F1 World Championship Betting Odds – Post Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Winner Without Vettel:
Button (255 pts): 1.17
Alonzo (245 pts): 4.50
Webber (233 pts): 51.00
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F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix seems to be the place that produces unpredictable results.
In 2009, the first ever Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton was in brilliant form in qualifying. A race victory from pole position seemed at ease, but he had to retire from the lead due to mechanical failure.
In 2010, Fernando Alonzo started the race 3rd, and only needed to finish the race 4th in order to win the driver’s title. But Ferrari made an unusual strategic error that had Alonzo stuck behind a much slower Petrov. Alonzo finished 7th eventually.
This year Sebastian Vettel had the car on pole position, he already pulled out some gap after turn 1, but somehow there was a puncture on his right rear tyre. Vettel’s race only lasted one lap.
Vettel starting from pole position and winning the race seems to be the only thing that has happened in F1 this year. But Abu Dhabi continues to bring unpredictable results. His odds to win the race was as short as $1.62.
Hamilton’s odds to win the race were $4.33.
The overtaking on track has improved from last year with the aid of the double DRS zone.
Tyre degradation during the race was not a problem at all. Most driver used the two stops strategy, just as predicted before the weekend. Mark Webber is the only front runner who stopped three times. He successfully got ahead of Massa and finished 4th.
The final race of the 2011 F1 Championship will be Brazilian Grand Prix in two weeks time.
It is a track that consists of high speed corners. Vettel and Webber have each won the Brazilian Grand Prix in the past two years. However as Jenson Button won Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka this year, which has similar characteristic of high speed corners. It should once again be a tight battle between Red Bull and McLaren.
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Lewis Hamilton and McLaren looked very strong from all practice session to Qualifying Session 2, unfortunately the change in track temperature in Qualifying Session 3 did not allow Hamilton to get the most out of his MP4-26.
Sebastian Vettel took another pole position and equaled Nigel Mansell’s record of most pole positions (14 pole positions) in one season.
After Hamilton topped FP3, the bookmakers altered the odds on pole position. Vettel and Hamilton were equal favourites to win pole position at the odds of $2.10.
Where as prior to FP3 Vettel was $1.53 and Hamilton was $4.50.
Although there would be a much better payoff if Hamilton had won the pole position, the result on Saturday means the race will be easier to predict.
F1 Betting Strategy
Red Bull has many times proven they are faster in the first couple laps of the race. Therefore as long as Vettel maintains the lead and pulls up more than one second lead when the DRS is activated in lap 4, we will likely be seeing the repeats in results of most races this season – where Vettel just drives off to victory.
Vettel is so far unbeaten on the straight line dominant tracks since the summer break. He should have the victory in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at ease. Especially when the tyres will be durable during the race, and overtaking will likely be once again difficult.
Everything is clearly looking good for Vettel to claim the three-peat in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
There is quite a gap between the medium and the soft compounds of the tyres. However the tyre degradation will improve on the latter part of the race when the track temperature cools down.
The variable factor to the race is once again the change in track temperatures after the sun set. McLaren’s performance dropped as the track temperature cooled down in Q3, let’s see if there will be a same trend on Sunday’s race.
Recommended Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.62
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.62
Hamilton: 4.33
Button: 5.00
Webber: 15.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 251.00
Schumacher: 251.00
Podium Finish
Vettel: 1.17
Hamilton: 1.40
Button: 1.45
Webber: 2.10
Alonzo: 2.37
Massa: 15.00
Rosberg: 21.00
Schumacher: 26.00
Petrov: 251.00
Senna: 251.00
Kobayashi: 251.00
Sutil: 151.00
Di Resta: 151.00
Points Finish
Rosberg: 1.22
Schumacher: 1.22
Sutil: 1.62
Di Resta: 1.80
Alguersuari: 2.25
Buemi: 2.10
Petrov: 2.25
Senna: 2.75
Kobayashi: 2.63
Perez: 2.37
Barrichello: 6.50
Maldonado: 8.50
Kovalainen: 34.00
Trulli: 34.00
Glock: 67.00
Ricciardo: 67.00
D’Ambrosio: 67.00
Liuzzi: 67.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, November 12, 2011
McLaren dominated Friday’s practice sessions as Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonzo both crashed out on Free Practice 2.
McLaren looks very strong this weekend. It is highly likely that Hamilton will steal pole position off Red Bull once again this season.
Hamilton’s odds for pole position is 4.50, as opposed to Vettel’s 1.53.
The last time Hamilton pinched pole position off Vettel was in Korean GP. Vettel however overtook the position back in lap 2 of the race, and never gave the lead back to Hamilton.
Red Bull is usually the faster car on the first stint of the race, hence if Hamilton takes pole position in Abu Dhabi, Vettel still has a good chance on winning the race.
F1 Betting Strategy
The circuit in Korean Grand Prix has some similarities with the circuit in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Both have long straights and combine with slow and fast corners.
Looking at the results in Korea, other than the wet weather affected FP1, McLaren topped FP2 and FP3.
McLaren has so far topped FP1 and FP2 in Abu Dhabi, that is a good sign for McLaren to take their second pole position of the year.
Friday’s tyre evaluations shows tyre degradation during the race will not be too bad, the tyres will last even longer after the sun sets and the track temperature lowers. It is predicted that most teams will stop twice during the race.
This track has not been overtaking friendly so far, we will see whether DRS will help to improve the situation. There were not many overtaking actions in the long straight of Indian Grand Prix two weeks ago. And according to Jenson Button, overtaking won’t be easy during the race.
Looking at the results so far on the weekend, it is better to place money on Hamilton to win pole position than Vettel. Given Hamilton’s odds is as long as 4.50!
The race result will highly depend on the qualifying result.
Recommended Bet
- Pole Position – Hamilton 4.50
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.83
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.53
Hamilton: 4.50
Button: 8.50
Webber: 11.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.83
Hamilton: 5.00
Button: 5.50
Webber: 10.00
Alonzo: 10.50
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.57
Hamilton: 1.57
Alonzo: 2.00
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Friday, November 11, 2011
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is one of the newest venues on the Formula One calendar. Other than the cars driving through the luxurious hotel building and the marina, one aspect that sets this race apart from the rest is that the race begins in the day and ends at night. This is makes a spectacular scene, but it makes engineers’ jobs more difficult.
Last year this race made a spectacular finish to the season, as Alonzo and Ferrari’s strategic error had them stuck behind Renault’s Petrov for the entire race, and hence cost them the title. (see F1 Post Race Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2010)
Vettel has won the previous two races in Korea and India. He is still by far the favourite to win pole position and the race this weekend.
This circuit has the combination of high speed straight lines, high speed corners and low speed corners. It has a bit of everything, hence it is a great challenge for the teams to get the set ups right.
The weather looks fantastic for racing. The forecast for the weekend is sunny, and ambient temperature will be around 28 degrees Celsius.
This weekend Pirelli has brought the soft (yellow) and the medium (white) tyres.
F1 Betting Strategy
There will be a bit more variables in predicting the pole position this weekend.
Usually it is obvious to tell which is the faster qualifying car by the result of Free Practice 3, as most teams will be running qualifying simulations. However as the sun sets around the time of qualifying, the track temperature will drop towards the end of qualifying. Which is the most crucial part – Q3!
There has only been two races held in Abu Dhabi so far. Sebastian Vettel is the only winner.
Lewis Hamilton had the pole position in 2009 and looked very promising to win the race, but had to retire the race from the lead due to a problem with the brake.
The best strategy right now is to hold onto the bets and look at the result of Free Practice 2. Free Practice 2 is held at the same time as qualifying and the race, hence the data there will be more relevant to the qualifying and the race.
Qualifying should still be a competition between Vettel and Hamilton, but the team that can adapt to the change in track temperature will be the winner on Saturday.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.53
Hamilton: 5.50
Webber: 8.00
Button: 8.00
Alonzo: 12.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.72
Button: 5.00
Hamilton: 6.00
Webber: 8.50
Alonzo: 10.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.17
Button: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.67
Alonzo: 1.91
Webber: 1.91
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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- F1 2012 Season Trend – Post Spanish Grand Prix
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