F1 Post Race Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
The 2011 Brazilian Grand Prix turned out to be a dry race, but the winner was a surprise.
Vettel for the second race in a row suffered mechanical failure. The previous race in Abu Dhabi it was a puncture in the right rear tyre that forced him to retire. This time it was a problem with the gearbox.
Looking at Mark Webber’s performance this year, it was difficult to imagine he would win a race with consistent poor results from the race starts. However Webber pulled himself together on this final race of the year. He maintained second position after the race start, and just when Vettel was forced to slow down due to gearbox problem, Webber was able to inherit Vettel’s position of race leader.
It would have been just another Vettel victory had there been no issue with his gearbox, nevertheless Webber drove brilliantly and finally got himself the first win in the 2011 F1 season.
Mark Webber’s odds to win the race after qualifying were $6.00.
Jenson Button did not have the pace to challenge the Red Bulls in the first stint of the race. He struggled with the new version of Pirelli soft tyres, which is more durable, but perhaps less grip.
Button would have been in a better position to challenge the Red Bulls had there been rain, however it was not the case in Brazilian Grand Prix this year.
The 2011 F1 season is over, the winter break this time is a few weeks shorter than the previous years. That is good news to F1 fans.
The 2012 F1 season will start in Melbourne, Australia on 18th of March. Which is two weeks earlier than the usual time in order to accommodate the 20 races championship.
There will be more races than ever next year, and hopefully there will be more competitions on the championship!
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
The threat of wet weather was there, but it turned out to be a dry qualifying session. As the result, Sebastian Vettel took another pole position and set an all time F1 record of 15 pole positions in one season.
Pirelli’s soft tyre this weekend is said to be more durable than its previous version. Hence there is less likelihood of Vettel’s pace dropping off half way through the race, like he did in Japan.
The threat of wet weather is still there, hence the race will once again be interesting.
Jenson Button has won two of the three wet races this season. Once it starts to rain, or when a wet track is drying up, Button’s race pace will be on a class of his own. His strategy and lap times will be monitored closely by every team.
F1 Betting Strategy
In the dry condition, McLaren should be able to give Red Bull a run for their money. But since it is a Red Bull front row start, there is more chance of Vettel winning another race. Vettel is paying $1.67 to win the race, and Button is paying as far as $5.50.
However the threat of wet weather will not go away. The safest way to bet in wet weather condition is not to bet at all, but if any bet is to be placed, then it has got to be Button to win the race.
It has been said Button is exceptionally brilliant in changeable weather conditions, he may not be as quick as other elite drivers such as Hamilton, Vettel and Alonzo in dry conditions, but his record of victories in wet races makes him stands out from the rest.
It is going to be a long race if it rains, but it surely will not be a boring race to watch!
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $5.50
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.67
Button: 5.50
Webber: 6.00
Hamilton: 8.00
Alonzo: 15.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 81.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Podium
Vettel: 1.17
Button: 1.62
Webber: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.72
Alonzo: 2.20
Massa: 11.00
Rosberg: 13.00
Schumacher: 26.00
Points Finish
Sutil: 1.50
Di Resta: 1.80
Senna: 2.10
Alguersuari: 2.63
Petrov: 2.75
Kobayashi: 2.75
Buemi: 2.75
Barrichello: 3.00
Perez: 3.25
Maldonado: 7.00
Trulli: 34.00
Kovalainen: 34.00
D’Ambrosio: 51.00
Ricciardo: 51.00
Liuzzi: 51.00
Glock: 51.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Friday’s practice times reveals it is close between McLaren and Red Bull. However it is very likely that weather will once again play a part in qualifying.
Last year’s qualifying result was affected by wet weather. It was then Williams driver Nico Hulkenburg who took pole position. The front runners failed to set the fastest time of Q3 at the right time, hence there was a surprising result to qualifying!
Hulkenburg lost his race lead right into turn 1 on the first lap.
On a dry condition, Vettel should once again claim pole position. His odds are currently $1.67. Which is slightly longer than his usual odds before qualifying.
However as mentioned, weather will highly likely play its part in qualifying, hence it is better to keep the hands off the bets at this stage.
F1 Betting Strategy
Jenson Button is definitely the guy to put the money on whenever there is change in weather conditions during the race.
Two of his three victories this season have come from wet races, and six of his 12 F1 career victories have come from wet races.
Such record in wet condition speaks for itself.
Qualifying results will not be as important if the race turns out to be wet.
Given the fact that weather in Sau Paulo is difficult to predict. Any bets placed this weekend will be at higher risk than usual.
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $6.00
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.67
Hamilton: 3.50
Webber: 9.00
Button: 10.00
Alonzo: 21.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 201.00
Schumacher: 201.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 2.00
Hamilton: 4.00
Button: 6.00
Webber: 8.50
Alonzo: 11.00
Massa: 51.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Hamilton: 1.45
Button: 1.62
Webber: 1.72
Alonzo: 2.20
Massa: 11.00
Rosberg: 26.00
Schumacher: 26.00
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F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Brazilian Grand Prix 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
The 2011 Formula One season is coming to an end this weekend in Brazil. It has been three races since Vettel clinched the 2011 title, but there is still one race remaining on the calendar.
After an exciting four ways battle in 2010 season, it is hard to believe 2011 would turn out to be Sebastian Vettel’s one man show.
Brazilian Grand Prix has previously held some epic grand finales, such as in 2007 and 2008, but certainly it won’t be as exciting this year.
Vettel had an unfortunate DNF at the opening lap of Abu Dhabi Grand Prix two weeks ago, but fortunately it happened after he had clinched the title. That is a complete contrast to his 2010 campaign.
Without any surprise, Vettel is still bookmaker’s favourite to win pole position and the race. His odds for pole position is $1.62, and to win the race is $1.83.
The weather is Brazil is unpredictable. There are footages of chaos caused by wet weather everywhere on YouTube in Brazilian GP.
F1 Betting Strategy
Pirelli has brought the soft (yellow) and medium (white) compounds of tyres to Brazilian GP.
However the soft compound is a revised version. It is said to be more durable during the race. It will be interesting to see its performance in practice and qualifying. Most of times this season when Pirelli introduces a new compound of tyres, they have received criticisms from drivers and engineers.
Due to the factors of track, variable weather and tyres, putting bet on Vettel to win the race has higher risks than other races this season.
Firstly Vettel’s tyre performance suffered more degradation than Button on a much similar styled high speed track on Japanese Grand Prix three races ago, hence Vettel did not win the race from pole position.
Secondly the variable weather in Sau Paolo, Brazil means there is a very good chance of the race being held at wet condition. Looking at the record this season, Jenson Button is the way to go whenever the race is affected by rain.
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Jenson Button $6.50
Brazilian Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.62
Hamilton: 4.20
Webber: 8.00
Button: 10.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 201.00
Schumacher: 201.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.83
Button: 6.50
Hamilton: 4.33
Webber: 9.00
Alonzo: 9.00
Massa: 56.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.50
Alonzo: 1.91
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 26.00
Schumacher: 26.00
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F1 World Championship Betting Odds – Post Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Winner Without Vettel:
Button (255 pts): 1.17
Alonzo (245 pts): 4.50
Webber (233 pts): 51.00
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F1 Post Race Betting and Strategy Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix seems to be the place that produces unpredictable results.
In 2009, the first ever Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton was in brilliant form in qualifying. A race victory from pole position seemed at ease, but he had to retire from the lead due to mechanical failure.
In 2010, Fernando Alonzo started the race 3rd, and only needed to finish the race 4th in order to win the driver’s title. But Ferrari made an unusual strategic error that had Alonzo stuck behind a much slower Petrov. Alonzo finished 7th eventually.
This year Sebastian Vettel had the car on pole position, he already pulled out some gap after turn 1, but somehow there was a puncture on his right rear tyre. Vettel’s race only lasted one lap.
Vettel starting from pole position and winning the race seems to be the only thing that has happened in F1 this year. But Abu Dhabi continues to bring unpredictable results. His odds to win the race was as short as $1.62.
Hamilton’s odds to win the race were $4.33.
The overtaking on track has improved from last year with the aid of the double DRS zone.
Tyre degradation during the race was not a problem at all. Most driver used the two stops strategy, just as predicted before the weekend. Mark Webber is the only front runner who stopped three times. He successfully got ahead of Massa and finished 4th.
The final race of the 2011 F1 Championship will be Brazilian Grand Prix in two weeks time.
It is a track that consists of high speed corners. Vettel and Webber have each won the Brazilian Grand Prix in the past two years. However as Jenson Button won Japanese Grand Prix in Suzuka this year, which has similar characteristic of high speed corners. It should once again be a tight battle between Red Bull and McLaren.
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F1 Race Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Lewis Hamilton and McLaren looked very strong from all practice session to Qualifying Session 2, unfortunately the change in track temperature in Qualifying Session 3 did not allow Hamilton to get the most out of his MP4-26.
Sebastian Vettel took another pole position and equaled Nigel Mansell’s record of most pole positions (14 pole positions) in one season.
After Hamilton topped FP3, the bookmakers altered the odds on pole position. Vettel and Hamilton were equal favourites to win pole position at the odds of $2.10.
Where as prior to FP3 Vettel was $1.53 and Hamilton was $4.50.
Although there would be a much better payoff if Hamilton had won the pole position, the result on Saturday means the race will be easier to predict.
F1 Betting Strategy
Red Bull has many times proven they are faster in the first couple laps of the race. Therefore as long as Vettel maintains the lead and pulls up more than one second lead when the DRS is activated in lap 4, we will likely be seeing the repeats in results of most races this season – where Vettel just drives off to victory.
Vettel is so far unbeaten on the straight line dominant tracks since the summer break. He should have the victory in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at ease. Especially when the tyres will be durable during the race, and overtaking will likely be once again difficult.
Everything is clearly looking good for Vettel to claim the three-peat in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
There is quite a gap between the medium and the soft compounds of the tyres. However the tyre degradation will improve on the latter part of the race when the track temperature cools down.
The variable factor to the race is once again the change in track temperatures after the sun set. McLaren’s performance dropped as the track temperature cooled down in Q3, let’s see if there will be a same trend on Sunday’s race.
Recommended Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.62
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.62
Hamilton: 4.33
Button: 5.00
Webber: 15.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 101.00
Rosberg: 251.00
Schumacher: 251.00
Podium Finish
Vettel: 1.17
Hamilton: 1.40
Button: 1.45
Webber: 2.10
Alonzo: 2.37
Massa: 15.00
Rosberg: 21.00
Schumacher: 26.00
Petrov: 251.00
Senna: 251.00
Kobayashi: 251.00
Sutil: 151.00
Di Resta: 151.00
Points Finish
Rosberg: 1.22
Schumacher: 1.22
Sutil: 1.62
Di Resta: 1.80
Alguersuari: 2.25
Buemi: 2.10
Petrov: 2.25
Senna: 2.75
Kobayashi: 2.63
Perez: 2.37
Barrichello: 6.50
Maldonado: 8.50
Kovalainen: 34.00
Trulli: 34.00
Glock: 67.00
Ricciardo: 67.00
D’Ambrosio: 67.00
Liuzzi: 67.00
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F1 Qualifying Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Saturday, November 12, 2011
McLaren dominated Friday’s practice sessions as Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonzo both crashed out on Free Practice 2.
McLaren looks very strong this weekend. It is highly likely that Hamilton will steal pole position off Red Bull once again this season.
Hamilton’s odds for pole position is 4.50, as opposed to Vettel’s 1.53.
The last time Hamilton pinched pole position off Vettel was in Korean GP. Vettel however overtook the position back in lap 2 of the race, and never gave the lead back to Hamilton.
Red Bull is usually the faster car on the first stint of the race, hence if Hamilton takes pole position in Abu Dhabi, Vettel still has a good chance on winning the race.
F1 Betting Strategy
The circuit in Korean Grand Prix has some similarities with the circuit in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Both have long straights and combine with slow and fast corners.
Looking at the results in Korea, other than the wet weather affected FP1, McLaren topped FP2 and FP3.
McLaren has so far topped FP1 and FP2 in Abu Dhabi, that is a good sign for McLaren to take their second pole position of the year.
Friday’s tyre evaluations shows tyre degradation during the race will not be too bad, the tyres will last even longer after the sun sets and the track temperature lowers. It is predicted that most teams will stop twice during the race.
This track has not been overtaking friendly so far, we will see whether DRS will help to improve the situation. There were not many overtaking actions in the long straight of Indian Grand Prix two weeks ago. And according to Jenson Button, overtaking won’t be easy during the race.
Looking at the results so far on the weekend, it is better to place money on Hamilton to win pole position than Vettel. Given Hamilton’s odds is as long as 4.50!
The race result will highly depend on the qualifying result.
Recommended Bet
- Pole Position – Hamilton 4.50
Speculating Bet
- Race Winner – Vettel 1.83
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.53
Hamilton: 4.50
Button: 8.50
Webber: 11.00
Alonzo: 17.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.83
Hamilton: 5.00
Button: 5.50
Webber: 10.00
Alonzo: 10.50
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.20
Button: 1.57
Hamilton: 1.57
Alonzo: 2.00
Webber: 2.00
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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F1 Pre Weekend Betting Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2011
Friday, November 11, 2011
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is one of the newest venues on the Formula One calendar. Other than the cars driving through the luxurious hotel building and the marina, one aspect that sets this race apart from the rest is that the race begins in the day and ends at night. This is makes a spectacular scene, but it makes engineers’ jobs more difficult.
Last year this race made a spectacular finish to the season, as Alonzo and Ferrari’s strategic error had them stuck behind Renault’s Petrov for the entire race, and hence cost them the title. (see F1 Post Race Analysis – Abu Dhabi Grand Prix 2010)
Vettel has won the previous two races in Korea and India. He is still by far the favourite to win pole position and the race this weekend.
This circuit has the combination of high speed straight lines, high speed corners and low speed corners. It has a bit of everything, hence it is a great challenge for the teams to get the set ups right.
The weather looks fantastic for racing. The forecast for the weekend is sunny, and ambient temperature will be around 28 degrees Celsius.
This weekend Pirelli has brought the soft (yellow) and the medium (white) tyres.
F1 Betting Strategy
There will be a bit more variables in predicting the pole position this weekend.
Usually it is obvious to tell which is the faster qualifying car by the result of Free Practice 3, as most teams will be running qualifying simulations. However as the sun sets around the time of qualifying, the track temperature will drop towards the end of qualifying. Which is the most crucial part – Q3!
There has only been two races held in Abu Dhabi so far. Sebastian Vettel is the only winner.
Lewis Hamilton had the pole position in 2009 and looked very promising to win the race, but had to retire the race from the lead due to a problem with the brake.
The best strategy right now is to hold onto the bets and look at the result of Free Practice 2. Free Practice 2 is held at the same time as qualifying and the race, hence the data there will be more relevant to the qualifying and the race.
Qualifying should still be a competition between Vettel and Hamilton, but the team that can adapt to the change in track temperature will be the winner on Saturday.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Odds
Pole Position
Vettel: 1.53
Hamilton: 5.50
Webber: 8.00
Button: 8.00
Alonzo: 12.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Race Winner
Vettel: 1.72
Button: 5.00
Hamilton: 6.00
Webber: 8.50
Alonzo: 10.00
Massa: 67.00
Rosberg: 151.00
Schumacher: 151.00
Place
Vettel: 1.17
Button: 1.62
Hamilton: 1.67
Alonzo: 1.91
Webber: 1.91
Massa: 12.00
Rosberg: 17.00
Schumacher: 21.00
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F1 World Championship Betting Odds – Post Indian Grand Prix 2011
Sunday, November 6, 2011
The second place on the driver’s title race has become even clearer on Jenson Button’s second place finish in Indian Grand Prix.
Webber’s race starts have gotten better recently, but still continues to lose positions.
Alonzo continues to get the most out of the disappointing Ferrari F150, but at least he is not in a collision course like Hamilton.
Winner Without Vettel:
Button (240 pts) 1.22
Alonzo (227 pts) 6.00
Webber (221 pts) 8.00
Hamilton (202 pts) 41.00
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- F1 2012 Season Trend – Post Spanish Grand Prix
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