F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Belgian Grand Prix 2011

Monday, August 29, 2011

On a track where Red Bull has shown vulnerability in the past few years, Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber had a one two finish to prove their cars can win in any type of racetrack.

The odds on Vettel to win the race after qualifying were 2.60. It was much higher than any other occasion this year when Vettel started from pole position.

Hamilton’s race winner bet did not look good when he was overtaken by Massa and Alonzo in the first stint of the race.

He fell further behind after the first pit stop. Unfortunately it got worse for Hamilton as he later on crashed out.

The bet on Jenson Button’s podium finish at the odds of 3.00 paid off despite a poor start from 13^th.

The tyre strategies again contributed heavily to the outcome of this race. The second and third placed Webber and Button both used the medium compound early, then both were able to use the soft tyres to overtake Alonzo who was on the mediums in the latter part of the race.

Red Bull’s problem with blistering the tyres did not look good early in the race. Webber had to pit in lap 5 and Vettel was complaining about the blister on the front left tyre over the radio just a few laps into the race.

Hamilton, Massa and Alonzo were busy trading positions early on.

Vettel was able to make up for a lot of time after an early switch to the new set of soft tyres, thanks to Rosberg’s strong start which played a part in holding up Alonzo, Hamilton and Massa.

The race victory did not look good for Vettel as it looked like Vettel had made the first pit too early and he would struggle with the grip towards the end of the race.

However Hamilton’s crash that deployed the safety car turned the situation around. Vettel was able to make his stint last a bit longer, and with careful management on the tyres for the remaining of the race, he was able to get away from final laps assaults from Webber and possibly Button.

After failing to qualify into top 10. Jenson Button saved a set of fresh tyres and did not have to start the race with the tyre he qualify with.

He surprised everyone by starting the race on the medium compound. Although he made his first stop in as early as lap 5, having saved a set of soft tyres in qualifying meant he still could be competitive in the second half of the race.

By running different strategies to the majority, Button’s gamble on tyre strategy once again paid off for him.

Michael Schumacher was another driver who had a miserable qualifying session, but took advantage of the extra set of soft tyres he saved. He had a great battle with Rosberg in the final stint of the race, and eventually finished 5^th on the 20^th anniversary since his F1 debut.

This race again highlights the importance of tyre strategies in this year’s F1 world Championship. It is all about being on the right tyres at the right time!

The next race is Italian Grand Prix in Monza. It is another track where the straight line speed is crucial.

Red Bull was absolutely outclassed by Ferrari and McLaren in Monza last year, let’s see if they can carry on the momentum from Belgium Grand Prix and prove to the world they have turned their weakness to strength in Italian Grand Prix.

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Belgian Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Sebastian Vettel once again exceled at the end of qualifying session and took his 9^th pole position of the season.

The session was wet and dry, Q1 and Q2 were done on the intermediate tyres. And the times in Q3 were mostly on the dry tyres.

Jenson Button was the victim of the rapid drying race track at the end of Q2. Where he was on top of Q2 briefly before the track started to dry up and the lap times started tumble. He will start Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix from 13^th.

It is actually not a bad news to Button fans and the punters, as he will have one more set of soft tyres to use during the race. Furthermore Spa is well known for its rapid changing weather conditions. Although weather forecast suggest it will unlikely rain, you can never rule out the chance in Spa.

If the race start in wet and dries out during the race. We all know who will stand out tall in that condition – Jenson Button.

Alonzo on the other hand was not so lucky. He was out qualified by teammate Massa in a rare occasion this season. Furthermore he will start the race behind a Renault in Bruno Senna. Renault has impressive straight line speed, we will see if Senna will ruin Alonzo’s race today.

F1 Betting Strategy

In a dry condition, the race victory should belong to Lewis Hamilton. As McLaren has proven in many situations this season that they are much faster than Red Bull during the race.

Red Bull will be vulnerable in sector one as majority of the sector is spent on full throttle. McLaren has always been more superior than Red Bull in the straight line speed due to their Mercedes engine and their KERS system.

Furthermore the track temperature will be low. The last time the low track temperature in combination with the same tyre compounds were back in Nurburgring, in which Hamilton won the race.

It will be a real surprise if Lewis Hamilton doesn’t win this race because he is held up by Vettel for the entire race.

Many times this season we have seen drivers getting knocked out early in qualifying session, but took advantage of the extra fresh set of tyres during the race. Jenson Button will be able to do just that in the Belgian Grand Prix.

Again with the straight line speed advantage in McLaren, he probably does not even need the rain to help him make it to top 6 this time. With the help of strategy, podium finish is not impossible.

The track is long hence traffic will not be as much of a problem if Button decides to run a different strategy to others.

Recommended Bets

• Race Winner – Hamilton 2.75
• Podium – Button 3.00
• Dual Forecast – Vettel and Hamilton 2.29

The weather is always unpredictable in Spa, Hamilton’s race winning bet should be avoided if it rains.

However Button’s chance to excel increases massively if there is change in race track conditions. A podium finish should be a fair call for Button in variable weather conditions during the race.

Dual forecast in Vettel and Hamilton is not a bad choice considering Button and Alonzo are both starting from further back the field, if it is a dry race.

Webber and Massa does not seem to have what it takes to challenge those two front runners this season. Especially Webber who often cannot make his tyres last as long as Vettel.

Weather Forecast

The most recent weather forecast shows it will be a cloudy day with the ambient air temperature on top of 17 degrees Celsius.

Hungarian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Race Winner

Vettel:               2.60

Hamilton:          2.75

Webber:           6.00

Alonzo:             11.00

Button:             15.00

Massa:             21.00

Rosberg:          34.00

Schumacher:   201.00

Petrov:             251.00

Place

Vettel:               1.30

Alonzo:             2.40

Hamilton:          1.36

Button:              3.00

Webber:            1.62

Massa:              4.00

Rosberg:           9.00

Petrov:             51.00

Schumacher:   67.00

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Belgiam Grand Prix 2011

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Although Mark Webber topped practice session two on Friday, Red Bull is having their biggest challenge in qualifying this season yet.

Their underpowered Renault engine will put them on the back of the heels when coming up against Mercedes and Ferrari in the circuit de Spa-Francorchamps.

Furthermore, DRS had so far been allowed to be used anywhere on the track this season in practice and qualifying, the system will not be allowed in Eau Rouge this weekend.

The use of DRS has given Red Bull tremendous amount of advantage in qualifying this season. This is why they have dominated qualifying this season so far.

Red Bull’s pole position streak will likely end this weekend or the next race in Monza.

F1 Betting Strategy

After the Friday practice sessions, Vettel’s odds on both pole position and race winner have both increased.

This shows the bookmakers think Vettel’s chance of pole position and race win have both decreased.

Although Webber topped practice session two, the circuit layout, the engine power plant and the ban of DRS in Eau Rouge shows Red Bull will not have the advantage they had earlier in the season.

This is the punters best chance to invest on Hamilton or Alonzo to win pole position yet.

And if Red Bull does not win pole position today, then the race winner will be easier to predict from there.

As Red Bull will unlikely have the race pace to match McLaren and Ferrari on this track.

It will again be interesting to see the lap times in practice session three.

Red Bull has topped most of practice session three this year, because most teams run qualifying simulations in P3. We will see how Red Bull’s P3 pace compares to that of McLaren and Ferrari.

Speculating Bets

• Pole Position: Hamilton 3.78
• Pole Position: Alonzo 6.75
• Race Winner: 3.50
• Race Winner: 4.50

As mentioned previously, this is McLaren and Ferrari’s best chance break their pole position drought this season. Hence the speculating bets are on the better qualifiers of each team – Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonzo.

Once Hamilton or Alonzo get ahead of the Red Bull duo, it is unlikely they will be caught up again in the race.

As the Renault powered Red Bull will not have the straight line speed advantage to overtake McLaren or Ferrari.

Belgian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:              2.28

Hamilton:         3.78

Webber:           5.60

Alonzo:             6.75

Button:             13.00

Massa:             34.00

Rosberg:          106.00

Schumacher:   106.00

Petrov:            261.00

Race Winner

Vettel:               3.00

Hamilton:          3.50

Alonzo:             4.50

Button:              7.00

Webber:           7.50

Massa:             26.00

Rosberg:          101.00

Schumacher:   101.00

Petrov:             251.00

Place

Vettel:              1.30

Hamilton:         1.50

Alonzo:            1.53

Webber:           2.10

Button:             2.10

Massa:             6.50

Rosberg:         17.00

Schumacher:   26.00

Petrov:             51.00

Weather Forecast

The most updated weather forecast shows Saturday will be a cloudy day with the temperature on top of 16 degrees celsius. There will be some more sunshine on Sunday with the air temperature 17 degrees Celsius on top.

F1 Pre-Weekend Betting Analysis – Belgian Grand Prix 2011

Thursday, August 25, 2011

After four weeks of waiting, finally Formula One is back. It already seems the previous race in Hungary was distance away.

There is a two weeks compulsory factory shut down on each team during the four weeks break. The results of the hard works done by the engineers in the past two working weeks will be revealed this weekend in Belgian Grand Prix.

Vettel is still the favourite to win pole position and the race. Red Bull’s pole position streak has yet to be broken this year, let’s see if Hamilton or Alonzo will have a chance to break their pole position drought this weekend.

There is chance of shower on Friday and Saturday. The track temperature will be a concern for the engineers this weekend, especially with the tyres Pirelli has brought.

The strategy will be somewhat similar to it was in Nurburgring, maximise the use of the option tyre during the race.

F1 Betting Strategy

After the long summer break, it is difficult to see which team and which driver will come out on top at this stage. Especially the last dry race was the German Grand Prix, which was five week ago.

Although it was a very close battle between Hamilton, Alonzo and Webber in Nurburgring, five weeks is an eternity in the rapid technology development world of Formula One.

There is much higher potential for the race results to surprise the bookmakers this weekend, so let’s observe how the teams go on Friday practice sessions.

Belgian Grand Prix Betting Odds

Pole Position

Vettel:              2.07

Hamilton:         4.50

Webber:           5.00

Alonzo:             6.75

Button:             13.00

Massa:             34.00

Rosberg:          106.00

Schumacher:   151.00

Petrov:            261.00

Race Winner

Vettel:               2.88

Alonzo:             4.20

Hamilton:          3.50

Webber:           7.50

Button:              7.50

Massa:             26.00

Rosberg:          101.00

Schumacher:   151.00

Petrov:             251.00

Place

Vettel:              1.30

Alonzo:            1.50

Hamilton:         1.50

Webber:           2.10

Button:             2.10

Massa:             6.50

Rosberg:         17.00

Schumacher:   26.00

Petrov:             41.00

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast this weekend is afternoon rain on Friday, light rain on Saturday and cloudy on Sunday. The ambient air temperature is on top of 16 degrees, which is rather low.

Tyre and Race Strategy

This week Pirelli has brought the soft (yellow) and the medium (white) compound to the race.

Warming up the medium compound will be challenge for some teams as the temperature is low.

The previous time these two compounds were used was in German Grand Prix, the ambient temperature was low as well.

Most teams minimised the use of the medium compound during the race. Vettel and Massa chose to pit on the final lap for the medium compound.

The lap time difference between the soft and the medium compound is expected to be bigger than there was in Germany, which was 1.5 seconds per lap. Therefore we are likely to see some drivers switching to medium tyres in the final laps again.

A pit stop on this track takes around 23 seconds. This is the longest circuit on the calendar, the distance of each lap is 7 km, hence there are only 44 race laps.

The fuel consumption is high as 80% of that lap is spent on full throttle.

3.35kg of fuel is consumed on each lap.