F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Canadian Grand Prix 2011

Monday, June 13, 2011

Canadian Grand Prix once again produced an exciting race. Any crazy scenario that could have happened happened in this race.

This race showed how unpredictable a wet race could be. Although two of the three recommended bets paid off, the outcomes could have easily been completely different.

Jenson Button beat Mark Webber and Kamui Kobayashi finished in top 10.

Button at one stage looked like he had no chance in beating Webber in head to head.

The early strategic gamble to switch to intermediate tyres failed to pay off, and with a drive through penalty, it looked like his race was over.

However as the track started to dry up the situation started to turn towards his way.

Taking a look at all Jenson Button’s ten race victories in Formula One, half of them came from wet weather races. This include his maiden victory in 2006 Hungarian GP, 2009 Malaysian GP, 2010 Australian GP, 2010 Chinese GP and 2011 Canadian GP.

This is an amazing record. He will always be the guy to look for whenever there is change in weather conditions.

Kobayashi once again had a great race. Despite being overtaken by Massa at the finish line, he consistently qualified outside top 10 but finish within.

Despite the near two hours red flag period during the race, the exciting end to the race showed it was all worth the wait.

2011 Canadian Grand Prix was a mix of drama, action and comedy. There were teammate war, more crashes and track marshals falling on the track.

The race began with the McLarens doing a “Red Bull drama”. Many times before the two McLaren cars had come very close to crashing into each other, but this time McLaren fans’ worst nightmare finally came true.

However unlike Red Bull’s Turkish Grand Prix 2010 drama, McLaren finished the race on top.

Jenson Button had a brilliant drive, starting in the 21^st position when the race restarted. He kept on making his way up the field and eventually caught up to Vettel in the final laps. He pressured Vettel into a rare mistake and snatched the victory away.

As the visibility and tyre grip were low in wet weather condition, cars were coming into each other. It started with Hamilton and Webber coming together in turn 2. Numerous cars failed to finish the race, including Alonzo, who had a collision with Button.

Race Strategy Debrief

Whatever race strategies there were before the race, they were all out of the window as the race began under safety car in the wet track. All strategic decisions had to be made upon changes in track condition.

All cars were on full wet tyres when the race started under safety car. As the track started to dry up, everyone started to switch from wet to intermediate, then intermediate to the slick tyres.

Taking the risk to be the first driver to bolt on the slick tyres is a fantastic way to make the “undercut” strategy work brilliantly. The result in a drying track could be rewarding.

Webber was the first driver to take such gamble in lap 49 and it paid off for him. Jenson Button followed his foot step soon after and it turned out Button was once again unstoppable in slicks in the drying track.

Vettel’s final lap mistake showed how easy it was to spin the car around in that condition. Vettel has successfully defended his positions on the final laps of the previous races, but this time he finally buckled under pressure.

Vettel was obviously disappointed after the race. This is Vettel’s biggest set back to the 2011 championship yet.

European Grand Prix is the next race, which is two weeks from now in Valencia, Spain.

It was a Red Bull track last year. Let’s see if Vettel is able to brush off the disappointment from this race and repeat the race victory, or perhaps his luck for 2011 has run out?

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Canadian Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Vettel’s odds to win the race are now 2.00. Which is quite high compare to the previous races.

This is because Ferrari looked very strong in qualifying. Alonzo and Massa qualifying second and third respectively. The fact that Massa out-qualified Webber and the McLarens shows Ferrari is really fast this weekend.

Vettel certainly does not look as strong as he has been. Nevertheless he is starting from pole position and will be able to control the race at least for the first stint.

Changes in track temperature and weather will be the variable factors to race result.

Canadian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Race Winner

Vettel:  2.00

Hamilton:  7.50

Webber: 8.00

Button: 15.00

Alonzo: 3.00

Rosberg: 41.00

Massa: 13.00

Schumacher: 81.00

Heidfeld: 101.00

Petrov: 151.00

Place

Vettel:  1.22

Hamilton:  1.90

Webber: 2.00

Button: 2.75

Alonzo: 1.30

Rosberg: 6.00

Massa: 2.00

Schumacher: 14.00

Heidfeld: 19.00

Petrov: 21.00

F1 Betting Strategy

Although it did not rain in qualifying, the threat of rain during the race still remains.

McLaren’s strategy to set up the car with higher down force backfired in qualifying, but if it rains during the race, it might turn out to be a race winning call. Just like their decision to save a set of tyres in Chinese Grand Prix qualifying.

It is not a good idea to bet in wet weather conditions, but given there is 70% chance of rain and McLaren is the only front runner that has the car set up for it. It could be a good gamble to invest on both of their drivers. This is further supported by McLaren race pace this season, which is usually faster than Red Bull.

Recommended Bets

• Place – Lewis Hamilton 1.90

This bet is more likely to pay off if it rains. However if it does not, Webber has a poor record off the start this season, and Massa’s strategy is likely to be compromised for Alonzo’s when there is safety car during the race.

• Head to Head – Button vs. Webber – Button 2.19

Webber still has the problem with KERS. Red Bull’s issues with KERS have cost them many positions off the start. If Webber cannot get a good start, then certainly it is all down hill from there.

• Top 10 – Kamui Kobayashi 1.90

Kobayashi will start the race from P13. He is very good off the start. With more set of fresh tyres than the top 10 qualifiers, 1.90 for him to finish in top 10 is not a bad choice even in wet weather condition.

With the weather likely to play its part during the race, punters need to be extra careful in placing the bets.

Weather Forecast

There is 70% chance of rain with the ambient air temperature on top of 20 degrees Celsius.

Please check the latest weather update before making any betting decisions.

Tyres/Race Strategy

Every time there is safety car on the track, there can be changes to each driver’s race strategy.

The chance of safety car is high on this circuit. The odds for having safety car during the Canadian Grand Prix are only 1.22.

Unlike Monaco Grand Prix, this track has more overtaking opportunities. The driver with the better tyre conditions at the given will win in the on track battle this time. Therefore we will likely to see cars diving into pits early in order to “undercut” their rivals on track.

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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Canadian Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, June 11, 2011

Sebastian Vettel was the victim of the wall of champions on practice session one.

Vettel’s odds have increased as the result of the crash. However he was back in action in practice session two and finished the session second on the time sheet.

Alonzo’s odds for podium finish have also dropped as the result of being the fastest driver on practice session two.

Qualifying might be affected by rain, so punters please bear in mind.

Canadian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:  1.93

Hamilton:  4.25

Webber: 7.50

Alonzo: 7.50

Button: 8.50

Rosberg: 19.00

Massa: 17.00

Schumacher: 41.00

Heidfeld: 126.00

Petrov: 126.00

Race Winner

Vettel:  2.50

Hamilton:  3.33

Webber: 7.00

Button: 7.00

Alonzo: 5.00

Rosberg: 26.00

Massa: 41.00

Schumacher: 51.00

Heidfeld: 81.00

Petrov: 101.00

Place

Vettel:  1.28

Hamilton:  1.40

Webber: 2.00

Button: 2.00

Alonzo: 1.69

Rosberg: 5.00

Massa: 5.00

Schumacher: 9.00

Heidfeld: 14.00

Petrov: 15.00

F1 Betting Strategy

Due to the overcast, it is still better to hold onto the bet until it is certain that it won’t rain during qualifying.

Vettel’s car didn’t seem to be affected by the crash in FP1. He had a crash in the practice session of Turkish Grand Prix as well, and he still won the pole position.

Vettel’s odds have once again increased after the crash, however this time the risk in betting on his pole position comes from the possible rain.

Mercedes looked strong on Friday. Few times this season their pace has looked promising on Fridays and Saturdays, but they often finished the weekend with more disappointment. Let’s see if this is just another of those weekend this time.

Speculating Bet

• Pole Position – Sebastian Vettel 1.93

If it does not rain at all, Vettel to take pole position at 1.93 is a great investment. This is the longest pole position odds for Vettel in recent races.

Red Bull is usually much faster in qualifying than race. Despite not having the fastest car in the straights and with no high speed corners on this track. Vettel’s chance of claiming another pole position is still high.

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast has not changed. It is still overcast on Saturday with the 50% chance of rain. The ambient air temperature is about 20 degrees Celsius on top.

Tyres/Race Strategy

There hasn’t been much discussion on the tyre performance after the Friday practice sessions. The tyre degradation is usually high at the beginning of the weekend on this track, then it improves at a fast rate as the weekend goes by.

F1 Pre-Weekend Betting Analysis – Canadian Grand Prix 2011

Friday, June 10, 2011

Canadian Grand Prix usually produces surprising results. Over the past couple of years, the eventual world champion of the year has failed to win Canadian Grand Prix. Let’s see where Vettel will end up this weekend!

Canadian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:  1.73

Hamilton:  3.75

Webber: 5.00

Button: 8.50

Alonzo: 13.00

Rosberg: 51.00

Massa: 51.00

Schumacher: 81.00

Heidfeld: 81.00

Petrov: 101.00

Race Winner

Vettel:  2.25

Hamilton:  3.25

Webber: 5.00

Button: 7.50

Alonzo: 8.50

Rosberg: 41.00

Massa: 51.00

Schumacher: 67.00

Heidfeld: 67.00

Petrov: 101.00

F1 Betting Strategy

The bookmakers favour Vettel to win pole position and the race as usual, but there is threat of wet weather.

Given the current condition and the wet weather forecast, it is again better to hold on to the wallet at this stage and see what happens after Friday’s practice sessions.

Weather will probably be a bigger threat to Red Bull than the two DRS straights on this track.

Both DRS straights begin with slow corners, the much higher down forced Red Bull cars will get the better drive off the exits.

As we have seen in many occasions this year, Vettel has never been overtaken by the McLarens at the DRS straights. Especially in Turkey, where there was a record number of overtaking moves during the race.

Webber out qualified Vettel on this track last year. He might do so again as he showed he still can be faster than Vettel in qualifying of Spanish Grand Prix several weeks ago.

Hamilton is usually strong on this track. He had his maiden pole position and race victory here in 2007. And he won the race from pole again last year. He may be fast, but he can only go as fast as his McLaren MP4-26 allows him. Which usually is not as quick as Vettel’s Red Bull RB7.

Speculating Bets

• Fastest Lap time – Mark Webber 3.25

Webber has set the fastest lap times in the previous four races. His motivation comes from stopping Vettel getting the hat tricks every grand prix.

This shows he clearly has the pace, but simply can’t be fast enough when it matters the most. This is much like Kimi Raikkonen in 2009, consistently setting fastest lap times of the race, but most of the time he was behind Massa.

If Webber could continue to be consistent in setting the fastest lap times, then it would be great for the punters.

Webber is now bookmaker’s favourite to set the fastest lap time of the race. And with the record so far this season, it is worth keeping an eye on throughout the weekend.

• Place – Fernando Alonzo 2.10

Alonza has been driving as well as he possibly could. Ferrari certainly does not have the fastest car, but with possible safety car periods during the race, along with Alonzo’s ability and the use of strategy, podium finish at 2.10 is a good return for investment.

Weather Forecast

It will be a sunny Friday. Which is good news, because this gives us an opportunity to learn more about the track and tyre conditions, and how it will affect the race strategy. However there is chance of shower on Saturday and Sunday. This will bring some variable factors to betting.

The ambient air temperature will be on top of around 20 degrees Celsius.

Tyre and Race Strategy

Continue from Monaco Grand Prix, Pirelli has brought the same tyre compounds to Canadian Grand Prix – super soft and soft.

In Monaco it was discovered that both tyres had high durability and low degradation. However the track layout, surface and temperature are completely different in Canada. Therefore the rate of degradation will be different.

This race last year Bridgestone tyres suffered the worst degradation. This was due to the massive changes in track temperature throughout the weekend.

The track temperature here will again be lower than that of Monaco two weeks ago. Pirelli is more than certain that one stop strategy is not the way to go.

Four stops strategy is likely to be the case, and “undercut” during the race will be the way to overtake!

Furthermore the pit lane is short on this track, much less time is needed in making a pit stop.

Safety Car

The traffic light at the end of the pit lane always seems to cause problems to the drivers. Somehow drivers just don’t seem to see the big red light at the end of the pit lane.

The new safety car rule this year ensures this won’t happen again. The following is the change to safety car rule this year:

“During a safety car period the pit exit light will remain green for the duration, unless the race is subsequently suspended. Other than when the safety car has been asked to use the pit lane, no car may entre the pits while the safety car is deployed unless it is for the purpose of changing tyres.”