Which is a clear evidence of Vettel being a potential race winner in this year’s Italian Grand Prix, as oppose to last year’s disappointing result of non podium finish.
Having strategies of fewer stops and longer stints has paid off with good results in the recent years of Italian Grand Prix.
Last year Vettel started the race sixth and finished fourth by making his only and mandatory tyre change pit stop in the second last lap. He overtook teammate Webber who started the race ahead of him.
In 2009 Barrichello won the race with Brawn GP from fifth by doing an one stop strategy.
The long pit lane and low tyre degradation rate is the reason fewer pit stops could be the better strategy during the race.
Recommended Bet:
- Pole Position – Vettel 2.63
Weather Forecast
The most updated weather forecast shows it will be sunny on both Saturday and Sunday. The ambient weather temperature will be on top of 29 degrees Celsius.
Italian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 2.63
Hamilton: 3.25
Webber: 6.00
Alonzo: 7.00
Button: 11.00
Massa: 26.00
Rosberg: 41.00
Schumacher: 51.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 3.25
Hamilton: 3.25
Alonzo: 5.00
Button: 6.50
Webber: 8.00
Massa: 26.00
Rosberg: 34.00
Schumacher: 51.00
Petrov:
Place
Vettel: 1.45
Hamilton: 1.45
Alonzo: 1.57
Webber: 2.20
Button: 2.00
Massa: 7.00
Rosberg: 8.50
Schumacher: 11.00
Petrov: 67.00
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F1 Pre-Weekend Betting Analysis – Italian Grand Prix 2011
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Monza is one of the few classic tracks on the Formula One Championship calendar. The track layout looks simple, but the physical challenges for the drivers to go around this track is far from easy.
Alonzo led Ferrari to their home ground victory here last year, he still has a very good chance to repeat the victory this year.
There seems to be some good betting opportunities this weekend. There are less variable factors to the race results.
The forecast is showing some great weather ahead, the long pit lanes encourages minimum pit stops during the race, the low down force set up means the DRS will be less effective during the race, hence less likelihood of overtaking, and most importantly it is unlikely there will be much lap time differences between the two compounds of tyres. This reduces the chance of on track overtaking actions.
The betting market is quite even on the front runners. The bookmakers have put Alonzo and Hamilton side by side on both pole position and race winner odds. Although Vettel is still the favourite for both betting categories.
F1 Betting Strategy
In last year’s Italian Grand Prix, Red Bull’s underpowered Renault engine was unable to provide them competitive pace.
However having seen Red Bull topping the speed trap in another high speed track of Spa two weeks ago, it looks like they can be just as competitive as Ferrari and McLaren this time around.
The bookmakers are still favouring Vettel to win pole position and the race, but they cannot tell at this stage whether McLaren or Ferrari would be the second fastest car this weekend.
As last year’s Italian Grand Prix was a great battle between the drivers from these two teams. Which had much more advantage on straight line speed due to the more powerful engine units.
Looking at the overall odds for race winner, Hamilton, Alonzo and Button look like better investment options for race winner than Vettel at this stage.
Let’s look at the results on Friday practice sessions and decide who is hot and who is not!
Italian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 2.20
Hamilton: 5.50
Webber: 5.50
Alonzo: 5.50
Button: 11.00
Massa: 26.00
Rosberg: 41.00
Schumacher: 67.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.88
Alonzo: 4.00
Hamilton: 4.00
Webber: 7.50
Button: 7.50
Massa: 34.00
Rosberg: 34.00
Schumacher: 67.00
Place
Vettel: 1.36
Alonzo: 1.50
Hamilton: 1.57
Webber: 2.10
Button: 2.10
Massa: 7.00
Rosberg: 10.00
Schumacher: 15.00
Petrov: 67.00
Tyre and Race Strategy
Pirelli has brought the same tyres that they brought to Belgium Grand Prix two weeks ago – the soft and the medium compounds.
Due to the characteristics of this track, which is dominated by straight lines, it is predicted that there will not be much differences between the lap times of the two compounds of tyres.
After the camber saga two weeks ago in Belgium Grand Prix, Pirelli have reduced the camber recommendation from 4 degrees to 3.75 degrees this weekend. Hence there will be less severe tyre degradations during the race.
The time it takes to make a pit stop is around 22 seconds, which is rather high compare to most tracks on the championship. Hence making an extra pit stop during the race will be a disadvantage unless significant amount of lap times can be gained on the fresh set of tyres.
75% of the race lap is spent on full throttle, hence this is a high fuel consumption track, 2.8kg of fuel is used on each lap.
in order to take advantage of the straight line speed, minimum down force set up is usually preferred here in Monza.
Button had a great race here last year, he took a different approach to the race set ups and he finished the race second. He overtook Alonzo into turn one, who started the race from pole position, and spent most of the race in the lead before being overtaken back by Alonzo in the pit stops.
Button’s approach to this year’s Italian Grand Prix will surely be another interesting one!
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