F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – German Grand Prix 2011

Monday, July 25, 2011

The 2011 F1 German Grand Prix had the closest battle between the first three race leaders in years.

Hamilton, Alonzo and Webber all took turn in leading the race, and in the end it was strategy and aggressiveness in driving that got Hamilton the race victory.

McLaren’s pace was a concern coming into the German Grand Prix weekend. Hamilton’s odds to win the race before Friday practice sessions were 7.00, and even after qualifying second on the grid, it was still as high as 3.50.

Looking at McLaren’s form prior to qualifying, it was difficult to see how Hamilton would win the race. It looked like he would be the one that would ruin the race for Vettel and Alonzo who started the race behind him.

Webber once again qualified on pole position, but failed to convert into race victory. He has finished third for the fourth time in a row.

Alonzo had a chance to win the race when he got the better of Hamilton in the second pit stop, but allowing Hamilton to overtake him on the outside of turn two cost him the race victory.

There were not as many overtaking moves during the race, but at least the race victory was determined by an overtaking move on track rather than in pit stops.

Despite Vettel’s dominance in the first half of the season, only half of the times this season the race winners have come from pole sitters.

This year’s championship is certainly more exciting than the previous years.

This further shows race strategies have now overtaken as the key element to race victories.

Race Strategy Debrief

Pirelli’s pit stop prediction once again came one too short. The front runners all used three stop strategy.

On Sunday’s German Grand Prix, there were some key turning points during the race that could alter the race result.

One of the most important contributor to the race result was the track temperature. The track temperature remained low throughout the weekend, and there was not much improvement during the race.

This meant the track’s grip level did not improve and this perhaps was the contribution to Webber’s lack of pace in the second half of the race.

Interestingly the last time the grip level on the track failed to improve as the race went on was Chinese Grand Prix.

It was where Hamilton won his previous race.

By contrast, European Grand Prix in Valencia had one of the highest track temperatures. That was when McLaren struggled with their pace during the race.

The same compounds of Pirelli tyres were used in both European Grand Prix and German Grand Prix. This is something worth considering in analysing future races.

The track temperature was a constant factor during the race. There were a few variable factors that contributed to the race result.

The first was obviously Mark Webber’s another poor start. He was by the tail of Hamilton the entire first stint. Which clearly showed he was held up. Had he still withheld race lead in the first stint, he would have pulled out enough gap to cover for the time loss on the out lap of the second pit stop.

The second turning point of the race was the first pit stop, where Webber undercut Hamilton. Unfortunately Webber wasn’t able to pull away as the grip level on the track did not improve, and Hamilton’s McLaren certainly was better in that condition.

The next turning point was the second pit stop. This was where Hamilton sealed the deal. Firstly he came out of the pit lane just in front of Webber, he then forced Webber to the outside of the turn 2 exit, denying Webber’s opportunity to overtake.

The next lap came around, Alonzo failed to use the same maneuver Hamilton did in the previous lap. This left Hamilton an opportunity to overtake him and slowly pulled out the gap.

The aggressive driving style of Hamilton that got him heavy criticism in Canada and Monaco was what got him the race victory in Germany.

As the cars burnt fuel and got lighter, the third stints on the soft tyres were able to be stretched longer.

In order to minimise the opportunity of being expose to vulnerable pace on the medium tyres, McLaren kept Hamilton out on the soft tyres for as long as possible.

Being way ahead of fourth placed Massa, Webber was able to take the gamble of staying out on the soft tyres for longer than Hamilton and Alonzo.

After all if Webber had pitted the same lap as Alonzo for the medium tyres, there was no way he could have overtaken Alonzo.

Webber was still setting fastest sector times in the soft tyres with around ten laps to go. By keeping him out longer and hoping he will continue to set faster lap times on the soft tyres than Hamilton and Alonzo was the one last shot he had at race victory.

It was the right call by the Red Bull strategists, as Webber would have finished third anyway.

F1 Race Betting Analysis – German Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, July 24, 2011

It was expected that qualifying would be a battle between Red Bull and Ferrari only, but it turned out Lewis Hamilton almost stole the show.

Webber had an upset to qualify on pole position once again, the odds for him to be on pole position was 4.00 before practice session three!

Would it be a good idea to still invest on him to win the race?

Weather will be a concern for all drivers and engineers. There is 70% chance of rain. However this track can dry up very quickly, so we will see some interesting race strategies if the race starts with a wet track.

F1 Betting Strategy

The race winner of 2011 German Grand Prix is difficult to predict, but on the other side the odds are long for the potential race winners.

Mark Webber qualified on pole position, and has won this race before, but he has failed to convert two pole positions to race wins this season.

McLaren have struggled with their pace prior to qualifying, but only missed out pole position by five hundredths of a second.

Vettel once again topped practice session three on Saturday morning. He is as dominant on practice session threes as he is on pole position this season. But for the first time this season he will not be starting from the front row.

Alonzo looked strong prior to qualifying, but he only managed to qualify fourth. He might have better pace during the race, but race victory seems distant when you start from fourth.

On top of all these, there is wet weather forecast. Therefore race betting for this weekend will once again be a last minute call.

Anything will be possible when there is a wet track!

Judging from the performance of each driver so far this weekend, Red Bull drivers seems to be more consistent overall.

Ferrari looked strong on Friday, but not so on Saturday. And McLaren is the opposite.

And looking at the result of qualifying, Red Bull once again is more consistent.

Webber qualified on pole and Vettel third.

Hamilton might have just lost out on pole position, but his teammate Button only managed seventh. Which more or less showed Hamilton out-drove the potential of the car.

Both Ferrari drivers qualified consistently on fourth and fifth. Which showed that was as fast as the Red cars could go.

Hence overall Red Bull has the advantage of having fast cars as well as track positions coming into Sunday’s race.

The decision is now which Red Bull driver will win the race in dry condition?

On the record this season, Webber is not a good choice. But if consistency is the key to making profit long term in gambling, the money has to be placed in Webber as he will be starting on pole position on a track that has not previously been overtaking friendly.

On the other betting tips, Kobayashi and Alguersuari’s odds to finish in top ten seem to have good reward for investment.

It was a shock to see Kobayashi being eliminated in qualifying session one, but he will have more set of fresh tyres during the race to use. As we have seen in the case of Alguersuari in the last three races.

Alguersuari finally made it through qualifying session one, perhaps it was due to the misfortune of Kobayashi.

He will be starting closer to the tenth position this time. On top of that, Buemi who qualified just one spot in front of Alguersuari was penalised for irregularities in fuel.

Buemi’s qualifying time was excluded. He will be starting either from the back of the grid or from the pit lane.

Recommended Bets

• Race Winner – Mark Webber 3.25

Speculating Bets

• Points Finish – Kamui Kobayashi 2.50
• Points Finish – Jaime Alguersuari 3.50

German Grand Prix Betting Odds

Race Winner

Webber:           3.25

Vettel:                3.25

Hamilton:        3.50

Alonzo:             6.00

Button:             19.00

Massa:             34.00

Rosberg:          67.00

Schumacher: 151.00

Heidfeld:         251.00

Petrov:             251.00

Place

Vettel:                1.40

Webber:            1.40

Alonzo:             1.57

Hamilton:        1.57

Button:              3.75

Massa:              6.00

Rosberg:          11.00

Schumacher: 17.00

Petrov:             41.00

Heidfeld:        51.00

Weather Forecast

There is overcast with 70% chance of rain on Sunday. The ambient air temperature will be about 11 degrees Celsius. Which is quite low.

Tyre and Race Strategy

All the front runners once again chose to do two runs in qualifying session three.

This shows starting position is still important to the teams than the tyre grips.

The air temperature will be about 11 degrees Celsius, this means the track temperature will be around 20 degrees Celsius.

This is rather low, therefore tyre temperature will be an issue during the race.

Especially in the final stint when everyone put on the medium compound of Pirelli tyres. Which is harder to warm up, this will bring some variable factors to the race result.

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – German Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Friday’s practice sessions some what shows Ferrari’s pace is the real deal. As McLaren continues to struggle, it looks like the second half of the 2011 F1 Championship will be a battle between Red Bull and Ferrari.

Alonzo topped session one and Webber topped session two. Although Friday’s times do not mean much, Ferrari’s recent form of qualifying pace in Valencia and race pace in Silverstone is something Red Bull need to worry about.

F1 Betting Strategy

It is about time to seriously consider betting on Alonzo to win pole positions from now on.

There is enough evidence to show Ferrari is catching up with Red Bull’s pace, both during qualifying and the race. There is a fair chance Alonzo will be the first non-Red Bull driver to be on pole position this weekend.

It is a great idea to place a little amount of money on Alonzo to win pole position. As the reward for winning the bet (5.00) is way higher than the probability the actual result.

Pole position will be more crucial in this race than Silverstone two weeks ago. Therefore placing the race winner bet after qualifying will increase the probability of making money.

Alguersuari has qualified outside top 16 and finished within top 10 three races in a row. It seems Toro Roso has the strategy figured out when starting from far back.

The odds for him to finish in top 10 have dropped from 4.80 in the previous weeks to 3.00 now.

Recommended Bet

• Pole Position – Fernando Alonzo 5.00

Speculating Bet

• Points Finish – Jaime Alguersuari 3.00

German Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:                  1.62

Webber:              4.00

Alonzo:               5.00

Hamilton:          17.20

Button:                34.00

Massa:               26.00

Rosberg:             67.00

Schumacher:    101.00

Heidfeld:            201.00

Petrov:                201.00

Race Winner

Vettel:                  2.25

Webber:              6.00

Hamilton:          7.50

Alonzo:               3.50

Button:                15.00

Massa:                21.00

Rosberg:             67.00

Schumacher:    101.00

Heidfeld:           151.00

Petrov:               151.00

Podium Finish

Vettel:                1.25

Webber:            1.53

Hamilton:         2.25

Alonzo:              1.40

Button:               3.50

Massa:               5.00

Rosberg:            10.00

Schumacher:   15.00

Heidfeld:          41.00

Petrov:              41.00

Weather Forecast

The weather will be cloudy for the rest of the weekend, with a chance of light shower on Sunday.

Weather can change rapidly in this track, the track can also dry out quickly. 2007 German Grand Prix is a perfect example of it.

Despite the forecast, do not rule out the chance of heavier rain.

Tyre and Race Strategy

Pirelli’s medium compound is the least favourite tyre compound by all teams. Therefore its usage will be at the bare minimum this weekend.

The strategy for front runners should be as usual – qualifying on soft tyres and only use the medium tyres in the final stint.

In Silverstone Red Bull and Ferrari actually went out for two runs in Q3, which was a bit unusual after Lewis Hamilton’s Chinese Grand Prix race victory early this season.

Hamilton won the race by having only one run in Q3 in order to save a set of fresh tyres for the race. He was able to overtake Vettel for the lead in the final laps as Vettel’s tyres were falling off the cliff. Perhaps the teams had more confidence in the prime tyres two weeks ago, which was the hard compound.

We will see what the strategies in qualifying are like, then decide where to place the money for the race.

F1 Pre-Weekend Betting Analysis – German Grand Prix 2011

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

This year’s German Grand Prix is held at Nurburgring, as opposed to Hockenheim last year. Any statistics from last year’s race will be irrelevant to this year.

The most recent race winner on this track is Mark Webber in 2009. This is where he had his maiden victory, but this time around it looks like a repeat of victory for him on Vettel’s backyard is a big ask and a half.

Ferrari has stepped their game up in the recent two races. Alonzo has now become the second favourite driver by the bookmakers to win the race. It had usually been Hamilton in the first half of the season.

We will see whether Ferrari’s victory in British Grand Prix was due to the odd occasion of off throttle diffuser ban, in which it has been lifted for the remaining of the season. Or was their pace the real deal?

F1 Betting Strategy

Vettel’s pole position bet is no longer as safe as it had been prior to the British Grand Prix.

Webber qualified on pole in Nurburgring two years ago, but it was due to Vettel’s mistake which left him more or less unchallenged in his qualifying run.

Ferrari is slowly catching up to the pace of Red Bull as the season moves towards the second half. Although Red Bull qualified one-two on the most recent British Grand Prix, it is only a matter of time before Red Bull’s dominance on qualifying comes to an end.

Alonzo was close to out-qualify Vettel two races ago at the European Grand Prix, at this stage he is the most likely to be the first non-Red Bull driver to qualify on pole position this year.

Therefore it is better to stay off pole position bet at this stage, despite the factors such as rule change and track characteristics are still on Vettel and Red Bull’s side.

Ferrari has overtaken McLaren in development. Interestingly Ferrari started to turn their season around this time last year, and McLaren did not win any race in the second half of the season.

The rules on the off throttle blowing diffuser has changed to what it was prior to the British Grand Prix – no changes in engine mapping is allowed between qualifying and race.

Race winner will again likely to be the driver who qualifies on pole position.

This track is narrow and has high speed corners. Hence overtaking opportunities will be limited at the front end of the field.

Speculating Bet

• Pole Position – Fernando Alonzo 6.00

Red Bull will not clean sweep pole positions this year. As Ferrari’s pace is getting closer and closer to Red Bull, it is about time to see someone else starting the race from pole position.

British Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:         1.66

Webber:      5.50

Alonzo:       6.00

Hamilton:  11.00

Button:        21.00

Rosberg:     70.00

Massa:        34.00

Schumacher: 106.00

Heidfeld:     211.00

Petrov:          211.00

Race Winner

Vettel:               2.10

Alonzo:            3.80

Webber:           6.80

Hamilton:       7.00

Button:             13.75

Massa:             30.00

Rosberg:          52.00

Schumacher: 116.00

Heidfeld:        151.00

Petrov:             151.00

Place

Vettel:               1.26

Alonzo:            1.46

Webber:           1.62

Hamilton:       2.27

Button:             3.26

Massa:             5.50

Rosberg:         9.00

Schumacher: 15.00

Heidfeld:         34.00

Petrov:             34.00

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast on the weekend shows it will be cloudy with air temperature around 18 degrees. There is chance of shower on Friday, and this might interrupt teams’ tyre evaluation programs.

Tyre and Race Strategy

Pirelli has brought the soft and medium compounds to the German Grand Prix.

Where the harder tyre compound is the prime tyre and the softer being the option tyre, the option tyre is usually the one that team prefers.

The Pirelli soft compound is the most frequently used compound on this year’s championship, the medium compound only had its debut as recent as European Grand Prix in Valencia.

The medium compound received some criticism from the drivers and engineers in Valencia, let’s see if they will have better knowledge on the tyres this time.

Pirelli predicts it will be a two stops strategy race. Which is rather few compare to the races this year.

The approximate time loss in pit stop is 17 seconds.

The fuel consumption on this track is high, 64% of the lap is on full throttle.

Traditionally this is not an overtaking track, but with the aid of DRS there will certainly be many more overtaking moves this year. Just like other non-overtaking tracks such as Turkey and Spain. Where the number of overtaking during the race has increased significantly this year.