Post Race Betting Analysis – Hungarian Grand Prix 2011

Monday, August 1, 2011

Whenever there is a wet track drying up, you have to seriously consider putting money on Jenson Button.

The odds for Jenson Button to win Hungarian Grand Prix prior to the race began were $8.50!

Button once again rose to the top in this condition, although the victory had to do with his teammate Hamilton’s mistakes, it was still another great drive by Button.

Lewis Hamilton made two mistakes during the race – a driver error spin off and a judgment error on switching to the wrong tyres. The spin off got him a drive through penalty as he tried to rejoin into the traffic. And the switch to intermediate tyres proved to be premature. Hamilton finished the race fourth.

Betting on Hamilton to win prior to the race began was a good move, but that was because the weather forecast only suggested morning showers, which would turn the track green and give a bit more advantage to Hamilton who started from the second place.

However as it turned out it was still raining when the race began and everyone started in intermediate tyres.

Whenever there is a wet track, stay out of betting!

The variables during the race such as tyre choices and the likelihood of driver error increase massively in wet conditions. The risks on the bets usually outweigh the odds offered by the bookmakers. Although it is rather exciting to see the cars drifting around the corners and fishtail as the drivers put the throttle down.

Vettel made a few mistakes during the race as well. Running off the track cost him the lead in the beginning of the race. Nevertheless he finished second, and stretched the championship lead even further, as the two McLaren drivers took each other’s points out.

If there is no one other than Vettel to win races consistently from now on, Vettel will wrap up the championship in as soon as Singapore Grand Prix. Which is only three races away!

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Hungarian Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Sebastian Vettel once again rose to the top. No one has had an answer for Red Bull in 2011 qualifying sessions yet.

Both McLaren drivers looked very strong during qualifying, which is a sign that they have a fast car this weekend, but they were just a bit too short for Vettel.

Vettel has a very high pole position to race win conversion rate, however this track has not been pole position friendly in the recent years.

Vettel would have won last year had he not receive the drive through penalty.

In 2009, Hamilton used the advantage of KERS at the start of the race and took the race lead into turn 1, after starting from fourth.

In 2008, Massa started the race third, but over took the two McLarens in front of him into turn 1. Massa led for most of the race and retired from the lead with three laps to go.

F1 Betting Strategy

It is still unclear on who will be the fastest driver during the race.

Vettel may have got the pole, but Red Bull’s race pace has not been as good as Ferrari and McLaren lately.

Hamilton looked fast in both Friday and Saturday. Although he is starting from the dirty side of the track, the predicted morning shower in the area might reduce his disadvantage at the start. He saved a set of supersoft tyres from Q2. Which can make really make a difference to his rivals during the race.

Alonzo may have had a poor qualifying session, in which he was out-qualified by Massa, but in the recent years, the race winners have come from non-front row qualifiers in Hungarian Grand Prix.

Recommended Bets

• Race Winner – Hamilton 2.60

This is a tough call and a risky bet, but judging from the fact that he has extra set of fresh tyres, he will likely to have better pace during the race than Vettel. Despite the likelihood losing positions into turn 1.

Weather Forecast

There is 30% chance of morning shower, the air temperature will be on top of 20 degrees.

Hungarian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Race Winner

Vettel:               2.30

Hamilton:        2.60

Alonzo:             6.50

Button:             8.50

Webber:           21.00

Massa:             34.00

Rosberg:          151.00

Schumacher:  201.00

Heidfeld:         251.00

Petrov:             301.00

Place

Vettel:                1.25

Alonzo:             1.83

Hamilton:        1.30

Button:             2.10

Webber:            3.10

Massa:              4.00

Rosberg:          17.00

Schumacher:  26.00

Petrov:             67.00

Heidfeld:        81.00

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Hungarian Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Lewis Hamilton carried on the momentum from the German Grand Prix. He dominated both Friday’s practice sessions. However it is only practice, the lap times do not speak much for themselves.

Hungarian Grand Prix has had many surprising results in the past. Alonzo and Button both won their first races here. Hamilton had a surprising win in 2009 when the championship looked like it was a battle between Brawn GP and Red Bull Racing.

F1 Betting Strategy

Judging from the closeness of Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari at the moment, it would be a good idea hold onto the bets at this stage, but looking at the odds for pole position, there is a chance to profit from Vettel not winning the pole by betting equally on Webber, Alonzo and Hamilton.

Many things can still happen in qualifying, including how well the tyres can cope with the high track temperature this weekend.

Mclaren had issues with over heating the tyres last time the track was this hot, let’s see if they have solved the problems.

After the race win last weekend in Nurburgring, Hamilton’s odds to win pole position has dropped massively. It was 17.20 after the Friday practice sessions in Nurburgring, and it is now 4.50.

Weather Forecast

The most updated weather forcecast shows a cloudy Saturday and a chance of morning shower on Sunday. The ambient air temperature will be 24 degrees on Saturday and 21 degrees on Sunday.

German Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:                  1.95

Hamilton:          4.50

Webber:              5.00

Alonzo:               5.50

Button:                26.00

Massa:               34.00

Rosberg:             101.00

Schumacher:    201.00

Heidfeld:            251.00

Petrov:                251.00

Race Winner

Vettel:                  2.75

Alonzo:               3.50

Hamilton:          4.25

Webber:              6.50

Button:                15.00

Massa:                34.00

Rosberg:             101.00

Schumacher:    126.00

Heidfeld:           151.00

Petrov:               151.00

Podium Finish

Vettel:                1.30

Alonzo:              1.45

Hamilton:         1.53

Webber:            1.65

Button:               3.50

Massa:               5.50

Rosberg:            15.00

Schumacher:    23.00

Heidfeld:          41.00

Petrov:              51.00

F1 Pre-Weekend Betting Analysis – Hungarian Grand Prix

Friday, July 29, 2011

Hungarian Grand Prix is the final race on the 2011 F1 championship calendar before the three weeks winter break.

Whatever issue happens this weekend will be left unanswered for three weeks.

Last year this race finished with the controversies on  Vettel’s silly mistake behind safety car that cost him the chance to fight for victory, and the argument between Schumacher and Barrichello on the dangerous maneuver.

This year it looks like Red Bull will not get away too easy. As both Ferrari and McLaren have been on brilliant forms.

F1 Betting Strategy

Due to the closeness of the podium finishers at the German Grand Prix, extra caution is required in place bets at Hungarian Grand Prix.

Vettel’s pole position bet has the odds as long as 1.83, which is quite long compare to his odds this year. This is because he failed to qualify on pole in the previous two races.

Webber has qualified on pole two races in a row, but his odds is still as long as 4.50.

Alonzo and Hamilton have both come close to stealing pole positions off Red Bull this year.

It seems there is an opportunity to bet on Vettel not to qualify on pole position, ie. Betting on Webber, Alonzo and Hamilton to win pole position. However it is recommended that no bet on pole position to be placed before the Friday practice sessions.

Hungarian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:              1.83

Webber:           4.50

Alonzo:             5.00

Hamilton:          8.00

Button:             26.00

Massa:             26.00

Rosberg:          81.00

Schumacher:  151.00

Heidfeld:         251.00

Petrov:            251.00

Race Winner

Vettel:               2.40

Alonzo:            3.50

Hamilton:          5.00

Webber:           6.00

Button:             17.00

Massa:             34.00

Rosberg:          81.00

Schumacher:  101.00

Heidfeld:         151.00

Petrov:             151.00

Place

Vettel:              1.36

Alonzo:            1.50

Webber:           1.62

Hamilton:         1.57

Button:             3.00

Massa:             5.50

Rosberg:         15.00

Schumacher:   26.00

Heidfeld:          41.00

Petrov:             41.00

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast shows 30% chance of rain on Friday, and partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday. The air temperature will be around 23 degrees Celsius.

Tyre and Race Strategy

This week Pirelli has brought the super soft and the soft compound to the race.

The last time the two combinations were used was back in Monaco, where both tyres were found to be quite durable.

However it is a different place and different track now. This track has slippery surface, and the track temperature is predicted to be high during the race.

This track has a short pit stop. A pit stop would take about 18 seconds. This allows more race strategy options for the teams.

It will be a two stops or three stops race. So keep an eye on Jenson Button, who is often adventurous on strategies!