F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – British Grand Prix 2011

Monday, July 11, 2011

Fernando Alonzo’s race victory at British Grand Prix has brought some variety to the 2011 F1 World Championship.

His odds to win were 4.00 prior to the race!

This could not be done without Red Bull’s rare pit stop mistake. Otherwise it would likely have been another Vettel victory.

Mark Webber once again failed to take advantage on his pole position. Perhaps we should just bet on him to finish third or fourth from now.

He has been consistently finishing third or fourth this season, regardless where he start, from pole position to 16^th on the grid.

Jaime Alguersuari once again was eliminated on qualifying session one, but finished the race in top 10.

His odds to finish in top 10 were 4.80 prior to the race!

Race Strategy Debrief

The race started in a partial wet condition, everybody started in intermediate tyres.

This meant only one dry tyre compound needed to be used during the race.

From the record, Jenson Button would have exceled in this condition, but it was not the case.

He started the race in fourth, but was quickly caught up by teammate Hamilton who started tenth. After watching Michael Schumacher setting some quick lap times in dry tyres, Button was the first of the front runners to switch onto the soft compound of slick tyres, but that only helped him so little.

Vettel’s had the race victory in his pocket after a great start to jump Webber. This was almost a revenge to last year where he had the pole position, but was overtaken by Webber off the start. Only Vettel did not win this time.

Unfortunately Vettel’s poor pit stop during the race did not allow him to capitalise on the opportunity. Alonzo got ahead of Vettel in the pit stop, and Vettel was further held up by Massa when he came out the pit.

Alonzo used the opportunity to increase the gap, and Vettel’s struggle of pace at the end of the race continues as he was helpless to stop Alonzo from winning the 2011 British Grand Prix, but was challenged by Webber for the second position.

It was shame that the blown diffuser debate had taken the spotlight of race strategies this weekend. And in the end it was agreed that the rules will go back to what it was at the European Grand Prix – where there is no change in engine mapping between qualifying and the race.

It looked like Ferrari had gained a bit of advantage, and McLaren had suffered as the result of the off throttle rule changes this weekend. But things will go back to what it was from the next race of German Grand Prix to the end of the season.

This is great news for the punters as the race results will be more predictable once again!

F1 Race Betting Analysis – British Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, July 10, 2011

The talks on the off throttle blown diffuser continued on the British GP weekend, but whatever the change of rules there were. It did not stop Red Bull from claiming another pole position.

Vettel’s advantage over Webber in qualifying seemed to have disappeared. This is very likely due to the change in rule in off throttle diffuser.

This is Webber’s best chance to take his first victory of the season yet!

F1 Betting Strategy

Due to the odd scenario, Vettel is not starting from pole position this time. This is good news on the bookmaker’s odds. As the favourite to win the race is now Webber at 2.60.If Vettel had taken another pole position, his odds to win would be around 1.50.

Webber had qualified on pole earlier this year in Spanish Grand Prix, but he failed to convert into a race victory.This time around he should be able to do a better job, and finish the race where he starts.

Silverstone is not a pole position friendly track. This is because the second starting position usually has very good grip level as well.

Webber started second last year, and got the better of Vettel into turn 1.

However it rained on both Friday and Saturday, which means the second starting position won’t be as grippy this time around. Therefore advantage has gone to Webber once again.

McLaren did not have a good qualifying session. Button qualified fifth, and Hamilton was tenth.

Last year McLaren had a miserable qualifying session as well. This is where they introduced their own blown diffuser. However they did not get the system set up right, and had to qualify on a compromised set up. Nevertheless they turned the weekend around over night. Jenson Button qualified fourteenth, and finished the race in fourth. Hamilton qualified fourth, and finished the race second.

There is a chance for McLaren to turn around their weekend again. The circuit does not provide many overtaking opportunities, but a short pit-lane allows strategies to be creative.

Jenson Button is usually adventurous on race strategies. By running different strategies ie. One more or one less pit stop than the others during the race will make differences to the race result.

Let’s see what McLaren strategists have in mind.

Recommended Bets

• Race Winner – Webber 2.60

Even on the days when Michael Schumacher dominated the season, Rubens Barrichello still got to win a few races.

Vettel has so far dominated the season, this has to be Webber’s time even if Vettel’s domination continues after the blown diffuser ban.

• Podium Finish – Jenson Button 3.50

It is either make or break for Button. Both Ferraris are ahead of him. He will have to take gambles on the race strategies.

Although he qualified about one and half second slower than Webber, it is a different story for the race as the cars will be heavier and everything will be different to qualifying.

The opportunity will turn his way in the second half of the race if Red Bull and Ferrari starts playing the undercutting games early in the race.

Let’s see whether there is much change on the field with the new rule in place.

Speculating Bets

• Points Finish – Jaime Alguersuari 4.80

He once again failed to make it through Q1, let’s see if he continues to take advantage of fresh tyres and finish in top ten.

British Grand Prix Betting Odds

Race Winner

Webber: 2.60

Vettel:  2.90

Alonzo: 4.00

Button: 17.25

Massa: 17.25

Hamilton:  21.00

Rosberg: 106.00

Schumacher: 151.00

Heidfeld: 211.00

Petrov: 261.00

Place

Vettel:  1.28

Webber: 1.35

Alonzo: 1.42

Button: 3.50

Hamilton:  3.88

Rosberg: 9.50

Massa: 3.02

Schumacher: 27.00

Heidfeld: 70.00

Petrov: 52.00

Weather Forecast

The Weather forecast is fine and cloudy. The ambient air temperature is around 22 degrees Celsius.

Tyre and Race Strategy

The controversy coming to the race day still surrounds off throttle diffuser, when it should be all about drivers and the race strategy.

A three stops strategy is expected for the race.

However all the front runners went out for two runs in the final session of qualifying, although most of them did not do flying laps in the second run. This means one less set of fresh tyres available during the race.

And with the likelihood of undercuts during the race, which sacrifices the optimal tyre life spans for track positions. There is likely going to be an additional stop towards the end of the race.

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – British Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, July 9, 2011

The focus on the weekend so far has been about the off throttle blown diffuser.

The debate began a couple of races ago with hot air/ cold air blown diffuser, now it has moved onto the percentage of throttle opening when the drivers are off throttle. All these rules changes have confused the mass public.

Nevertheless whatever changes there shall be, it applies to everyone.

At the end of the day it is the final track positions we are betting on, not relative lap times.

The Friday practice sessions were interrupted by wet weather. Mark Webber topped session one and Felipe Massa topped session two.

F1 Betting Strategy

The betting strategy is still leaning towards Vettel’s yet another pole position and followed by race victory.

Although weather might play a part in qualifying.

It has been noted that Alguersuari has used a few Q1 eliminations to his advantage this season. Using extra sets of fresh tyres during the race to gain significant number of track positions.

He has finished in top 10 and scored some championship points in the past few races.

We should definitely keep an eye on the qualifying session 1 eliminator this weekend, as they will have the opportunity to pit at different moments during the race. And hence use the differences in tyre grips to overtake others.

The last time there was such major mid season change in rule interpretation was back in 2006. Which was about the use of mass damper in the nose cone.

The change was more specifically targeting towards Renault. As Renault was the only team that had such system. Although Renault’s pace was affected slightly back then, Alonzo still managed retain in championship lead throughout the whole year and held off Schumacher to win the title.

This time the change is targeting at the entire field’s off throttle blown diffuser system, not specifically at Red Bull.

Hence it is unlikely Red Bull’s relative pace to McLaren and Ferrari will drop off.

The bookmakers seem to agree with it. As Webber’s odds on both pole position and race victory have dropped lower than Hamilton and Alonzo after the Friday practice sessions.

British Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:  1.50

Webber: 4.90

Hamilton:  10.20

Alonzo: 11.50

Button: 21.00

Massa: 44.00

Rosberg: 52.00

Schumacher: 70.00

Heidfeld: 151.00

Petrov: 151.00

Race Winner

Vettel:  1.82

Webber:  6.30

Hamilton: 6.90

Alonzo: 7.40

Button: 11.90

Massa: 44.00

Rosberg: 70.00

Schumacher: 70.00

Heidfeld: 106.00

Petrov: 106.00

Podium Finish

Vettel:  1.27

Webber: 1.69

Hamilton:  1.78

Alonzo: 1.78

Button: 2.29

Massa: 7.80

Rosberg: 10.20

Schumacher: 19.75

Heidfeld: 27.00

Petrov: 27.00

Recommended Bet

• Pole Position – Vettel 1.50

This is to presume the qualifying session is dry.

Speculating Bet

• Who ever qualifies second to lead the race after lap 1.
• Race Winner – Vettel 1.82

Weather Forecast

The forecast was right on Friday, parts of practice sessions were wet.

There is 30% chance of rain on Satruday and fine on Sunday.

The weather has more chance to stop Vettel from taking another pole position than the ban on off throttle blown diffuser.

Tyre and Race Strategy

The track is slippery but the soft compound of Pirelli tyres should be able to hold on. There are other series running this weekend on the same track, and hence this will help the track to rubber in.

The pit-lane is very short on this track, this means every strategist will be thinking about undercutting during the race.

There are not many overtaking opportunities on this track apart from the new sections of the track. Hence track positions will be gold.

F1 Pre-Weekend Betting Analysis – British Grand Prix 2011

Thursday, July 7, 2011

British Grand Prix in Silverstone is a significant event on the Formula One World Championship calendar. This is where the first ever Formula One race was held.

Silverstone has traditionally been a non-overtaking track, however the track was modified prior to the 2010 British Grand Prix, and the situation had improved.

This year there is a new pit-lane. The new pit-lane is rather short, and this will play a part in the race strategy decisions.

F1 Betting Strategy

Lap 1, turn 1 is just as important on this track as any other track. However the second starting position has just as much grip if not more than the pole position.

Pole positions do not always end up winning in Silverstone. The most recent example is last year, Webber started in P2 and got the better of Vettel who started in pole position. Webber then won the race from there.

Prior to that in 2007 Hamilton had the pole position, but Raikkonen who qualified second won the race.

Hence investing money on the driver who qualified second to lead the race after one lap is a great idea!

Last year Webber’s odds were 5.00.

Vettel will likely to walk away with another pole position, making it third year in a row for the German.

Red Bull has also dominated in Silverstone for the previous two years. He should walk away with another race victory if wet weather does not play a part in qualifying or race.

The ban on the use of off throttle diffuser will be the topic everyone is talking about this weekend.

While most people believe this will disadvantage Red Bull more than others. It might not be the case. As most front-runners use such system, anyone who used it would suffer.

Nevertheless it will bring some changes to the race strategy.

The hot air blown diffuser system increases the fuel consumption by 15%. By not using it, it means cars will be carrying 15% less fuel at the start of the race from now.

The tyre degradation rate will improve as the result of it. And as we already know, the reason for the increase of overtakings this season is due to tyre degradation.

British Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:  1.50

Webber: 6.75

Hamilton:  8.80

Alonzo: 8.80

Button: 15.25

Rosberg: 52.00

Massa: 44.00

Schumacher: 106.00

Heidfeld: 151.00

Petrov: 151.00

Race Winner

Vettel:  1.82

Hamilton:  6.30

Webber: 6.90

Alonzo: 6.30

Button: 11.90

Rosberg: 70.00

Massa: 44.00

Schumacher: 106.00

Heidfeld: 106.00

Petrov: 101.00

Place

Vettel:  1.27

Hamilton:  1.70

Alonzo: 1.78

Webber: 1.87

Button: 2.24

Massa: 7.10

Rosberg: 9.20

Schumacher: 19.75

Heidfeld: 27.00

Petrov: 27.00

Recommended Bet

• Vettel for pole 1.50

This is to presume the qualifying session is dry.

Speculating Bet

• Who ever qualifies second to lead the race after lap 1.

Weather Forecast

There is overcast on Friday and Saturday. Therefore we might not get to know too much about the tyre performance on this track till the race.

Wet weather will be the only factor that will stop Vettel from taking another pole position.

Tyre and Race Strategy

The tyres that will be used in British Grand Prix 2011 will be the same tyres that were used in Spanish Grand Prix.

Which are the most used tyres in the championship this year.

The prime tyre is the Pirelli hard compound (marked in silver), and the option tyre is the Pirelli soft compound (marked in yellow).

There were four stops in Spanish Grand Prix. Perhaps only three is required in British Grand Prix for the race winner.

The fuel consumption is 2.9kg of fuel per lap in Silverstone. 150 kg of fuel is required for this race.

With the ban on hot air off throttle blown diffuser, the cars will carry 15% less fuel at the start of the race.

This means the cars will be about 20kg lighter at the start of the race.

20 kg of fuel is worth about five race laps.

Stretching five laps longer in the first stint of the race is enough to be the differences between “Plan A” and “Plan B”.

With the lighter car, tyre degradation will improve. Each stint will be stretched longer – hence less time will be spent on the hard tyres.

The only way to make significant gains on track positions during the race will probably be using different strategies to most other drivers.

The pit-lane is short, there is only about 16 seconds time loss in a pit stop in Silverstone. This will give the strategists some creative ideas.

The change in rule interpretation half way through the season may have the intention in making the field level, but there is a chance it might back fire!