Kelly Criterion in Formula One Betting
Friday, February 17, 2012
In the recent years, the creations of online sports betting websites have been booming. It is evident that there is increase of gambling activities in our society, whether it is just an one off instance, or regular commitments.
However, the society in general has negative impressions on gambling. People believe gambling is a path that leads to ruin. But yet the gaming industry is expanding at a rapid pace, especially throughout the internet.
The negative impression on gambling is that the adrenaline rush from it can become an addiction. The casino and the bookmakers generate profit base on probability. And because the odds are always on the dealer’s side, players are more likely to lose money.
But imagine if there is a proven mathematic formula that ensures players to make money.
Kelly Criterion is a scientific formula developed by a mathematician – John Kelly in the 1950s. The formula determines the optimal wager for betting, and it is proven that by following this strategy on a long term basis, it is almost certain to profit from gambling.
Kelly Criterion is as shown below. The formula takes account of the odds offered by the bookmaker, and the probabilities of winning and losing the bets. The result of the formula is the fraction of the player’s entire bank roll (player’s defined budget) – which then determines the optimal wager for the bet.
f* stands for the fraction of bank roll to wager
b stands for the odds offered by the bookmaker in decimals
p is the probability of winning in decimals
q is the probability of losing, which is the opposite of p. Hence q = 1- p
The odds b are always given by the bookmaker. The variable factor in the formula is p – the probability of winning.
P can be variable depending on the individual’s personal opinion, For example, a loyal supporter of Lewis Hamilton is more likely to have a biased opinion towards Lewis Hamilton or Team McLare winning the race. Hence the value of p would be different to a Sebastian Vettel supporter.
By substituting all the factors into the formula, the fraction of bankroll to wager can be determined.
At the start of each bet, the bankroll has to be adjusted according to the result of the previous bet.
For example, if the initial bankroll is $100, the calculated fraction of bankroll from Kelly Criterion is 0.6, and the odds for the bet is $1.50.
Then the wager for the bet is $100 x 0.6 = $60
If it turns out to be a winning bet, then the player’s bankroll after the first bet will be $40 + $60 x 1.50 = $130.
If the second bet has the same odds, then the wager for the second bet is $130 x 0.6 = $78.
And the process continues.
Vice versa, if the first bet turns out to be a loss, then the remaining bankroll after the first bet would be $40. Then the wager for the second bet is $40 x 0.6 = $24.
In order to improve the chance of winning bets, the player must make judgments of the event from a neutral perspective, and have as much information about the about as possible, ie. Track condition, weather and tyre compounds. These factors all improve the player’s judgement on p – the probability of winning. Hence it affects the accuracy to the calculation.
It is said by following this formula on a long term basis, the player can make profit from gambling. Given every single bet is placed the same way.
If it is proven that it works, why doesn’t everyone use it?
It takes discipline to follow Kelly Criterion. The system only works if every single bet is placed in the same way. This has been the challenge for most people who have ever attempted such system.
Although the formula shows it is impossible for the player to lose all his/her bank roll, there is always a minimum bet set by the bookmakers. Hence if the calculated fraction of the bank roll falls below the minimum bet limit set by the bookmakers, the formula can no longer be followed. Or it requires the player to raise the defined budget.
The system involves higher wager if the player is on a roll. After a winning streak, the player risks losing more. The calculated wager can exceed the psychological threshold of the player. Hence prompts the player to give up on following the process.
Furthermore, there is no end to the betting process. The formula assumes the player will continue on betting with infinite amount of bank roll, when the bookmakers all have betting ceilings.
Some people argue it is better to bet with a third or half as much as suggested by Kelly Criterion, as it reduces the massive fluctuation of wager. But at the end of the day it is up to each individual. Everybody has different mental threshold to the acceptable wager in betting. This could depend on the personal income, culture or personality.
Each individual has his/her own likings of how he/she likes to bet. Some people like to bet on long odds in order to obtain higher profit, some people like to bet on short odds for higher probability of the bet being paid off.
It does not matter on each individual’s betting habbit, scientific research in Kelly Criterion has proven that by sticking with the formula, the players are almost certain to profit from gambling.
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F1 Post Race Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
The 2011 Brazilian Grand Prix turned out to be a dry race, but the winner was a surprise.
Vettel for the second race in a row suffered mechanical failure. The previous race in Abu Dhabi it was a puncture in the right rear tyre that forced him to retire. This time it was a problem with the gearbox.
Looking at Mark Webber’s performance this year, it was difficult to imagine he would win a race with consistent poor results from the race starts. However Webber pulled himself together on this final race of the year. He maintained second position after the race start, and just when Vettel was forced to slow down due to gearbox problem, Webber was able to inherit Vettel’s position of race leader.
It would have been just another Vettel victory had there been no issue with his gearbox, nevertheless Webber drove brilliantly and finally got himself the first win in the 2011 F1 season.
Mark Webber’s odds to win the race after qualifying were $6.00.
Jenson Button did not have the pace to challenge the Red Bulls in the first stint of the race. He struggled with the new version of Pirelli soft tyres, which is more durable, but perhaps less grip.
Button would have been in a better position to challenge the Red Bulls had there been rain, however it was not the case in Brazilian Grand Prix this year.
The 2011 F1 season is over, the winter break this time is a few weeks shorter than the previous years. That is good news to F1 fans.
The 2012 F1 season will start in Melbourne, Australia on 18th of March. Which is two weeks earlier than the usual time in order to accommodate the 20 races championship.
There will be more races than ever next year, and hopefully there will be more competitions on the championship!
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
The threat of wet weather was there, but it turned out to be a dry qualifying session. As the result, Sebastian Vettel took another pole position and set an all time F1 record of 15 pole positions in one season.
Pirelli’s soft tyre this weekend is said to be more durable than its previous version. Hence there is less likelihood of Vettel’s pace dropping off half way through the race, like he did in Japan.
The threat of wet weather is still there, hence the race will once again be interesting.
Jenson Button has won two of the three wet races this season. Once it starts to rain, or when a wet track is drying up, Button’s race pace will be on a class of his own. His strategy and lap times will be monitored closely by every team.
F1 Betting Strategy
In the dry condition, McLaren should be able to give Red Bull a run for their money. But since it is a Red Bull front row start, there is more chance of Vettel winning another race. Vettel is paying $1.67 to win the race, and Button is paying as far as $5.50.
However the threat of wet weather will not go away. The safest way to bet in wet weather condition is not to bet at all, but if any bet is to be placed, then it has got to be Button to win the race.
It has been said Button is exceptionally brilliant in changeable weather conditions, he may not be as quick as other elite drivers such as Hamilton, Vettel and Alonzo in dry conditions, but his record of victories in wet races makes him stands out from the rest.
It is going to be a long race if it rains, but it surely will not be a boring race to watch!
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $5.50
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.67
Button: 5.50
Webber: 6.00
Hamilton: 8.00
Alonzo: 15.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 81.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Podium
Vettel: 1.17
Button: 1.62
Webber: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.72
Alonzo: 2.20
Massa: 11.00
Rosberg: 13.00
Schumacher: 26.00
Points Finish
Sutil: 1.50
Di Resta: 1.80
Senna: 2.10
Alguersuari: 2.63
Petrov: 2.75
Kobayashi: 2.75
Buemi: 2.75
Barrichello: 3.00
Perez: 3.25
Maldonado: 7.00
Trulli: 34.00
Kovalainen: 34.00
D’Ambrosio: 51.00
Ricciardo: 51.00
Liuzzi: 51.00
Glock: 51.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Friday’s practice times reveals it is close between McLaren and Red Bull. However it is very likely that weather will once again play a part in qualifying.
Last year’s qualifying result was affected by wet weather. It was then Williams driver Nico Hulkenburg who took pole position. The front runners failed to set the fastest time of Q3 at the right time, hence there was a surprising result to qualifying!
Hulkenburg lost his race lead right into turn 1 on the first lap.
On a dry condition, Vettel should once again claim pole position. His odds are currently $1.67. Which is slightly longer than his usual odds before qualifying.
However as mentioned, weather will highly likely play its part in qualifying, hence it is better to keep the hands off the bets at this stage.
F1 Betting Strategy
Jenson Button is definitely the guy to put the money on whenever there is change in weather conditions during the race.
Two of his three victories this season have come from wet races, and six of his 12 F1 career victories have come from wet races.
Such record in wet condition speaks for itself.
Qualifying results will not be as important if the race turns out to be wet.
Given the fact that weather in Sau Paulo is difficult to predict. Any bets placed this weekend will be at higher risk than usual.
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $6.00
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.67
Hamilton: 3.50
Webber: 9.00
Button: 10.00
Alonzo: 21.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 201.00
Schumacher: 201.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.00
Hamilton: 4.00
Button: 6.00
Webber: 8.50
Alonzo: 11.00
Massa: 51.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Hamilton: 1.45
Button: 1.62
Webber: 1.72
Alonzo: 2.20
Massa: 11.00
Rosberg: 26.00
Schumacher: 26.00
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F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
The 2011 Formula One season is coming to an end this weekend in Brazil. It has been three races since Vettel clinched the 2011 title, but there is still one race remaining on the calendar.
After an exciting four ways battle in 2010 season, it is hard to believe 2011 would turn out to be Sebastian Vettel’s one man show.
Brazilian Grand Prix has previously held some epic grand finales, such as in 2007 and 2008, but certainly it won’t be as exciting this year.
Vettel had an unfortunate DNF at the opening lap of Abu Dhabi Grand Prix two weeks ago, but fortunately it happened after he had clinched the title. That is a complete contrast to his 2010 campaign.
Without any surprise, Vettel is still bookmaker’s favourite to win pole position and the race. His odds for pole position is $1.62, and to win the race is $1.83.
The weather is Brazil is unpredictable. There are footages of chaos caused by wet weather everywhere on YouTube in Brazilian GP.
F1 Betting Strategy
Pirelli has brought the soft (yellow) and medium (white) compounds of tyres to Brazilian GP.
However the soft compound is a revised version. It is said to be more durable during the race. It will be interesting to see its performance in practice and qualifying. Most of times this season when Pirelli introduces a new compound of tyres, they have received criticisms from drivers and engineers.
Due to the factors of track, variable weather and tyres, putting bet on Vettel to win the race has higher risks than other races this season.
Firstly Vettel’s tyre performance suffered more degradation than Button on a much similar styled high speed track on Japanese Grand Prix three races ago, hence Vettel did not win the race from pole position.
Secondly the variable weather in Sau Paolo, Brazil means there is a very good chance of the race being held at wet condition. Looking at the record this season, Jenson Button is the way to go whenever the race is affected by rain.
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $6.50
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.62
Hamilton: 4.20
Webber: 8.00
Button: 10.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 201.00
Schumacher: 201.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.83
Button: 6.50
Hamilton: 4.33
Webber: 9.00
Alonzo: 9.00
Massa: 56.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.50
Alonzo: 1.91
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 26.00
Schumacher: 26.00
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F1 World Championship Betting Odds – Post Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Winner Without Vettel:
Button (255 pts): 1.17
Alonzo (245 pts): 4.50
Webber (233 pts): 51.00
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F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix seems to be the place that produces unpredictable results.
In 2009, the first ever Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton was in brilliant form in qualifying. A race victory from pole position seemed at ease, but he had to retire from the lead due to mechanical failure.
In 2010, Fernando Alonzo started the race 3rd, and only needed to finish the race 4th in order to win the driver’s title. But Ferrari made an unusual strategic error that had Alonzo stuck behind a much slower Petrov. Alonzo finished 7th eventually.
This year Sebastian Vettel had the car on pole position, he already pulled out some gap after turn 1, but somehow there was a puncture on his right rear tyre. Vettel’s race only lasted one lap.
Vettel starting from pole position and winning the race seems to be the only thing that has happened in F1 this year. But Abu Dhabi continues to bring unpredictable results. His odds to win the race was as short as $1.62.
Hamilton’s odds to win the race were $4.33.
The overtaking on track has improved from last year with the aid of the double DRS zone.
Tyre degradation during the race was not a problem at all. Most driver used the two stops strategy, just as predicted before the weekend. Mark Webber is the only front runner who stopped three times. He successfully got ahead of Massa and finished 4th.
The final race of the 2011 F1 Championship will be Brazilian Grand Prix in two weeks time.
It is a track that consists of high speed corners. Vettel and Webber have each won the Brazilian Grand Prix in the past two years. However as Jenson Button won Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka this year, which has similar characteristic of high speed corners. It should once again be a tight battle between Red Bull and McLaren.
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Lewis Hamilton and McLaren looked very strong from all practice session to Qualifying Session 2, unfortunately the change in track temperature in Qualifying Session 3 did not allow Hamilton to get the most out of his MP4-26.
Sebastian Vettel took another pole position and equaled Nigel Mansell’s record of most pole positions (14 pole positions) in one season.
After Hamilton topped FP3, the bookmakers altered the odds on pole position. Vettel and Hamilton were equal favourites to win pole position at the odds of $2.10.
Where as prior to FP3 Vettel was $1.53 and Hamilton was $4.50.
Although there would be a much better payoff if Hamilton had won the pole position, the result on Saturday means the race will be easier to predict.
F1 Betting Strategy
Red Bull has many times proven they are faster in the first couple laps of the race. Therefore as long as Vettel maintains the lead and pulls up more than one second lead when the DRS is activated in lap 4, we will likely be seeing the repeats in results of most races this season – where Vettel just drives off to victory.
Vettel is so far unbeaten on the straight line dominant tracks since the summer break. He should have the victory in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at ease. Especially when the tyres will be durable during the race, and overtaking will likely be once again difficult.
Everything is clearly looking good for Vettel to claim the three-peat in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
There is quite a gap between the medium and the soft compounds of the tyres. However the tyre degradation will improve on the latter part of the race when the track temperature cools down.
The variable factor to the race is once again the change in track temperatures after the sun set. McLaren’s performance dropped as the track temperature cooled down in Q3, let’s see if there will be a same trend on Sunday’s race.
Recommended Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.62
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.62
Hamilton: 4.33
Button: 5.00
Webber: 15.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 251.00
Schumacher: 251.00
Podium Finish
Vettel: 1.17
Hamilton: 1.40
Button: 1.45
Webber: 2.10
Alonzo: 2.37
Massa: 15.00
Rosberg: 21.00
Schumacher: 26.00
Petrov: 251.00
Senna: 251.00
Kobayashi: 251.00
Sutil: 151.00
Di Resta: 151.00
Points Finish
Rosberg: 1.22
Schumacher: 1.22
Sutil: 1.62
Di Resta: 1.80
Alguersuari: 2.25
Buemi: 2.10
Petrov: 2.25
Senna: 2.75
Kobayashi: 2.63
Perez: 2.37
Barrichello: 6.50
Maldonado: 8.50
Kovalainen: 34.00
Trulli: 34.00
Glock: 67.00
Ricciardo: 67.00
D’Ambrosio: 67.00
Liuzzi: 67.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, November 12, 2011
McLaren dominated Friday’s practice sessions as Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonzo both crashed out on Free Practice 2.
McLaren looks very strong this weekend. It is highly likely that Hamilton will steal pole position off Red Bull once again this season.
Hamilton’s odds for pole position is 4.50, as opposed to Vettel’s 1.53.
The last time Hamilton pinched pole position off Vettel was in Korean GP. Vettel however overtook the position back in lap 2 of the race, and never gave the lead back to Hamilton.
Red Bull is usually the faster car on the first stint of the race, hence if Hamilton takes pole position in Abu Dhabi, Vettel still has a good chance on winning the race.
F1 Betting Strategy
The circuit in Korean Grand Prix has some similarities with the circuit in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Both have long straights and combine with slow and fast corners.
Looking at the results in Korea, other than the wet weather affected FP1, McLaren topped FP2 and FP3.
McLaren has so far topped FP1 and FP2 in Abu Dhabi, that is a good sign for McLaren to take their second pole position of the year.
Friday’s tyre evaluations shows tyre degradation during the race will not be too bad, the tyres will last even longer after the sun sets and the track temperature lowers. It is predicted that most teams will stop twice during the race.
This track has not been overtaking friendly so far, we will see whether DRS will help to improve the situation. There were not many overtaking actions in the long straight of Indian Grand Prix two weeks ago. And according to Jenson Button, overtaking won’t be easy during the race.
Looking at the results so far on the weekend, it is better to place money on Hamilton to win pole position than Vettel. Given Hamilton’s odds is as long as 4.50!
The race result will highly depend on the qualifying result.
Recommended Bet
- Pole Position – Hamilton 4.50
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.83
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.53
Hamilton: 4.50
Button: 8.50
Webber: 11.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.83
Hamilton: 5.00
Button: 5.50
Webber: 10.00
Alonzo: 10.50
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.57
Hamilton: 1.57
Alonzo: 2.00
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Friday, November 11, 2011
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is one of the newest venues on the Formula One calendar. Other than the cars driving through the luxurious hotel building and the marina, one aspect that sets this race apart from the rest is that the race begins in the day and ends at night. This is makes a spectacular scene, but it makes engineers’ jobs more difficult.
Last year this race made a spectacular finish to the season, as Alonzo and Ferrari’s strategic error had them stuck behind Renault’s Petrov for the entire race, and hence cost them the title. (see F1 Post Race Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2010)
Vettel has won the previous two races in Korea and India. He is still by far the favourite to win pole position and the race this weekend.
This circuit has the combination of high speed straight lines, high speed corners and low speed corners. It has a bit of everything, hence it is a great challenge for the teams to get the set ups right.
The weather looks fantastic for racing. The forecast for the weekend is sunny, and ambient temperature will be around 28 degrees Celsius.
This weekend Pirelli has brought the soft (yellow) and the medium (white) tyres.
F1 Betting Strategy
There will be a bit more variables in predicting the pole position this weekend.
Usually it is obvious to tell which is the faster qualifying car by the result of Free Practice 3, as most teams will be running qualifying simulations. However as the sun sets around the time of qualifying, the track temperature will drop towards the end of qualifying. Which is the most crucial part – Q3!
There has only been two races held in Abu Dhabi so far. Sebastian Vettel is the only winner.
Lewis Hamilton had the pole position in 2009 and looked very promising to win the race, but had to retire the race from the lead due to a problem with the brake.
The best strategy right now is to hold onto the bets and look at the result of Free Practice 2. Free Practice 2 is held at the same time as qualifying and the race, hence the data there will be more relevant to the qualifying and the race.
Qualifying should still be a competition between Vettel and Hamilton, but the team that can adapt to the change in track temperature will be the winner on Saturday.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.53
Hamilton: 5.50
Webber: 8.00
Button: 8.00
Alonzo: 12.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.72
Button: 5.00
Hamilton: 6.00
Webber: 8.50
Alonzo: 10.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.17
Button: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.67
Alonzo: 1.91
Webber: 1.91
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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F1 World Championship Betting Odds – Post Indian Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 6, 2011
The second place on the driver’s title race has become even clearer on Jenson Button’s second place finish in Indian Grand Prix.
Webber’s race starts have gotten better recently, but still continues to lose positions.
Alonzo continues to get the most out of the disappointing Ferrari F150, but at least he is not in a collision course like Hamilton.
Winner Without Vettel:
Button (240 pts) 1.22
Alonzo (227 pts) 6.00
Webber (221 pts) 8.00
Hamilton (202 pts) 41.00
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F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Indian Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, October 30, 2011
The first ever Formula One Indian Grand Prix had a great build up, there were two Indian drivers out on the track on Friday practice sessions, and the circuit layout looked fantastic. But the race produced a rather predictable outcome.
Sebastian Vettel topped the Saturday morning practice session, which showed he would be the man to beat in qualifying.
He then snatched another pole position in qualifying, then won the race from there.
The recommended bet before the race was:
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.57
Vettel’s teammate Mark Webber again was not able to match the pace of the sister Red Bull car. He started the race second, but finished fourth.
The talk of Red Bull helping Webber to win this race could never have happened (even if Webber wanted it), as Webber was never running close behind Vettel.
Vettel once again showed Red Bull’s brilliant pace at the first few laps. He was able to pull away from the second placed Jenson Button.
Button was never able to be close enough to use his DRS.
Webber on the other hand was able to stick behind Button and use the DRS at the first stint, but unfortunately he was unable to overtake.
Webber then lost another position in the second pit stop to Alonzo.
The track surface improved quite a lot as the race went on. It turned out to be a two stops race.
Red Bull once again won the race in a straight-line dominant track. The remaining two races are Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and Brazilian Grand Prix.
Abu Dhabi has one of the longest straights in the F1 Championship; Brazil on the other side is a track that has multiple high speed corners.
Judging by the recent results, Vettel is more likely to win again in Abu Dhabi, and Brazil will be more McLaren friendly.
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Indian Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, October 29, 2011
As Sebastian Vettel topped FP3, it was once again clear that he was going to take the pole position.
Although Lewis Hamilton qualified second, he will start the race fifth because of the penalty for speeding under yellow flag during FP1.
It looks like Vettel can cruise to victory without much pressure.
Webber is starting on the dirty side of the track, and Alonzo’s Ferrari just does not have the pace to challenge Red Bull for victory.
Vettel, Webber and Alonzo’s odds for winning the race are $1.57, $5.00 and $8.00 respectively.
The weather will still stay stable of sunny and the maximum of 30 degrees Celsius ambient temperature.
F1 Betting Strategy
The track surface is dusty on the off racing lines. This means overtaking will be difficult during the race.
On any other day this would be a certain victory for Vettel. But the story of Red Bull willing to help Webber winning this race will bring some variable factors to this race.
It all depends on Mark Webber’s position in the second half of the race. If he is running second and not too far behind Vettel, Red Bull will likely strategically put Vettel into traffic after a pit stop, and let Webber overtake Vettel in the pit stop.
However if Webber once again has a poor start and falls behind Alonzo or any of the McLaren driver, then Red Bull is not going to ask Vettel to slow down and risk the race win for another team.
All and all Vettel’s Red Bull should be the fastest car during the race. But Red Bull’s race strategy decisions will be orbiting around Webber’s track position.
Recommended Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.57
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Webber 5.00
Indian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.57
Webber: 5.00
Alonzo: 8.00
Button: 10.00
Hamilton: 10.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 201.00
Podium Finish
Vettel: 1.14
Button: 1.83
Webber: 1.57
Alonzo: 1.67
Hamilton: 2.00
Massa: 13.00
Rosberg: 19.00
Schumacher: 34.00
Petrov: 201.00
Senna: 151.00
Kobayashi: 251.00
Sutil: 151.00
Di Resta: 201.00
Points Finish
Rosberg: 1.22
Schumacher: 1.53
Sutil: 1.57
Alguersuari: 1.83
Buemi: 1.83
Di Resta: 2.00
Petrov: 2.10
Senna: 2.50
Kobayashi: 3.10
Perez: 4.00
Barrichello: 5.00
Maldonado: 5.00
Kovalainen: 34.00
Trulli: 34.00
Glock: 51.00
Ricciardo: 51.00
D’Ambrosio: 51.00
Karthikeyan: 51.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Indian Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, October 29, 2011
As Formula One cars for the first time rolled onto the tarmac of the Buddh International Circuit, already the first practice session was interrupted by a dog running on the race track.
There were more actions on Friday practice sessions than usual, as Pirelli allocated each car one more set of tyres for evaluation.
The odds on the betting market have not changed much.
They once again tell Vettel and Hamilton will be the only two drivers competing for pole position, and Vettel is still the clear favourite by a certain distance.
Furthermore Hamilton will have a three places grid penalty on Sunday’s race as he set his fastest lap time during FP1.
Weather forecast still remains the same. Sunny with ambient temperature of around 31 degrees Celsius.
F1 Betting Strategy
As it is a new circuit, the betting strategy has to be more conservative this weekend.
On top of that, since the championship is over, teams are more likely to use the remaining races as testing sessions for the development of the 2012 cars.
Judging by the odds and the recent results on the race tracks that consist of long straights, Red Bull has the advantage in the race.
However as mentioned earlier, the championship is over. There could be a bit more variable factors to the race.
FP3 will once again reveal whether Vettel or Hamilton has the upperhand in qualifying speed.
As Hamilton will start the race no better than the fourth position, he is unlikely to be a race win contender this weekend.
The only threats to Vettel’s victory are now Button and Webber.
Furthermore, as the team order rules are less strict this season. There is a strong possibility of team order this weekend on the Red Bull camp in order to help Webber claiming his first victory of the season. But it will only happen if Webber is running second to Vettel during the race.
Red Bull might have an extra pit stop for Vettel in that case, or pull him directly into traffic after a pit stop.
We will have to see what the starting grid is like to analyse the possible scenarios during the race.
Indian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.80
Hamilton: 3.75
Button: 9.50
Webber: 9.50
Alonzo: 13.00
Massa: 26.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.83
Button: 5.50
Webber: 6.00
Hamilton: 7.50
Alonzo: 9.50
Massa: 34.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.22
Button: 1.53
Hamilton: 1.91
Alonzo: 1.91
Webber: 1.72
Massa: 7.50
Rosberg: 19.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Indian Grand Prix 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Indian Grand Prix is a brand new venue to Formula One .
In the recent years there has been increase of Indian involvements in Formula One. From the first ever Indian driver – Narain Karthikeyan in 2005, to the first Indian owned F1 team – Force India in 2008.
Formula One saw the great potential business opportunities in India, and finally there is going to be an Indian Grand Prix in New Delhi this weekend.
The construction of the track has only recently been completed. Hence the engineers have had little time to understand the track.
This brings a certain level of risks in betting on this weekend’s Indian Grand Prix.
The bookmakers still favour Vettel to win pole position at the odds of 1.72.
Hamilton’s odds to win pole position are as long as 4.00, despite having the most recent pole position in Korean Grand Prix.
The weather forecast suggests it will be sunny throughout the weekend. The ambient temperature will be as high as 31 degrees Celsius.
This could be the challenge to the tyres.
F1 Betting Strategy
This weekend Pirelli has brought the soft compound and the hard compound. This is the most commonly used tyre combination in this year’s championship.
Although the track surface is unknown, the circuit layout resembles some other tracks in the championship.
The track layout consists of mainly straights and slow corners. These are the two areas Red Bull have been superior in the recent races.
Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull have won on all the straight line dominant tracks after the summer break. These include Spa, Monza and Korea.
Indian Grand Prix is another straight line dominant track. From the results of the recent races, this race could again fall into Vettel and Red Bull’s hands.
Although the simulators have shown what it is like to be driving around in this Buddh International Circuit, the race simulator engineers have yet input the track surface conditions to the simulator. This makes Friday practice sessions crucial.
There are too many unknowns at this stage, but the features on this track so far look more Red Bull friendly than McLaren.
Indian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.72
Hamilton: 4.00
Webber: 7.00
Button: 7.00
Alonzo: 15.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.10
Button: 4.50
Hamilton: 4.50
Webber: 6.50
Alonzo: 8.50
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.25
Button: 1.57
Hamilton: 1.53
Alonzo: 2.00
Webber: 1.91
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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F1 World Championship Betting Odds – Post Korean Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, October 23, 2011
There are only three races remaining to the 2011 F1 World Championship. Jenson Button’s late season charge has ensured him to be bookmaker’s favourite driver to finish second on the driver’s standing.
Meanwhile Alonzo and Webber have swapped positions.
Despite Hamilton’s second place finish in Korea, he still remains the least likely driver to be the winner without Vettel.
Winner Without Vettel:
Button (222 pts) 1.57
Alonzo (212 pts) 6.00
Webber (209 pts) 5.50
Hamilton (196 pts) 7.50
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F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Korean Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Lewis Hamilton started the race from pole position, but his race lead was short lived.
Vettel used the slipstream of Hamilton’s car in lap 2, and without the use of DRS, Vettel overtook Hamilton in turn 3, and never fell behind since.
Vettel’s odds to win the race prior to the race were 3.00.
Three to four stops were expected before the race, but it turned out to be a two stops race.
There were a few turning points to the race results.
The first turning point was obviously Vettel’s overtaking move on Hamilton in lap 2, turn 3.
As we saw how difficult it was for Webber to overtake Hamilton in the second half of the race. Vettel’s early race move got him the eventual race victory.
The second turning point was the safety car period. This stretched the lives of the supersoft tyres that were used by the front runners at the time. This meant one less pit stop was required, and hence less strategy options during the race.
The final bit that ruined Hamilton’s chance at victory was the battle between Hamilton and Webber for the second place. Hamilton was close to one second behind Vettel before the second pit stop. But the battle with Webber made him lose about 10 seconds.
Hamilton finished the race 12 seconds behind Vettel.
The outcomes of the races ever since Belgium Grand Prix have been a complete contrast to what most people would have guessed.
Red Bull used to be untouchable on the tracks with high speed corners, and McLaren used to have much more advantages in straight line dominant tracks.
However Red Bull has won all straight line dominant tracks such as Spa, Monza and Korea, and McLaren has won in Suzuka. These results are completely opposite to what the experts would have expected early this season.
The next race Indian Grand Prix is two weeks away. The track again consists of long straights.
After seeing the results on the second half of the season, the Indian Grand Prix circuit looks to be more Red Bull friendly.
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Korean Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, October 15, 2011
After 15 grand prix starts on the 2011 Formula One World Championship, there is finally going to be a non Red Bull car that starts the race from pole position at Korean Grand Prix.
The last time Red Bull did not start the race from pole position was 2010 Singapore Grand Prix.
Lewis Hamilton snapped Red Bull’s one year long pole position streak.
Hamilton looked like a completely different driver to the one we have seen in the past few races. He driving was precise and faultless during qualifying of Korean Grand Prix.
This shows McLaren has finally caught up with Red Bull. Only it was too late to make any differences to the outcome of the championship.
The weather forecast looks good for the race. It will be a sunny day with ambient temperature on top of about 24 degrees Celsius.
F1 Betting Strategy
Judging from the recent forms, Hamilton and Button look like they will have better race pace than Vettel.
Button is on top of his form after winning the previous race in Japan. But he is starting from third, which means he will likely be busy fighting against Vettel in the first stint of the race.
Red Bull is not very fast when trailing behind the wake of another car.
Therefore as long as Hamilton keeps Vettel behind his back, he should have Vettel covered for the race.
Tyre wear will be the major concern during the race. As the supersoft tyres is usually not suitable for a race track like this.
Hamilton should win the race if he keeps the lead after the start and look after his tyres reasonably during the race. The leading car usually has better tyre management than the cars following behind.
Button’s ability to look after his tyres will be a bigger threat to Hamilton’s race victory than Vettel.
Recommended Bet
- Race Winner – Hamilton 2.37
Weather Forecast
It is going to be a sunny Sunday on the sky of Suzuka. The ambient temperature will still be on top of 23 degrees Celsius.
Korean Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Hamilton: 2.37
Vettel: 3.00
Button: 4.00
Webber: 17.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 51.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 101.00
Podium Finish
Hamilton: 1.33
Vettel: 1.33
Button: 1.45
Webber: 2.20
Alonzo: 2.50
Massa: 6.50
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 41.00
Petrov: 51.00
Senna: 101.00
Kobayashi: 201.00
Sutil: 101.00
Di Resta: 101.00
Points Finish
Rosberg: 1.25
Schumacher: 1.50
Senna: 2.75
Kobayashi: 2.37
Sutil: 1.83
Alguersuari: 2.10
Buemi: 2.37
Di Resta: 1.83
Perez: 2.37
Petrov: 1.67
Barrichello: 5.00
Maldonado: 4.50
Kovalainen: 34.00
Trulli: 34.00
Glock: 67.00
Ricciardo: 67.00
D’Ambrosio: 67.00
Liuzzi: 67.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Korean Grand Prix 2011
Friday, October 14, 2011
As it turned out, it was yet another raining day in Yeongam, Korea. Michael Schumacher topped FP1 and Hamilton topped FP2.
Qualifying and the race will likely be in dry conditions. So this makes the result of Friday practice sessions somewhat irrelevant.
However it is no doubt that Hamilton has a chance to stop Red Bull’s pole position streak this weekend.
The weather forecast shows cloudy on Saturday and sunny on Sunday.
F1 Betting Strategy
DRS will play a significant role in qualifying and race of Korean Grand Prix. Especially when this track has the longest straight of all circuits on the championship.
McLaren’s new DRS enhanced rear wing seems to have brought them the edge over Red Bull in Japanese Grand Prix last week.
Betting on Hamilton to qualify on pole position seems to be a good choice this week.
Hamilton has consistently qualified better than his fellow teammate Button this year, despite several poor performances in the races. Hamilton would have still out-qualified Button had he crossed the start-finish line in time at Suzuka last week.
And on top of that, Hamilton’s odds are at 5.00!
The results on FP3 will reveal the pace of each team’s qualifying speeds. If a McLaren driver tops FP3, then it means Hamilton will likely take pole position.
The race looks a bit unpredictable at this stage as there are quite a few overtaking spots on this track. This track consists long straight, fast and slow corners. With the use of DRS, it will definitely be an exciting race to watch!
Recommended Bets:
- Pole Position – Hamilton 5.00
Korean Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.72
Hamilton: 5.00
Button: 6.50
Webber: 7.50
Alonzo: 11.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 101.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.37
Button: 4.00
Hamilton: 4.50
Alonzo: 6.50
Webber: 8.00
Massa: 51.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 101.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.67
Hamilton: 1.67
Alonzo: 1.91
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 7.50
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 17.00
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F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Korean Grand Prix 2011
Thursday, October 13, 2011
In 2010, Korean Grand Prix was a major turning point to the championship.
On the soaking wet race track of Korean International Circuit, the then championship points leader Mark Webber crashed out, and his teammate Sebastian Vettel had a mechanical failure to his car while leading the race. The race victory was handed to Fernando Alonzo, and this gave him a chance to still be a driver’s title contender in the final race of the year – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
In contrast, the championship is already decided when Formula One arrives in Korea in 2011.
As the result of Japanese Grand Prix, the bookmakers have now lengthened the odds on Vettel to win the race. For the first time since Italian Grand Prix, Vettel’s odds are beyond 2.00.
The weather forecast shows it is a cloudy Friday, but sunny on both Saturday and Sunday. The ambient temperature will be on top of around 24 degrees – much similar to the conditions in Suzuka last week.
F1 Betting Strategy
On a circuit where there is no data to look at on the dry conditions, plus the supersoft tyres brought by Pirelli, there are more questions than answers to who has the upper hand at this stage.
The strategy on betting Alguersuari to finish in top 10 has not gone well since Singapore Grand Prix.
This is because the midfield teams that made to qualifying session 3 are now choosing not to set a lap time and save a set of tyres for the race.
We will see some more of this happening in qualifying session 3 this weekend.
As the championship is over, Pirelli is using this weekend as an opportunity to evaluate their tyres for next year. The super soft compound is usually not suitable for a track like Yeongam.
There are quite a number of unpredictable factors to the race at this stage, and weather is unlikely to be the major one this year.
Let’s see how Friday practice sessions go. Perhaps Red Bull’s pole position streak is coming to an end.
Korean Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.67
Hamilton: 6.00
Webber: 6.50
Button: 6.50
Alonzo: 10.00
Massa: 51.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 101.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.30
Button: 4.00
Hamilton: 5.50
Webber: 7.50
Alonzo: 6.50
Massa: 51.00
Rosberg: 101.00
Schumacher: 101.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.67
Hamilton: 1.80
Alonzo: 1.83
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 6.50
Rosberg: 13.00
Schumacher: 15.00
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