F1 Post Race Betting Analysis – Chinese Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Chinese Grand Prix 2011 has got to be one of the most amazing races in the recent years. The strategies and the overtaking during the race made every single lap of the race worthwhile watching.

For years Formula One has tried to improve the overtaking during the race, after applying variety of methods such as change in aerodynamic structure of the cars, reducing rear wing down force, switching from grooved tyres to slick tyres, and introducing KERS and DRS. Today they have finally found their answer. The answer lies within the tyres. The shorter life span of the tyres enabled teams to try different strategies, and with the pros and cons of each strategy, the race resulted in the way it did today at Chinese Grand Prix.

Lewis Hamilton had a dramatic race day in Shanghai today. With the fuel leak problem, he only just made it onto the grid before the pit lane was closed. The wrong tyre strategy in 2007 cost him the race win, but he made the right choice in tyre strategies and that won the race for him.

At the end of his first pit stop, he lost a place to Felipe Massa and race victory seemed slipping away at that point. However with the use of strategies he was able to came up strong on the final stint of the race and overtake the other two World Champions in Jenson Button and Sebastian Vettel to win the race.

Although the results in Formula One betting wasn’t good, many lessons were learnt today and certainly from now on there is going to be a different approach to placing bets.

Today we saw the race outcome was no longer determined in the first corner. It was determined by strategies. The bets were placed on Vettel to win the race and both McLarens to finish on podium. On any other race before this season, nine out of ten results would have ended that way. However it wasn’t meant to be today. The tyre strategies had got the best out of Vettel and those drivers who were losing places towards the end of the race.

Looking back to the race, there were two turning points for Vettel and his third race victory of the season. Firstly it was the start. He had the poorest start since Hockenheim last year. Losing places to the slower McLaren cars disallowed him to pull out from the field and dictate the race. Nico Rosberg got the best out of the front runners after the first pit stop. As both Vettel and Button came out behind a slower Renault.

The second turning point was Vettel’s second pit stop. Which came in lap 31, earlier than expected. He was losing time to the two stoppers who were slowly gaining time on him. The consequences came at the end of the race when his tyre performance “fell of the cliff”. Therefore a difficult lesson learnt here – never stretch the life span of these Pirelli tyres.

Certainly from now on, teams will be working on how to conserve the tyres on Saturday in order to save for a fresh set of tyres for late race overtaking. Furthermore the final stint of the race is no longer the least important phase, it will be the second most important phase of the race, after the first turn from now on! This season will not just be drivers’ championship, it will now be strategists’ championship too!

Nevertheless this circuit in Shanghai is an overtaking track where there are many straights. We will see what happens when we reach non-overtaking tracks such as Barcelona and Monaco.

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Chinese Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, April 16, 2011

With teammate Mark Webber eliminated in Q1, Sebastian Vettel cruised to pole position without any challenge. Vettel was about 7/10 second quicker than Jenson Button in qualifying. Such a large margin in qualifying lap time reminded us of what happened in Melbourne. Vettel drove off to win the race easily. We will likely to see the encore in Shanghai – if his Red Bull doesn’t fail on him.

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast is good, partly cloudy and unlikely to rain. Which is great news for punters and the local fans, but not so much for Bernie Ecclestone and TV viewers.

This time last year there were already three wet races (including Chinese GP itself), but we have yet to see one yet this year. And with Red Bull dominating the field, the championship is going to get more and more boring for the fans who want to see crashes.

Tyres

We learnt a new fact on tyre performance with respect to McLaren this weekend. McLaren’s performance on the Pirelli tyres isn’t as good when the ambient temperature is low. The temperature was hot in Malaysia last week and hence we saw McLaren giving Red Bull a run for their money in qualifying. However in the cases of Australia and China, the temperatures are lower and hence we saw Red Bull dominating both Friday practice sessions and qualifying by significant margins. Such fact is confirmed by Jenson Button.

The tyre degradation will be better in this race. A possible two to three stops is predicted by Pirelli after Friday’s practice sessions. Their predictions have been accurate so far this year.

Formula One Betting Strategy

The betting strategy for the race is to focus on Vettel and the two McLarens finishing on podium. And then large gains in positions from Webber and Renault.

If the race unfolds in the way we saw in the previous two races, Vettel will drive off to victory with no surprise. DRS won’t be activated until lap 4 and by the time Vettel will be way ahead of the McLarens. McLaren is unlikely to win this race, but their double podium chance look very strong. With Mark Webber and the two Renaults starting way back, it is unlikely anyone else could challenge McLaren for the two remaining spots on podium.

Alonzo would be the closest but he is starting behind Rosberg. We saw many times last year where a Mercedes car would hold up the rest of the pack and form a train, then whoever were in front of the Mercedes would go on and build a huge margin before pit stops.

Speculating bets

There are some bets which are great value in investment compare to the situation.

Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel 1.50 (Sportsbet)

Will Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button finish on podium – YES 2.25 (Bet365)

Top 6 finish – Vitaly Petrov  2.75 (Bet365)

Top 10 Finish – Kamui Kobayashi 2.25 (Bet 365)

Top 10 Finish – Sergio Perez  3.00 (Bet 365)

Safety Car – No   2.10 (sportsbet)

Vettel to win the race is without a doubt the bet that will most likely to pay off, hence the odds are very low. Most bookmakers are paying below 1.50, only sportsbet is paying 1.50, looks like that’s the place to place this bet!

McLaren’s double podium chance is increased as there is no Webber and Renaults anywhere near them, hence 2.25 looks like a big bargain!

Renault qualified poorly this weekend, but they have had good record in gaining positions off the start this season. And with the fastest straight line speed, they will be able to overtake some cars down the straights. Petrov stopped on the track during qualifying for unknown reasons, but if he doesn’t get penalized for that and the car doesn’t break down, he should be able to make top 6 with some great strategies from the Renault camp.

The Sauber cars are able to look after their tyres the best on the grid. They might be trying for an ambitious one stop strategy this afternoon. They are starting from 12^th and 13^th, and if the one stop strategy works like it did in Australia, top 10 isn’t too far away.

There were safety cars in each of the previous two Chinese GPs, however it was due to the wet weather conditions that caused crashes. With the track this wide and plenty run off areas, it is unlikely safety cars will be deployed unless Petrov decides to stop the car in the middle of the track again. This is further backed by most betting agencies. Most agencies are paying such bet for 1.80s, only sportsbet is paying 2.10, so got to take advantage of that!

My Investments

I am definitely spending more money on the race winner. With $40 already spent on Vettel to win before qualifying at the odds of 1.73, 1.50 seems all right now that it is confirmed he is starting from pole position. Although it is ridiculously low, judging from the weather forecast and the performance Red Bull and McLaren, it is a safe bet.

McLaren’s double podium finishes also look great with 2.25. Only mechanical failure, crashes and extremely poor strategies will prevent McLaren from claiming 2^nd and 3^rd today.

The following are where my $$$ will go:

1. $60 on Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel 1.50 (Sportsbet)
2. $100 on Will Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button finish on podium – YES 2.25 (Bet365)

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Chinese Grand Prix 2011

Friday, April 15, 2011

Sebastian Vettel dominated the first day of Chinese GP, just as he did in Australia a few weeks ago. It seems the race is once again there for Vettel to lose.

Weather Forecast

It looks like it will be a dry weekend. With the ambient temperature of around 16 to 21 degrees Celsius. Much like Melbourne. Red Bull has the advantage of having more down force on their cars, in this case they will be able to warm up the tyres quicker.

Tyres

Tyre evaluation on Friday revealed the tyre degradation rate isn’t as bad as it was in Malaysia last week. With the hard tyres being able to last 20 laps and soft 13 laps on Friday. As the track rubbers in over the weekend, the tyre degradation rate will only improve. Pirelli thinks there will be two to three stops, and Sergio Perez possibly will attempt an ambitious one stop strategy again.

Formula One Betting Strategy

As there is more information gathered on the tyres now, there is a better understanding on the race conditions. Although the track grip level and corners are completely different, there are many similarities on between Shanghai and Melbourne. The ambient temperatures are similar, and so is the tyre degradation rate. And in both occasions Red Bull have dominated Friday practice sessions. We will likely to see Vettel claiming the pole this time.

However since Vettel’s qualifying records in the past 12 months have been second to no one else, the odds are ridiculously low.

The betting strategy right now is once again to place the bets after qualifying. Let’s make sure Vettel is 100% starting from Pole position then we place the winning bets there. Situations could change if Hamilton by surprise out qualifies Vettel to pole position.

Speculating bets

The speculating bets are still on the two Renaults to finish on podium. This once again need them to have brilliant start into first corner during the race and excellent strategies during the race.

Heidfeld is paying 6.00 and Petrov is paying 10.00. Both odds are very high at the moment and have rooms to drop.

Vettel is paying 1.73 to win the race at this stage. By looking at the risk/reward ratio, it is a good idea to place money on Vettel to win at this stage. He is highly likely to win pole position, and if he does, the odds will likely to drop below 1.50. Vettel will again need a mechanical failure in his car to not win this race.

My $$$$

Usually it is safer to place bets after qualifying, but from what we have seen so far this season, it will likely to be the case when someone wins the first couple of races from pole position.

In this case I am betting for it, hence I am putting my money down on Vettel to win before qualifying begins.

• $40 on Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel 1.73

The bet is $40 not $100 because it is before qualifying and there is still some risks involved on this bet. If Hamilton out-qualifies Vettel this odds will likely increase, and the situations will change as well as Vettel’s winning chance.

There should be more bets worth investing after qualifying.

F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Chinese Grand Prix 2011

Thursday, April 14, 2011

The Chinese Grand Prix circuit is a modern Formula One race track. Its artistic layout of the Chinese character “ 上” and the two main straights are the two main features.

The two main straights supposedly will provide more overtaking opportunities with the use of KERS and DRS this year. However those two straights have produced nothing but boredom for the TV viewers over the years.

Weather Forecast

Weather contributed to the results of the previous two Chinese GPs. The weather forecast shows it won’t be the case this year. However we have seen the inaccuracy of weather forecast in Malaysia last week.

The temperature this weekend won’t be as hot as it was in Malaysia last week. It will be mostly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday.

Tyres

The tyres again will be the soft and the hard compounds of Pirelli. The good news is we already saw the performance of both tyres in Malaysia. This track has many similarities to the Malaysian GP circuit, including the two main straights and the high speed corners.

The tyre degradation will likely to be just as bad. And we already know what to expect during the race this weekend. Three and four stops will likely be the case again.

Formula One Betting Strategy

As usual it is best to keep the hands off and observe the situation at this stage. The main difference between this race and Malaysian GP would be the track temperature. Shanghai has lower ambient temperature to Kuala Lumpur, hence we will keep an eye on the Friday tyre evaluation reports.

Speculating bets

The winner of this race should be either Vettel or Hamilton. Both drivers have out qualified their teammates consistently. And the leader of the race will once again prevail.

Vettel is currently paying as low as 2.00 on sportsbet.com.au, and Hamilton is paying 4.50. The odds are fairly reasonable as nothing has happened yet.

The two speculating bets are on the two Renault drivers to finish on podium:

• Podium Finish – Nick Heidfeld 4.50
• Podium Finish – Vitaly Petrov 10.00

Both bets are good value at this stage. They are worth while keeping an eye on throughout the weekend.

The statistics from the previous two races have showed both Renault cars have gained significant places off the starts. Plus they are the fastest cars on straights. In many occasions they have proved they are difficult to overtake.

The following are the current odds for race winners:

Vettel  2.00

Hamilton 4.50

Webber 7.50

Button 7.50

Alonzo 10.00

Massa 41.00

Rosberg 67.00

Schumacher 81.00