F1 World Championship Betting Odds – Post Australian Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, April 3, 2011

The result of Vettel’s dominance at the Australian Grand Prix has changed the odds significantly. Prior to the Australian Grand Prix, Vettel’s odds to win 2011  driver’s championship was 3.50, it has now dropped to 1.78 on Sportsbet. Everyone else’s odds have relatively increased. Especially on both Mercedes drivers of Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg, and so did Felipe Massa.

There are reasons for this. Firstly Red Bull continues to show their superior package on the track since last year. Secondly the history of Formula One shows a great start is vital to win the championship. Being the first race of most seasons in the past 10 plus years, the probability shows Australian Grand Prix winner will eventually be the World Champion at the season’s ending.

Bookmakers’ odds tell us that Vettel will likely win back to back World Champion this year. At this stage I agree with the bookmakers, however I don’t think we have missed the golden opportunity to invest in this Formula One Betting yet.

It is only the first race of the season, Red Bull’s run will come to a halt at some stage. We will soon see McLaren or Ferrari winning some races, and I believe the Vettel’s odds will come up again.

Furthermore, we haven’t seen how Red Bull performs on the other tracks yet. Malaysia is a completely different track. If Red Bull doesn’t win in Malaysia, the odds will change significantly again.

The following are the odds for Formula One Betting after Australian Grand Prix 2011:

Driver’s Championship:

Vettel          1.78

Hamilton          4.50

Alonzo          6.00

Webber          10.00

Button          13.00

Schumacher          41.00

Rosberg          41.00

Massa          61.00

The odds for Constructor’s Championship have also changed. Other than the decrease in Red Bull’s odds, McLaren has overtaken Ferrari as the second favourite to win the constructor’s championship.

By focusing on development of simulator during winter testing, McLaren has demonstrated the superiority in developing their cars away from the track. With no in season testing, McLaren’s simulator back at McLaren Technology Centre will be their biggest asset to compete with Red Bull this year.

It is still too early to invest on any of these bets at the moment. There are still 18 more races to go and the odds will fluctuate as the season goes along.

The following is the Constructor’s Championship post to Australian Grand Prix:

Red Bull            1.50

McLaren          4.50

Ferrari              5.50

Mercedes         26.00

Renault            251.00

F1 Post Race Betting Analysis – Australian Grand Prix 2011

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

The sky finally opened up on the race day of the Australian Grand Prix weekend. It was a beautiful day to begin  the 2011 Formula One Championship.

It was also a great start to the 2011 Formula One Betting season. Sebastian Vettel won the race from pole position. He took off from the rest of the field right from the beginning and without much drama , he won the race!

And the winning bet:

• Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel  $1.73 (Sportsbet)

Although Vettel controlled the race right from the start to finish, McLaren’s come back after the disappointing winter testing was definitely a surprise. Hamilton was able to preserve the tyres better than Vettel during the race.

Webber’s poor tyre management ability at the Australian Grand Prix contributed to his disappointing 5th place finish. After his brilliant performance last year, it was hard to imagine he would qualify almost a second off Vettel’s pace and had an even slower pace during the race. Having seen Vettel’s pace throughout on the weekend, anything less than podium finish was a disappointment for Webber.

We definitely learnt a lot of lessons in this race, as the same tyres will be used in the next race of Malaysian Grand Prix. The races this year will no longer be one pit stops.

Some drivers pitted twice and some drivers pitted three times at the Australian GP. Hence as predicted by many experts, driver’s tyre management ability will be the key this year. In a couple of races time, we will perhaps be able to conclude which drivers are better at this and hence be the better drivers this year.

It was also a surprise to see Petrov finishing the race on podium, especially without the help of safety car. Other than Vettel, Petrov was probably the driver of the day. His third place finish makes people wonder….where would Kubica end up in the race if he was healthy?

Anyway, it was disappointing not to have both bets paying off this weekend, but overall it was a positive outcome in terms of betting ($43 profit!) and there were lessons learnt. Now we have better knowledge for the next race in Malaysia. Bring on Sepang!

F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Australian Grand Prix 2011

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

The wait was finally over as the Formula One cars got into action on Friday at Albert Park. It rained Thursday on the track, but thankfully it didn’t rain as bad on Friday. Only drips of rain during Practice Session 2.

In Practice Session 1 we saw Red Bull ending the session on top by a margin. This is a very good indication on where Red Bull is at the moment – a class of their own. Red Bull had the tendency of running heavier fuel load in practice sessions last year, however it was still a surprise to see McLaren ending Practice Session 2 on top.

The tyre degradation rate isn’t as bad as expected as there are not many high speed corners in Albert Park. If the track remains dry throughout the rest of the weekend, the race should be there again for Red Bull to lose.

Currently for Formula One betting, Red Bull to win the race is paying $1.83. Which is a good choice if the weather remains dry. This is perhaps the most sensible bet at this stage given the information we have so far.

The forecast shows there is a chance of light rain in on Saturday morning, but it should dry up as the day goes along. Qualifying won’t begin till late afternoon therefore it will likely to be a dry qualifying session.

Although it looks like one of the Red Bull car will win the race this weekend, it is still the first race for the unpredictable new Pirelli tyres at this stage. Caution needs to be taken as the weather is also unpredictable in Melbourne.

F1 Race Betting Analysis – Australian Grand Prix 2011

Sunday, March 27, 2011

The defending Formula One World Champion stunned the world. Setting the fastest all time lap record of 1:23.529 in qualifying at Albert Park. Beating Michael Schumacher’s record set in 2004!

So far this weekend has been dominated by Sebastian Vettel. Even his teammate Mark Webber seemed hopeless in matching his pace. Vettel is simply on a class of his own!

Vettel’s lap times in comparison to the other top drivers this week speak for themselves. Vettel is clearly on top of Webber and Red Bull is clearly on top of everyone else.

The weather forecast shows there will be light rain in the morning, but it should not rain in the afternoon. The race begins at 5pm local time, therefore we are likely to have a dry race. The air temperature is a few degrees warmer than the previous few days. Which is good news for Ferrari. They struggled to bring the tyres up to temperature in qualifying.

It is the first race of the season, hence the betting odds are still high. We must take advantage of this opportunity. The following are the bets that are worth investing:

• Race Winner – Sebastian Vettel  $1.73 (Sportsbet)
• Combination Podium Finish – Will Vettel and Webber finish on the podium? – Yes  $2.25 (Bet365)

These two bets are the absolute value for money investments. Looking at the form Vettel is in at the moment, the only way he won’t win the race is of reliability. Which already happened last year, hence I believe it is more than unlikely we will see it again this year.

As for the degradation of the Pirelli tyres during the race, we will see how many pit stops there will be in this first race of the year. But from what we saw in practices and qualifying, it is not as bad as expected. And Red Bull was able to do longer stints than McLaren. This is perhaps the only unpredictable factor to the race at the moment.

Due to the nature of street circuit, the chance of safety car being deployed during this race is high. It has been observed this weekend that it takes longer time to warm up the Pirelli tyres on track. This fact further guarantees Vettel’s race victory, as Red Bull has more down force than any other car. They are able to bring the tyre back to the optimum temperature quicker than others.

Furthermore, Red Bull will be using “Start Only” KERS. Which means they will not be vulnerable off the start. First lap turn 1 always determines the outcomes of the race. Red Bulls were vulnerable off the start in the previous years due to lack of power on the Renault Engine. Hopefully the “Start Only” KERS will solve their problem.

As for the second bet of having both Red Bulls on podium. Having said the above, it is not difficult to conclude that Webber will have a good result in his home race too. However if the safety cars comes out at the wrong time, he will likely to be the victim of it. Being the slower car on the race track, the team will have to sacrifice him for Vettel’s victory by lining him up behind Vettel at the pit stop if necessary.

If I invest $100 on Vettel to win the race at $1.73, I would only invest $30 on Vettel and Webber to finish on podium at $2.25. There are certainly more risk in the second bet, therefore it is better to invest money on Vettel’s victory bet where it is more likely to pay off.

Let’s also keep an eye on Jenson Button’s pace after safety car period. He has struggled to warm up the tyres after safety car before. Which he lost the lead in 2006 Australian GP, and was the main reason for his poor performances on the second half of his championship winning 2009 season.

It is the first race of the season. Other than Red Bull’s dominance there are still many aspects of the race to be learnt. This race has been a long time coming. Let’s sit back and enjoy, and hopefully we will make some money!

F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Australian Grand Prix 2011

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

The wait is finally over, the 2011 Formula One Championship will begin this weekend in Melbourne, Australia.

It has been one of the longest winter break based on the way last season ended in Abu Dhabi. One more world champion was crowned and one more world champion will be driving on the grid this season.

Thanks to the politics and the crisis in Bahrain, the winter break was made further longer. The progress of each team right now can only be judged by the latest offseason test in Barcelona.

The offseason tests have revealed where each team is at the moment. On the big fours teams, McLaren and Mercedes have some work to do. It looks like Red Bull and Ferrari will be fighting for the race victory in Albert Park – that is if the track is dry of course.

Much like last year, Red Bull seems to have the edge on qualifying at this stage. However the biggest variable in the first few races will definitely be the new Pirelli tyres. The tyre’s performance drop off rate is certainly more severe than the Bridgestones last year. How long the Pirellis will last on the streets of Albert Park – there is only one way to find out. Hopefully Friday and Saturday’s practice sessions will let us have a clearer picture.

Another interesting fact to see is the tyres’ degradation rate following another car. Hypothetically if one of the Red Bull cars starts on pole followed by a Ferrari, will the Ferrari be able to preserve its tyres behind the dirty air of the Red Bull?

We saw a solid evidence in last year’s Australian Grand Prix where Lewis Hamilton made one extra pit stop, but still struggled to overtake when he caught up to the cars in front of him which had not pitted for the new tyres.

Although this year moveable rear wing is introduced to improve overtaking, the testing results so far show they are not quite as effective as expected.

At the moment Red Bull looks like they will be the team to beat on qualifying again, Ferrari seems to be able to make the tyres last longer. Therefore right now it seems the safest bet on the market is for Red Bull to win pole position.

However the weather forecast show chances of shower on Friday and Saturday. So this is something all Formula One betters need to be aware of. Currently Vettel is the favourite for pole position at $2.50. Followed by Alonzo $4.33, then Webber $4.50. Massa and Hamilton both at $12.

Let’s see if pole position in this year’s championship will be as vital as previous years!